Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 ^Wait til cyclone sees that lol really need this storm to turn his pessimism around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ^Wait til cyclone sees that lol Yeah was gonna say: "do I mention that this would break cyclone's drought now or later?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Good trends tonight to say the least. Nice look here on the GFS Sunday afternoon with warm advection wrapping around the broad 850 mb circulation into northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Solid potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks good. Great track for a lot of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The looks good for *almost* everyone. I-70 and points south in Ohio are completely screwed, and I'm comfortable saying that 5 days out. It has a classic WTOD look to it. Good luck to everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The GFS and ECMWF are basically the same through the first phase of the event. Overrunning/strong frontogenesis centered on I-80 but spreading well north through most of lower Michigan. By Sunday night, the GFS picks up more southern energy and develops a fully mature low while the Euro picks up considerably less this run and is more progressive. Either way, it looks like someone is going to cash in on both phases, and neither will be shabby, so most of us should be happy to varying degrees by sunset on Groundhog's Day. I'm not talking about the Canadian solution. It was stupid, imho. I said I wasn't going to pay attention until T minus 48 hours. Dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 FWIW basically none of the GFS ensembles support that awesome low Sunday night. Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that the solution space is still completely wide open. I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of different looks for that low over the next few days as every run of every model feeds off that 4-corners low in a slightly different fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If we can get the 850mb low to develop like the GEM then we'd be looking at something decent up here. GFS and and Euro aren't far from something salvageable either. DGZ from the GFS pretty much goes from surface to 600mb so what ever qpf we lack, we can possibly make up in snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Amos at IWX said all that needs to be said at this point: NOW ON TO THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCETRENDED MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER...AND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THEMIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SLATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATESUNDAY. 00Z GFS IN PARTICULAR PAINTS AN OMINOUS PICTURE. HOWEVER...APRUDENT AND JUDICIOUS APPROACH IS DEMANDED AT THESE TIME RANGES.CIRCUMSTANCES THAT CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE STORM DEPICTED IN THE 00Z GFSARE COMPLICATED TO SAY THE LEAST...INVOLVING THE INTERACTION OFSOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW AND TWO DISTINCT NORTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVES THAT ARE SHOWN TO PHASE AND PRODUCE A STRONG/NEGATIVELYTILTED TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION HAVE NOTEVEN DEVELOPED YET MUCH LESS BEEN SAMPLED. FURTHERMORE...ENSEMBLEMEMBERS STILL SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AND ECMWF DEPICTS A LESSROBUST CYCLONE. RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN VERY HIGH FORTHIS TIME RANGE. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE ISVERY LOW AT THIS POINT...MUCH LOWER THAN EVEN A TYPICAL DAY5FORECAST. CERTAINLY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY ARE INCREASINGAND THE NEW FORECAST REFLECTS THAT BUT DETAILS REGARDING AMOUNTS ANDTYPES ARE VERY MUCH IN FLUX. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVERTHE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO CHANGE. I say, "Preach it, Euro!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 They justify not even talking about it while still talking about it. Quite a feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 They justify not even talking about it while still talking about it. Quite a feat. I'll say, but they make it work. Woke up this morning with no intention of following this until Friday. Now, the tables have turned. This could potentially be a long term, large scale event for many. As pleasing as the models look (14-18" GFS FTW!), Im not gonna go all in until we get some good samplings. Still, this will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Now wouldn't this be nice? We could call it the 2015 Kumbaya Storm. 6"+ from buckeye to josh to Stebo to Alek to Hoosier/chicago to IWx to cyclone and more... just makes me feel all snuggly inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 FWIW basically none of the GFS ensembles support that awesome low Sunday night. Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that the solution space is still completely wide open. I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of different looks for that low over the next few days as every run of every model feeds off that 4-corners low in a slightly different fashion. I am not sure what you mean that there is not GFS ensemble support. On the PSU eWall there are some GFS ensemble members even stronger and yes some weaker. I am not sure but maybe I am missing something. Here is where I look at the ensembles: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopnew.