Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Going to tough, if not impossible, with the downstream confluence to get this thing to come so far north as to bullseye us, but we're at least in the conversation for some accumulating snow. We have that Hudson Bay/Quebec Vort to fight. A decent piece of Arctic Vort was suppose to come in and strength the southern part of that Bay Vort. This Arctic piece has been significantly diminished in these past few model runs which has help us with this north trend (as well as a stronger Pacific Vort moving in). As long as we can continue with a weak Arctic Vort & stronger Pac Vort it will be our advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 4 KM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Depends where you are. Downtown usually needs a pure easterly flow (090). Oh thanks! I think for YYZ/Etobicoke/Western regions of Peel, an ESE or ENE wind is ideal right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam depicting some decent frontogentic forcing to the NW of the low. Around .2" of qpf near the Twin Cities. Was just going to post that. Throw in some cold air and pretty good ratios, and that fluffs up to our biggest snow of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OUCH! Nice cold rain to boot! Kudos to Hoosier. He was expressing concern about temps yesterday, and I scoffed. Last time I'll ever be optimistic about anything weather. Good luck to those up north. Looking good to break cyclone's drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not too worried yet. I suspect we'll see some correction south at the last minute. Even the NAM is still 98% snow even if surface Ts pop a bit above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh thanks! I think for YYZ/Etobicoke/Western regions of Peel, an ESE or ENE wind is ideal right? I assume you mean eastern Peel. And no, I'd say 90 is ideal for them too, although you can get action with slight variations to that. ENE favours west Mississauga and Oakville more, NE Burlington and Hamilton, etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A bit more of a north shift and we could be in trouble here in Hamilton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I assume you mean eastern Peel. And no, I'd say 90 is ideal for them too, although you can get action with slight variations to that. ENE favours west Mississauga and Oakville more, NE Burlington and Hamilton, etc, etc. So you think LES looks good for west Mississauga this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised to see a further shift north with more forcing - I think this will dig.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A bit more of a north shift and we could be in trouble here in Hamilton! You're already looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Based on instantwxmaps looks more like 3-6" to me, but given the qpf that must be indicative of some decent ratios. H7/850 centres pass right over/just to the south of us which places us in an area where often good snow growth occurs. DTX mentioned the possibility of 16 or 17:1 ratios at the northern fringes of the system, which is where we're currently sitting. Liking these trends. 00Z tonight I think we will be pretty much locked in on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So you think LES looks good for west Mississauga this weekend? Based purely off the 12z NAM, no. Basically has a 45 degree flow for the entire event which has too much of a northerly component for anyone north of Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A bit more of a north shift and we could be in trouble here in Hamilton! I am not sure what you mean by trouble ... you mean trouble by more snow if it comes more north?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 DTX mentioned the possibility of 16 or 17:1 ratios at the northern fringes of the system, which is where we're currently sitting. Liking these trends. 00Z tonight I think we will be pretty much locked in on the track. I am a bit wary because a lot of times these juicy ratios are thrown around based on nothing more than the rationale that it's colder further north. Obviously, that's not how it works. I haven't read the DTX disco. Maybe they're basing it on snow growth physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z RGEM at 48 looks pretty similar to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Crazy to think that 4 years ago today we were about ready for GHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z RGEM digs the wave even more than the NAM at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With ratios improving by Sunday afternoon even far SE WI could be looking at 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With ratios improving by Sunday afternoon even far SE WI could be looking at 12". Trying to remain optimistic. Positive vibes only. Would love to see this pan out. Especially the aforementioned LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am a bit wary because a lot of times these juicy ratios are thrown around based on nothing more than the rationale that it's colder further north. Obviously, that's not how it works. I haven't read the DTX disco. Maybe they're basing it on snow growth physics. There have been several storms which Josh and I get around the same amount of snow or I end up more than him but his water content is a good amount higher than MBY. Not saying this is going to happen this time but it does happen here a bit of course I am at about 500' higher elevation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Have to love the size of the snow swath depicted on the Canadian. Now that's what I call spread the wealth. 12Z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Trying to remain optimistic. Positive vibes only. Would love to see this pan out. Especially the aforementioned LES. Chicago metro would be crushed verbatim. Media starting to pay attention to this one around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 First call, esp looking at 12z GFS......DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z RGEM at 48 looks pretty similar to the 12z NAM. Yeah really digging the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There have been several storms which Josh and I get around the same amount of snow or I end up more than him but his water content is a good amount higher than MBY. Not saying this is going to happen this time but it does happen here a bit of course I am at about 500' higher elevation too. Yeah, of course. It can happen. But there are also instances, like that of the early January clipper, where 20:1 ratios were being throw around like they were candy. I don't think that came close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With ratios improving by Sunday afternoon even far SE WI could be looking at 12". And....precip isn't done falling yet at that point (via the 4k) in the area you are discussing.... lookin' good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Alek is all aboard for those keeping score.Wouldn't be shocked if we ultimately see the models windshield wipe back south a bit but still, pretty spot on call by him (via text message) from a few days back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the 12z GFS is hair further west with the s/w at 36, but nothing monumental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I know this is a dumb question, but what does DAB mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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