afterimage Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 5 days out...can we please avoid the storm cancel/debbie downer posts? +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Highest snowfall amounts on the 12z GGEM are across Southern Wisconsin/far Northern Illinois with 3-5" and Northern Kentucky and Southern Indiana with 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ggem wxbell....includes the clipper on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 12Z GFS ensembles are all over the place yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Indiana look on the 12z GGEM. IND needs to score in one of these. Nice LAF sucker hole, but models seem to love doing that for some reason. Certainly doesn't always translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Track of the low looks like a good set up for lake enhancement along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. Hopefully we get this to produce. I see some potential in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 12Z GFS ensembles are all over the place yet. yes they are. This one has a lot of ups and downs to go through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12z Canadian is proposing a split precip field, one north through Chicago and another wave south along the Ohio River. I'm not buying this idea, it's like a woman not knowing which outfit to buy so she gets them both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Track of the low looks like a good set up for lake enhancement along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. Hopefully we get this to produce. I see some potential in this system. That will be worth watching. On the GFS, thermodynamics/inversion heights improve with time but the flow starts backing more N/NW by that time, putting more of the emphasis on IN/MI. But I suppose it doesn't pay to get into details at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Euro is wetter so far through 108hr compared to the 0z run across se NE/KS/IA/MO with the sfc low down in TX a hair stronger. Should still be a solid run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 1002mb on the KY/TN border WNW of Knoxville at 132hr, quite a bit stronger than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sfc low ends up quite a bit stronger, down to 997mb after that and a significant snow event central IN and northern half of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMH crusher....way too early to get the perfect storm modeled edit: just saw those snow maps....not perfect phew...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 00z Euro run was a nice hit for Ohio. 150 hr forecast shows snow for nearly all of IN, OH, PA. It is hard to estimate total QPF by just looking at Wunderground though. The fact that there are some values over 0.175" per 3hrs is nice- maybe up to 3" of snow in 6hrs or 6" of snow in 12hrs. I find it a little fishy that the Euro and GFS have changed so much with this southwestern storm (Texas low) in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 1002mb on the KY/TN border WNW of Knoxville at 132hr, quite a bit stronger than the 0z run. usually a decent location for us....very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMH crusher....way too early to get the perfect storm modeled edit: just saw those snow maps....not perfect phew...lol Instead you're riding the rain/snow line again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 usually a decent location for us....very nice I like where we sit for the good, long duration period of advection/overrunning snows. I don't know how the evolution of the main sfc low will play out but the trends are nice. LAF brothers should be feelin' pretty good about this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Instead you're riding the rain/snow line again. shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I like where we sit for the good, long duration period of advection/overrunning snows. I don't know how the evolution of the main sfc low will play out but the trends are nice. LAF brothers should be feelin' pretty good about this run. yeah...little cairo is tops for bigger dogs....but as you said, for over running with the modeled strength of the SLP at this juncture...we're sitting pretty good. Very difficult to pin down convectively driven inhibition of the QPF shield up this way at this point...can only watch the trends as we progress through the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Quite simply, this morning's Euro digs the northern stream enough to grab much of the sw conus energy/moisture and pull it up into our region while the GFS is flatter and doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GEFS all over the board with that system still. Euro is pretty big hit. There might be something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Euro has a nice phase, the GFS is a semi phase, the GEM is an overrunning event. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 CMH crusher....way too early to get the perfect storm modeled edit: just saw those snow maps....not perfect phew...lol It's too soon to worry about details that are 2° from freezing. Lol. I'll be losing some sleep tracking this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lots of solid Euro ensemble members with even some big dogs mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 euro ens are all over the place... but overall the take away is weaker and a bit more southeast then the OP, which you'd expect. The control looks identical to the ggem. Thunder's/\ right there are some good hits on the individuals for just about everyone lol. Low placements fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NOT SAYING THIS STORM IS GOING TO DO THIS but one thing keep in mind that the NE Blizzard was just an advisory storm 3 days ago (Saturday morning AFDs were not much happening then the 12Z run changed everything). My point being I think one or more of these storms in Feb/March will be significant here in the GLs but may not look like much until we are within 3 days of the storm. Plus obviously this year there will be a lot of model discrepancy involved. This winter we are just not going to have one of those GHD like 7 tracking day storms with known model biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 euro ens are all over the place... but overall the take away is weaker and a bit more southeast then the OP, which you'd expect. The control looks identical to the ggem. Thunder's/\ right there are some good hits on the individuals for just about everyone lol. Low placements fwiw... I would love to see that 999mb over Cleveland (sorry I know you wouldn't ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I see potential...lots of potential. Still a few days out yet, but this looks to be one of the most promising storms so far this winter for a good portion of the sub-forum. I'm not getting my chops set yet, however. Too much uncertainty. Don't have the time this week to obsess over the models (I'll leave that to the pros ), but I am looking forward to how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 18Z GFS going back to supressed turd form for this storm, tracking into NC at 132h, probably ok for you guys in the extreme southern portion of this subforum anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 18z GFS fairly good for decent chunks of IA, IL, IN, and OH. I'd certainly hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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