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow, I did not want to get excited or bummed by model runs until at least Thursday, but tonight's GFS and Euro have my adrenaline flowing. With as boring as it has been and the fact this is the first possible snowstorm to get within 5 days on the models for this area since ???, I will admit it is hard to hold back the excitement too. Honestly though I would like to see several model runs to all continue with a good look before I get too excited (just to much variation right now in the models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Now wouldn't this be nice? We could call it the 2015 Kumbaya Storm. 6"+ from buckeye to josh to Stebo to Alek to Hoosier/chicago to IWx to cyclone and more... just makes me feel all snuggly inside Now thats funny! Lets rename this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 My interest has been piqued. My gut tells me we'll be missed to the south and will end up being another east coast storm. Too far out for comfort. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Definitely encouraging to see the Euro come in all juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GRR stating confidence in models, but not just yet... Latter half of the AFD says 50/50 chance or better that the deeper low happens. Trying to keep an open mind about this, but this will drop several inches for someone nearby. Plenty of time for details and hopefully a bit more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0.3% But WOW if that were to verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 00z GGEM is on board with a similar 00z GFS solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GG rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Im getting a lil pumped but trying to stay reserved this far out. Plow is not coming off the Super Duty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Amos at IWX said all that needs to be said at this point: NOW ON TO THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TRENDED MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER...AND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SLATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IN PARTICULAR PAINTS AN OMINOUS PICTURE. HOWEVER...A PRUDENT AND JUDICIOUS APPROACH IS DEMANDED AT THESE TIME RANGES. CIRCUMSTANCES THAT CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE STORM DEPICTED IN THE 00Z GFS ARE COMPLICATED TO SAY THE LEAST...INVOLVING THE INTERACTION OF SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW AND TWO DISTINCT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT ARE SHOWN TO PHASE AND PRODUCE A STRONG/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION HAVE NOT EVEN DEVELOPED YET MUCH LESS BEEN SAMPLED. FURTHERMORE...ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AND ECMWF DEPICTS A LESS ROBUST CYCLONE. RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME RANGE. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT...MUCH LOWER THAN EVEN A TYPICAL DAY5 FORECAST. CERTAINLY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY ARE INCREASING AND THE NEW FORECAST REFLECTS THAT BUT DETAILS REGARDING AMOUNTS AND TYPES ARE VERY MUCH IN FLUX. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO CHANGE. I say, "Preach it, Euro!" Based on this alone, not quite ready to buy into it, or, at least not buying in to anything over 2"-3". I will follow the thread and wait and see what it looks like by Friday. However, TV mets (Butler, Taft, etc,) are forecasting Sunday to be "snowy", so, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not much for Toronto, naturally.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This thread is kinda quiet, and understandably at this point. Don't think this comes much further nw, if at all. whatever the outcome, my gut says a northern IL,IN,OH, and S WI, MI hit for our sub. going out on a limb, a 6-8" jackpot zone as a very amateur first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Not much for Toronto, naturally.. I don't understand this post. Want to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 6Z GFS followed suit...similar to the other guidance and it's previous 00Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This thread is kinda quiet, and understandably at this point. Don't think this comes much further nw, if at all. whatever the outcome, my gut says a northern IL,IN,OH, and S WI, MI hit for our sub. going out on a limb, a 6-8" jackpot zone as a very amateur first guess. I think it is just that model performance has been so bad this year that getting any too excited about a day 5 storm this year would be a set up for: Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Based on this alone, not quite ready to buy into it, or, at least not buying in to anything over 2"-3". I will follow the thread and wait and see what it looks like by Friday. However, TV mets (Butler, Taft, etc,) are forecasting Sunday to be "snowy", so, we shall see. I think that regardless of whether or not we see the magic on last nights run come to fruition, this will likely be the biggest event of the season for many of us. Model agreement is acceptable, but would love to see them hone in on the big dog. I mean, it shouldn't be hard to top 2.8" out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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