Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 MKX pulled the trigger.... WIZ066-071-072-310500-/O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0002.150201T0600Z-150202T0900Z/MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...KENOSHA249 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHLATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHTTHROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO THEEARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR MUCH LESS ATTIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 As usual, the 4km NAM is pretty juicy and hitting the lake enhancement/lake effect nicely with some Alek love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow, if the NAM verifies, Hamilton might have to call in the army!!! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hey your buddy over at WLFI seems to be optimistic! Worst news of the day right there. Meh, I've made my peace with this one. Whatever happens, happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 141 user(s) are reading this topic you can tell this storm has potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Why are you still posting? You said this was a whiff. Maybe i over exaggerated a bit, but I'm still not sold into the idea yet. I'll give it till tomorrow afternoon before i make any conclusions. I think i let my judgements and emotions get to me sometimes. 18z GFS will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good early call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18Z NAM Snow Map: Congrats Toledo!!! Wow send the National Guard to Toledo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As usual, the 4km NAM is pretty juicy and hitting the lake enhancement/lake effect nicely with some Alek love nam4kmFLT_prec_precacc_060.gif 1.37" holy smokes. Likely unrealistically juiced, but impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 JUICE! All celebration and juice comments aside, still have 24hrs for some minor tweaking to take place. But, this one will likely be the first major storm to squarely hit the subform this year. Good hit for Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana & Ohio, and SE Michigan that appears will produce multiple 8"+ reports across the area. Winds will be kicking up into the 15-20mph range Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, which should cause some heavy drifting/whiteout conditions in areas as well. Winter Storm Watches posted from Central Iowa all the way into eastern Ohio. If I had to make a call, I'd say the central core will go under Warnings (NE IL, a good chunk of Nrn IN and OH, plus SE MI), while the fringes get advisories. We shall see though... *readies the snow blower and assorted shovels* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GRR holding off on headlines at this time. Lol But they do mention 20:1 or greater ratios are likely with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Worst news of the day right there. Meh, I've made my peace with this one. Whatever happens, happens. If I have to pick between a Hawk win and a snowstorm.. I'll take the Hawks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow send the National Guard to Toledo! We tend to whiff on these...Lake Erie usually nudges them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 From Gilbert at NIU. Current thinking is that models are overdoing precipitation amounts except forthe GFS. There is concern that dry northeast winds will evaporate at least afew inches of the snow before it hits the ground. As a result, there is someconcern that for Rockford, in a "worst case" scenario, they could only wind upwith a few inches of snow. But, the problem is that the models continue totrack northward with every single run, starting with the run early yesterdayevening. As a result, I do not want to downplay this event for our northerncampuses, and yet, I do think evaporation could hurt the amounts we all getunless the system tracks farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Good briefing from IWX just posted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7KsBoc5OVQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RGEM is a bit further south with the sfc low at 48 compared to the 18z NAM. However, it's also a bit deeper than the NAM and more expansive with the precip shield to the north of the low. Ul trough looks slightly deeper too. Would probably net a similar result beyond 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z RGEM juiced and loaded. Rain/snow line right over LAF at 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RC on the update for LOT ..WINTER STORM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY HEADLINES: HAVE CONTINUED WITH WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. PART OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM IS TIED TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THIS MORNING THAT WAS ONLY PARTIALLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THUS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A VERY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET (80%+) IN TOTAL AMOUNTS TO ISSUE A WARNING. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION PRIMARILY MODERATE SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER...IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL LOWS THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA. ENERGY FROM SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT AND INTERACT WITH A STRONG NORTHERN WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSIFYING WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD BEHIND COLD FRONT EMANATING FROM STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. LONG PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN SNOWS STARTING MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AS TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURS. