RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Beautiful tropical Pacific moisture feed with into the southern stream system on water vapor. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS seem to be giving a little credence to a more northerly solution, but overall I'm not a huge fan of the synoptic setup. Quick moving, low amplitude s/w with downstream confluence. Seems like a good candidate for a more sheared out storm but there are always exceptions to the rule. We shall see. I tend to agree with you, but it depends on far south the northern stream wave digs and how far east the southern stream wave can get (as far as the degree of NW shifting and amplification). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 thanks T-Snow....wow....my 11 to 12.5 call has a chance at being under....unprecedented for my calls lol 12:1 ratios give I88 south a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well, the 12z EURO inched north, so I don't think it's time yet to throw in the towel. And temper your expectations. The goal is to get some shovellable snow up here, not a crippling snowstorm. Meh, it shows 0.5-1" at the most. Nothing to get excited about. Edit: Here's a text output for YYZ. ECMWF FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z JAN30 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 18Z 01-FEB -10.2 -14.4 1025 67 73 0.01 537 518 MON 00Z 02-FEB -11.2 -13.3 1022 71 80 0.02 534 517 MON 06Z 02-FEB -13.5 -14.1 1019 75 77 0.02 530 516 MON 12Z 02-FEB -16.6 -15.2 1019 76 38 0.01 526 512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I tend to agree with you, but it depends on far south the northern stream wave digs and how far east the southern stream wave can get (as far as the degree of NW shifting and amplification). I'll suspend drawing any conclusions until after the 0z suite. If the amped camp is wrong we should start to see some corrections back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks for all the snowfall maps! Was thinking yesterday at this time I'd like to instead be in Kenosha for this one. not really a huge difference in locations but this has that kenosha special feel to it. Would like to see that west to east weenie band have a little more curve to the north east.. but one cant complain as the girth of this one is large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Meh, it shows 0.5-1" at the most. Nothing to get excited about. Edit: Here's a text output for YYZ. Ok...you've come to your conclusion. The whiff camp is correct. I'm looking forward to this being the last you have to say on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll suspend drawing any conclusions until after the 0z suite. If the amped camp is wrong we should start to see some corrections back the other way. I'm personally waiting until 12z Saturday... Sometimes, I noticed that models will over-amp storms when they're partially sampled then switch back to the former less-amped solution once full sampling occurs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ok...you've come to your conclusion. The whiff camp is correct. I'm looking forward to this being the last you have to say on the subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 And another miss for St Louis. This winter is a cruel joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm personally waiting until 12z Saturday... Sometimes, I noticed that models will over-amp storms when they're partially sampled then switch back to the former less-amped solution once full sampling occurs... Feeling the same way.... I am not totally buying an 8-12" snowfall for Chicago, I am just not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Stupidly obvious axiom for the day but...EURO coming north will give the UKIE/NAM/RGEM camp a whole lot more credibility. Let's not forget how embarrassingly bad the parallel GFS was before it became the real GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Feeling the same way.... I am not totally buying an 8-12" snowfall for Chicago, I am just not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Feeling the same way.... I am not totally buying an 8-12" snowfall for Chicago, I am just not. Not sure what else you want to see. I feel 8" is a lock, and we have a high ceiling from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Feeling the same way.... I am not totally buying an 8-12" snowfall for Chicago, I am just not. Sometimes the thrill is in the journey..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Going with 9.0" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ron-Paul_Its-Happening1.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Tick, tick, tick...each run of the Euro gets warmer for LAF. Not a good trend for here for sure. Playing the odds for here, like this right now: 75% chance of 1"+ 50% chance of 3"+ 25% chance of 6"+ 0.1% chance of 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GEM solutions are worth considering given that most of the uncertainty has stemmed from arctic energy and not the Pacific energy that everyone has been focusing on. The Canadian model has high resolution that far north. Plus, the whole purpose of that model is to handle Canadian energy well. This is probably why it was the first of all the models to show something similar to the present solutions several days ago. As far as WPC, their model preferences are always just a least-commitment blend of the middle of the road guidance. The fact that they toss out models here and there doesn't mean anything. Plus, everyone on this board knows how to ignore an outlier already. When does the Arctic wave get sampled by a raob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm gonna go with 7-10" for now for LAF, which I feel splits the difference between really going all-in and jumping off a cliff because some models are advertising a blowtorch temp of 33 degrees. 850 mb low passes almost directly overhead on most 12z models (farther south on GGEM) which usually supports max totals being farther north. Still some time to go and might have to adjust but that's my feeling for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looking at 12z NAM soundings for KMDW, temps drop off fast as the low passes to our south. Any lake effect to hit the lake shore will be very high-ratio. As Hoosier mentioned, wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated pockets of 12+ where LE bands are persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not sure what else you want to see. I feel 8" is a lock, and we have a high ceiling from there. Sometimes, my gut just tells me that something isn't right. I can't really explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm gonna go with 7-10" for now for LAF, which I feel splits the difference between really going all-in and jumping off a cliff because some models are advertising a blowtorch temp of 33 degrees. 850 mb low passes almost directly overhead on most 12z models (farther south on GGEM) which usually supports max totals being farther north. Still some time to go and might have to adjust but that's my feeling for now. Sounds like a reasonable call. I like IND's slightly more cautious 6-9" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sometimes, my gut just tells me that something isn't right. I can't really explain it. This is a good way to get banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is a good way to get banned. Hmmm. well, I certainly don't want that. I like this board too much. So, I will be quiet now, and let this play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well this one has certainly trended more interesting the past few days. I'll counter Tim's gut feeling and admit that I have felt good about this one. Even better - it looks like much of the storm will be during daylight hours around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sometimes, my gut just tells me that something isn't right. I can't really explain it. Any meteorological evidence to back this up? Seems like a lot of things are going in one direction right now, and it isn't towards a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sounds like a reasonable call. I like IND's slightly more cautious 6-9" right now. If totals like this work out, should be interesting. Seems like most of our 6+ storms lately have been of the fluffier variety. I dig a wetter snow every now and then. Radar is probably going to look ominous tomorrow with a big slug of rain advancing toward us, but should get enough evaporational cooling to enable us to start as snow or, at worst, a very brief shot of rain at onset. Then all eyes are on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Any meteorological evidence to back this up? Seems like a lot of things are going in one direction right now, and it isn't towards a bust. None whatsoever. And, I am not trying to preach "bust" or create any kind of conflict.. Also, it bears no further discussion, because it was kind of a stupid remark, and I probably should have kept that to myself. So,I will just read, until I have something useful to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 9.5 in my hourly....no update on the map yet from LOT....but the AFD covered everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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