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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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The GFS and ECMWF are basically the same through the first phase of the event.  Overrunning/strong frontogenesis centered on I-80 but spreading well north through most of lower Michigan.  By Sunday night, the GFS picks up more southern energy and develops a fully mature low while the Euro picks up considerably less this run and is more progressive.  Either way, it looks like someone is going to cash in on both phases, and neither will be shabby, so most of us should be happy to varying degrees by sunset on Groundhog's Day.  I'm not talking about the Canadian solution.  It was stupid, imho.

 

I said I wasn't going to pay attention until T minus 48 hours.  Dammit.   :weenie:

 

:snowman:

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FWIW basically none of the GFS ensembles support that awesome low Sunday night.  Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that the solution space is still completely wide open.  I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of different looks for that low over the next few days as every run of every model feeds off that 4-corners low in a slightly different fashion.

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If we can get the 850mb low to develop like the GEM then we'd be looking at something decent up here. GFS and and Euro aren't far from something salvageable either. DGZ from the GFS pretty much goes from surface to 600mb so what ever qpf we lack, we can possibly make up in snow growth.

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Amos at IWX said all that needs to be said at this point:

 

NOW ON TO THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TRENDED MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER...AND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SLATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IN PARTICULAR PAINTS AN OMINOUS PICTURE. HOWEVER...A
PRUDENT AND JUDICIOUS APPROACH IS DEMANDED AT THESE TIME RANGES.

CIRCUMSTANCES THAT CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE STORM DEPICTED IN THE 00Z GFS
ARE COMPLICATED TO SAY THE LEAST...INVOLVING THE INTERACTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW AND TWO DISTINCT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE SHOWN TO PHASE AND PRODUCE A STRONG/NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION HAVE NOT
EVEN DEVELOPED YET MUCH LESS BEEN SAMPLED. FURTHERMORE...ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STILL SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AND ECMWF DEPICTS A LESS
ROBUST CYCLONE. RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN VERY HIGH FOR
THIS TIME RANGE. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AT THIS POINT...MUCH LOWER THAN EVEN A TYPICAL DAY5
FORECAST.
CERTAINLY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY ARE INCREASING
AND THE NEW FORECAST REFLECTS THAT BUT DETAILS REGARDING AMOUNTS AND
TYPES ARE VERY MUCH IN FLUX. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO CHANGE.

 

 

I say, "Preach it, Euro!"

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They justify not even talking about it while still talking about it. Quite a feat.

I'll say, but they make it work.

Woke up this morning with no intention of following this until Friday. Now, the tables have turned. This could potentially be a long term, large scale event for many. As pleasing as the models look (14-18" GFS FTW!), Im not gonna go all in until we get some good samplings. Still, this will be interesting...

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FWIW basically none of the GFS ensembles support that awesome low Sunday night.  Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that the solution space is still completely wide open.  I'm guessing we're going to see a lot of different looks for that low over the next few days as every run of every model feeds off that 4-corners low in a slightly different fashion.

I am not sure what you mean that there is not GFS ensemble support.  On the PSU eWall there are some GFS ensemble members even stronger and yes some weaker. 

 

I am not sure but maybe I am missing something.

 

Here is where I look at the ensembles:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopnew.html#picture

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Wow, I did not want to get excited or bummed by model runs until at least Thursday, but tonight's GFS and Euro have my adrenaline flowing.

With as boring as it has been and the fact this is the first possible snowstorm to get within 5 days on the models for this area since ???, I will admit it is hard to hold back the excitement too.  Honestly though I would like to see several model runs to all continue with a good look before I get too excited (just to much variation right now in the models).

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Amos at IWX said all that needs to be said at this point:

 

NOW ON TO THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

TRENDED MUCH SLOWER...DEEPER...AND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE

MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SLATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE

SUNDAY. 00Z GFS IN PARTICULAR PAINTS AN OMINOUS PICTURE. HOWEVER...A

PRUDENT AND JUDICIOUS APPROACH IS DEMANDED AT THESE TIME RANGES.

CIRCUMSTANCES THAT CONSPIRE TO PRODUCE STORM DEPICTED IN THE 00Z GFS

ARE COMPLICATED TO SAY THE LEAST...INVOLVING THE INTERACTION OF

SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW AND TWO DISTINCT NORTHERN STREAM

SHORTWAVES THAT ARE SHOWN TO PHASE AND PRODUCE A STRONG/NEGATIVELY

TILTED TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION HAVE NOT

EVEN DEVELOPED YET MUCH LESS BEEN SAMPLED. FURTHERMORE...ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS STILL SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AND ECMWF DEPICTS A LESS

ROBUST CYCLONE. RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS ALSO BEEN VERY HIGH FOR

THIS TIME RANGE. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS

VERY LOW AT THIS POINT...MUCH LOWER THAN EVEN A TYPICAL DAY5

FORECAST. CERTAINLY THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY ARE INCREASING

AND THE NEW FORECAST REFLECTS THAT BUT DETAILS REGARDING AMOUNTS AND

TYPES ARE VERY MUCH IN FLUX. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS OVER

THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO CHANGE.

 

 

I say, "Preach it, Euro!"

Based on this alone, not quite ready to buy into it, or, at least not buying in to anything over 2"-3".  I will follow the thread and wait and see what it looks like by Friday. However, TV mets (Butler, Taft, etc,)  are forecasting Sunday to be "snowy", so, we shall see. 

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This thread is kinda quiet, and understandably at this point. Don't think this comes much further nw, if at all. whatever the outcome, my gut says a northern IL,IN,OH, and S WI, MI hit for our sub. going out on a limb, a 6-8" jackpot zone as a very amateur first guess.

I think it is just that model performance has been so bad this year that getting any too excited about a day 5 storm this year would be a set up for: :cliff:

 

Let just say I think most are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic at this point.

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Based on this alone, not quite ready to buy into it, or, at least not buying in to anything over 2"-3".  I will follow the thread and wait and see what it looks like by Friday. However, TV mets (Butler, Taft, etc,)  are forecasting Sunday to be "snowy", so, we shall see. 

 

I think that regardless of whether or not we see the magic on last nights run come to fruition, this will likely be the biggest event of the season for many of us. Model agreement is acceptable, but would love to see them hone in on the big dog.

 

I mean, it shouldn't be hard to top 2.8" out here... :snowing:

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