Ajdos Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh my gosh I remember that storm. The Virga storm from hell!!! There was one point it started snowing and I think some sneezed in Port Huron and push the dry air back into the storm (baam Virga). We end with a couple inches but you watched composite radar it looked like we were should have been buried with 12"+. That was a historic Virga storm. I don't expect that with this storm at all but we will see the famed donut-hole for a bit on DTX radar at the start. I know I will be annoyed for an hour or so. Hopefully we can get a decent moisture surge so it doesn't last very long. Terrible storm... I was so mad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh my gosh I remember that storm. The Virga storm from hell!!! There was one point it started snowing and I think some sneezed in Port Huron and push the dry air back into the storm (baam Virga). We end with a couple inches but you were to rewatch composite radar it looks like we were should have been buried with 12"+. That was a historic Virga storm. I don't expect that with this storm at all but we will see the famed donut-hole for a bit on DTX radar at the start. I know I will be annoyed for an hour or so. Hopefully we can get a decent moisture surge so it doesn't last very long. Was that the Jan 4-5, 2004 storm? I remember that being a huge bust here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WSW up for IWX and LOT right behind them... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENINGTHROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* HEAVY SNOW...6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE* BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENINGCONFIDENCE...* CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS AND THEEXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wpc likes a 12z GFS/00z Euro blend says the Nam and Rgem too north to a extent and the cmc to suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wpc likes a 12z GFS/00z Euro blend says the Nam and Rgem too north to a extent and the cmc to suppressed 12z GEM coming in now and looking more like the 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 First crack at snow amounts.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Watches up from IWX and LOT. LOT says >6" north of 88, >8" south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 DVN just hoisted too. Hooray for inter-office collaboration! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Watches up from IWX and LOT. LOT says >6" north of 88, >8" south. Nice start but I think they'll bump those numbers up some with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GGEM has a track similar to the 12z GFS/0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Was that the Jan 4-5, 2004 storm? I remember that being a huge bust here as well. Yes that is it ... paper cut / lemon juice baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol @ 12z Ukie. Staying consistent along with the NAM with its northern track.... 60 hours out and the battle between the models continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS Snow Map: That snow fall map doesn't seem to jive with these 12z GFS maps at hours 60 & 63, look at the 850 along the Ohio river, looks like south of the I-70 gets hammered with snow, not north of I-70? Am I looking at these wrong... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150130+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=063&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150130+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Uncle Ukie going sub 1000 and with decent comma head feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy Uncle Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GEM. .80" here/88 corridor/Chicago with .90" south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy Uncle Ukie Ukie is my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 should be a decent show along the lake in ALEK ville.... winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That snow fall map doesn't seem to jive with these 12z GFS maps at hours 60 & 63, look at the 850 along the Ohio river, looks like south of the I-70 gets hammered with snow, not north of I-70? Am I looking at these wrong... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150130+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=063&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150130+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Surface temps are warmer south of I-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS and Canadian seem to be thinking along the same lines... let's see that 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Ukie total QPF. Wow. Congrats cyclone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We drew the over/under at 10.0" and I took the over. Since everyone likes to makes unrealistically deterministic predictions... I'll go 11.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Track of the low looks like a good set up for lake enhancement along the south and southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. Hopefully we get this to produce. I see some potential in this system. Proud of myself for this one. Hopefully I don't jinx this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy blizzard on the Ukie. Well I mention blizzard conditions in the AFD at least. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy blizzard on the Ukie. Well I mention blizzard conditions in the AFD at least. Sent from my SM-G900V Nice. Greater than 8" along/southeast of Winthrop Harbor to Dixon line? I like it and agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy blizzard on the Ukie. Well I mention blizzard conditions in the AFD at least.Sent from my SM-G900V It's definitely worth noting anyway, especially with it being the seasons first "real" snowfall lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not too worried yet. I suspect we'll see some correction south at the last minute. Even the NAM is still 98% snow even if surface Ts pop a bit above freezing. Gotta admit that I'm getting nervous, but you're right that the NAM is mostly snow. A slightly cooler trend at the surface would sure help. One thing that's becoming increasingly clear is that this should be a real paste job for us, until the latter stage of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gotta admit that I'm getting nervous, but you're right that the NAM is mostly snow. A slightly cooler trend at the surface would sure help. One thing that's becoming increasingly clear is that this should be a real paste job for us, until the latter stage of the storm. I would be surprised to see your precip values edge up, but snowfall amounts stay the same.... You'll be moving wet concrete for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gotta admit that I'm getting nervous, but you're right that the NAM is mostly snow. A slightly cooler trend at the surface would sure help. One thing that's becoming increasingly clear is that this should be a real paste job for us, until the latter stage of the storm. I don't like our snowfall chances at all, but even a couple of inches on top of a decent slug of rainfall should make for quite the skating rink on Monday. Might be pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd say the 12z GEFS as a whole are slightly further north than the OP, but nothing jaw dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.