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS...BUT MAX WET BULB TEMPS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO ANY RA/SN MIX THAT OCCURS SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW...BUT WITH LOWER RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1. CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE IF SYSTEM AND 850 MB LOW TRACK CONTINUES NORTHWARD SHIFT ON GUIDANCE...PARTS OF SOUTHERN CWA MAY FLIRT WITH MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES LATER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE (1/2" TO 1"/HR)...STRENGTHENING 700 MB FGEN LAYING OUT ROUGHLY ALONG I-80 BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN OCCASIONAL HEAVY RATES (1-2"/HR). AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS WILL LINGER INTO LATE SUNDAY...KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW GOING. IN ADDITION...850 MB LOW TRACK IS PROGGED TO TAKE NEARLY IDEAL TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE CWA FROM CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FINALLY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL IL...IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT TRANSITIONING TO TRUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING IN EXCESS OF 200 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LIFT WILL BE THROUGH DGZ AND ALSO HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY INTO NE IL AND EXTREME NW INDIANA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE ADDED BY LAKE EFFECT INTO EARLY MONDAY. DESPITE LONG DURATION PRIMARILY MODERATE SNOW...HAZARD POSED BY THIS STORM IS LIKELY TO BE MAGNIFIED BY STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TRACK OF LOW FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH SPREADING SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE RISES. IF SOME OF THE STRONGER SURFACE LOW SOLUTIONS ON GUIDANCE COME TO FRUITION...THIS WILL BE EVEN MORESO THE CASE. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SNOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY FLUFFY...SO BLOWING SNOW DUE TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH COULD COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW TO RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN OPEN AREAS. ON THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT...WIND GUSTS FROM THE FRICTIONLESS LAKE COULD EVEN TOUCH 40 MPH...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THERE. CONVERGENT LAKE BAND COULD ALSO RESULT IN EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ON THE LAKEFRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY GOING WHILE WINDS DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. AS A FINAL ADDITIONAL NOTE ON THE LAKEFRONT...INCREASING CONCERN FOR AT LEAST MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING IN NE IL BY SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO WAVES BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT. HAVE NOT ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH...BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY. OVERALL...CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GREATER THAN 8 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS IN 24 HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO FORRESTON IL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 88. NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE...INCLUDING THE ROCKFORD METRO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES...BUT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS EVEN IF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS IS NOT MET. RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Rapid developments today! This thread really took off. haha. Like the snowfall map issued and call by LOT also. Though it's likely the NAM may be a bit wet, still liking the chance of reaching 8 or 9". I can't tell you how many times I've seen it snow on Super Bowl Sunday here. Like the part about strong convergence over the lake in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z RGEM juiced and loaded. Rain/snow line right over LAF at 18z Sunday. I wasn't aware LAF shifted to I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RGEM is a bit further south with the sfc low at 48 compared to the 18z NAM. However, it's also a bit deeper than the NAM and more expansive with the precip shield to the north of the low. Ul trough looks slightly deeper too. Would probably net a similar result beyond 48 hrs. It really digs that northern stream wave more than most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Their graphic shows 2-3" IMBY. No wonder the NWS didn't issue any headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Very exciting stuff. Might be our biggest storm since GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Was the s/w fully sampled on the 18z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 From Gilbert at NIU. Current thinking is that models are overdoing precipitation amounts except for the GFS. There is concern that dry northeast winds will evaporate at least a few inches of the snow before it hits the ground. As a result, there is some concern that for Rockford, in a "worst case" scenario, they could only wind up with a few inches of snow. But, the problem is that the models continue to track northward with every single run, starting with the run early yesterday evening. As a result, I do not want to downplay this event for our northern campuses, and yet, I do think evaporation could hurt the amounts we all get unless the system tracks farther north. If it were more than just the GFS showing a much drier scenario I'd give it more thought, but with the ECMWF/UKMET/NAM all much wetter I'm wouldn't be so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z NAM for MKE....Primetime for lake effect snow looks to be around 3z. Inversion heights peak at 6000ft and there’s a nice overlap of convergence and super saturation within the DGZ that will only be a couple thousand feet from the surface. Not to mention, 40mph gusts mixing to the surface as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It really digs that northern stream wave more than most other guidance. I was thinking the same thing just from a cursory look. But when I was comparing the individual H5 height contours to the NAM, I couldn't find a tremendous amount of difference. Then I noticed the RGEM base map is skewed a fair bit to the left. I'm wondering if that's what gives the impression that its wave is more amplified than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wasn't aware LAF shifted to I-70. lol, check your eyesight. Bonus 54 hour map from the 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 part 2 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45571-january-31-february-2nd-winter-storm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Main change over SEMI was to sharpen up the gradient. More QPF south and lesser north. That is probably something we will see some more of too, so it is probably wise to stay cautious if you are on the northern fringes (looking at you, Saginaw/Thumb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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