RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bumping up snow amounts in the grids. Solid warning amounts across the CWA now. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bumping up snow amounts in the grids. Solid warning amounts across the CWA now. Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I know this is a dumb question, but what does DAB mean? dusting at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Liking the way the models are looking, however, we have a lot of dry air to overcome. Not sure if that's going to be much of an issue, but it's a negatating factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am not sure what you mean by trouble ... you mean trouble by more snow if it comes more north?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah, of course. I can happen. But there are also instances, like that of the early January clipper, where 20:1 ratios were being throw around like they were candy. I don't think that came close to verifying. Very true. I pretty much count on 10:1 ratios storm 0 to -9C at the 850; 12:1 for storms <-9C and 15:1 for LES IMBY. I know this is just a gross generalization of a complicated calculation. If I get better ratios I consider them a bonus and any thing less all I can say is what can you do. Funny thing is DTX's AFD before that storm they noted the ratios would be closer to 12:1 as they mentioned something specific they didn't like for high ratios. I don't remember the exact details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think about 50 miles more north or so would be ideal for Hamilton. But already looking good for sure. We should have a good idea by 00 tonight. Sorry about above post my phone didn't like the quoting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Liking the way the models are looking, however, we have a lot of dry air to overcome. Not sure if that's going to be much of an issue, but it's a negatating factor.Long duration if the storm should help mitigate this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS not going to play ball with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No big changes on the GFS compared to the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 First call for NW Ohio is 6-10". Has that classic cutting look to it with the low developing out of Kansas. Typically ones from there bode pretty well for the region. Only thing is I have not seen the models tilt the swath a bit, not to say it's not possible but typically with these systems it's at least a little SW-NE oriented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Liking the way the models are looking, however, we have a lot of dry air to overcome. Not sure if that's going to be much of an issue, but it's a negatating factor. Always an issue around here. I normally knock off a couple inches from the models due to dry air. The NWS DTX office is pretty good about including it in their forecast. In fact several years ago (8-9 years) I had a really good talk to one of the DTX METS (no longer works there) about the dry air we constantly fight here with storms as it seem we fight it more than other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GFS continues to be drier than most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS not going to play ball with the NAM. A bit weaker Pacific Vort than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On a conference call with WPC and Paul Kocin is on the call. Awesome. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Interesting tidbit from ILX AFD. Area Forecast DiscussionNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL947 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2015.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 945 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015Little change needed to the morning forecast, but did update hightemperatures a degree or two in some areas. Band of altocumulusin the upper Mississippi Valley is tracking southeast, but thetrajectory would favor the thicker clouds staying just to ournortheast. Some increase in cirrus expected from the west as well,but skies generally to remain mostly sunny as ridge axis moves ontop of us.Early look at the 12Z NAM for this weekend continues to favor thenorthern half of the forecast area for the heavier snow amounts,with the GFS just starting to arrive. Will be coordinating withWPC and neighboring offices on any headlines, which may be issuedbefore the regular afternoon forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS still solid hit and then slams the lake shore with that LE plume. I'm going all in for this one...solid 6-12 across the LOT CWA with more as you head towards the lake shore. First and final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Any Tips from Paul Kocin, Ricky? (I'm a grad student @ NIU) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The GFS continues to be drier than most other guidance. Perhaps more realistic. Looks like a solid 6-10 inch event as it stands now through Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On a conference call with WPC and Paul Kocin is on the call. Awesome. Sent from my SM-G900V Monday morning commute could be dicey too for the chi-metro.... after that....the plume goes all the way to Champaign then Lafayette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS still solid hit and then slams the lake shore with that LE plume. I'm going all in for this one...solid 6-12 across the LOT CWA with more as you head towards the lake shore. First and final call. Great minds think alike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Always an issue around here. I normally knock of a couple inches from the models due to dry air. The NWS DTX office is pretty good about including it in their forecast. In fact several years ago (8-9 years) I had a really good talk to one of the DTX METS (no longer works there) about the dry air we constantly fight here with storms as it seem we fight it more than other areas. I agree. Luckily it's a long duration event like hm8 said earlier. I remember one time in particular (2004ish) where we had winter storm watches posted 36 hours out, models all in agreement (even the ETA - remember that??), then warnings posted, but low and behold the dry air won that battle. Ended up with less than an inch. It was brutal. Luckily this system has a lot going for it. Gulf/Pacific moisture and some potent cold air - upper 20's at the MI/IN/OH to 0° at the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Perhaps more realistic. Looks like a solid 6-10 inch event as it stands now through Chicago area.It's possible, but the ECMWF being much wetter has me hesitant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wouldn't be shocked if we ultimately see the models windshield wipe back south a bit but still, pretty spot on call by him (via text message) from a few days back.This is my gut feeling as well. But if I can be greedy, I'm hoping for a bit more digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not sure how much was sampled on the 12z GFS but it seems like most of the energy is still off shore. The southern stream is fully sampled by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It could be a case of the GFS being a bit too dry and the NAM as typical being overdone with QPF. Would like to see the Euro lock in similar to the 00z run. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Perhaps more realistic. Looks like a solid 6-10 inch event as it stands now through Chicago area. I am feeling a little more bullish, I think 8-12 across LOT. Dont lock me in, will change my guess at least 2 more times, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I agree. Luckily it's a long duration event like hm8 said earlier. I remember one time in particular (2004ish) where we had winter storm watches posted 36 hours out, models all in agreement (even the ETA - remember that??), then warnings posted, but low and behold the dry air won that battle. Ended up with less than an inch. It was brutal. Luckily this system has a lot going for it. Gulf/Pacific moisture and some potent cold air - upper 20's at the MI/IN/OH to 0° at the bridge. Oh my gosh I remember that storm. The Virga storm from hell!!! There was one point it started snowing and I think some sneezed in Port Huron and push the dry air back into the storm (baam Virga). We end with a couple inches but you were to rewatch composite radar it looks like we were should have been buried with 12"+. That was a historic Virga storm. I don't expect that with this storm at all but we will see the famed donut-hole for a bit on DTX radar at the start. I know I will be annoyed for an hour or so. Hopefully we can get a decent moisture surge so it doesn't last very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 11 inches for MBY ... if the plume indeed gets cranking, then perhaps add 1 to 1.5 inches as he works through.... first/final/only call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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