Gilbertfly Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Almost feel dirty creating another folder on my computer with the date Feb 2nd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Latest GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Earth's atmosphere must have released Josh Smith earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 00z Canadian is too wet (qpf-wise) and unrealistic with its evolution of the surface low at the end. It basically gives the entire state of Michigan over a foot. Not that I'd mind, but the Euro and GFS look a lot more realistic and are pretty similar to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM surface low position at 144 hours is a bit misleading...at 138 it's almost right over Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GGEM surface low position at 144 hours is a bit misleading...at 138 it's almost right over Toronto. Super amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The Earth's atmosphere must have released Josh Smith earlier today. Lets hope there isn't an Achilles heel moment following... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The takeaway here is that the Canadian is on board with the large scale evolution. I couldn't care less if it eventually gets wonky with its handling of the low 138 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Latest UKMET is no where near as amped as the GFS/GGEM, but it has a nice track nonetheless. Looks like a decent hit for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0.1%... The #1 rule of weather forecasting. Don't forecast 18" of snow for Toledo OH. Edit: this GFS run had only 1.0" in 156 hours. I'm not sure how Instantweathermaps.com turned that into 18" of snow in 156 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The 00z Canadian is too wet (qpf-wise) and unrealistic with its evolution of the surface low at the end. It basically gives the entire state of Michigan over a foot. Not that I'd mind, but the Euro and GFS look a lot more realistic and are pretty similar to each other. It seems odd that the low is barreling NNW hours 126-132 just as the trough is starting to take on a negative tilt on the Canadian. But I might just have my snow goggles on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If the fully phased bomb somehow actually pans out when was the last time the Eastern US received 2 blizzards within a week stretch? Some serious energy in the barrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z GEM total QPF. .70" here with .80" for Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GFS took its steroid pills today. Wow. Please let that one verify. Long event for almost the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The #1 rule of weather forecasting. Don't forecast 18" of snow for Toledo OH. Came close last year with 14" falling on the 5-6. Btw what an unreal week that was, 9.5" fell on the 1-2 as well. I will never forget that snowpack, came up to the mailbox almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The #1 rule of weather forecasting. Don't forecast 18" of snow for Toledo OH. Edit: this GFS run had only 1.0" in 156 hours. I'm not sure how Instantweathermaps.com turned that into 18" of snow in 156 hours. Must be factoring in good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The best I could figure is the "hybrid clipper" would be rain, or up to 1" of snow. The "overrunning" event we are talking about, the GFS has 1.06" of water equivalent for Toledo. I couldn't realistically imagine keeping up a 17:1 or 18:1 ratio for a thick layer like that, unless you had LES or mountain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Impressive runs all across the board, Imagine if it fully phased... Some would be measuring in feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I-80 corridor across IA/IL buried with an 1" of QPF. Also looks like a nice lake enhancement signature within the QPF and the upside down V pattern along the lakefront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I-80 corridor across IA/IL buried with an 1" of QPF. Also looks like a nice lake enhancement signature within the QPF and the upside down V pattern along the lakefront. All guidance shows a good LE signal on the western shore of LM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 0z ECMWF doesn't look as good as the GFS at 500mb, but still ends up being a sig event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I-80 corridor across IA/IL buried with an 1" of QPF. Also looks like a nice lake enhancement signature within the QPF and the upside down V pattern along the lakefront. Where's the max band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 All guidance shows a good LE signal on the western shore of LM. Yep I saw it on the GFS too, just forgot to mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 euro qpf12 mw.png euro snow12 mw.png Do u have Buffalo/Toronto as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ^Wait til cyclone sees that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow, I did not want to get excited or bummed by model runs until at least Thursday, but tonight's GFS and Euro have my adrenaline flowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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