dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Definitely a trend at this point. And the s/w as far as I can tell is still only partially sampled as of today's 12z suite. 00z runs tonight will tell the full story I think, but if the 12z runs come in more juiced for us even with the wave only partially sampled, that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Snow drought looking like it's going to continue.. Eh, January was good here...but we aren't going to start February off very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Regarding the arctic energy coming down, satellite data is poor over the poles. Sampling of that energy via satellite has only gotten better with time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Here we go. Wetter and stronger at 45hr. Going to be an even bigger run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z ukie will be interesting. Although the 00z ukie was amped last night (and you could argue that the 06z nam moved in that direction), there is still a big difference in the orientation of the heavy snow band. For example, 00z ukie had 12+ inches for kc, and the 06z nam had essentially zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ouch for here. 33 and rain looking pretty solid right now. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015013012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM Looking good north of I-70. Not bad across MN either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ouch for here. 33 and rain looking pretty solid right now. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015013012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054 OUCH! Nice cold rain to boot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The D. Officially in the game. Condolences to my LAF friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 00z runs tonight will tell the full story I think, but if the 12z runs come in more juiced for us even with the wave only partially sampled, that's a good sign. Going to tough, if not impossible, with the downstream confluence to get this thing to come so far north as to bullseye us, but we're at least in the conversation for some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Regarding the arctic energy coming down, satellite data is poor over the poles. Sampling of that energy via satellite has only gotten better with time as well. It has been interesting to watch the 3 major pieces of Vort affecting this storm. 36 hours ago the Arctic one had a significant change from the amped models that caused things to be suppressed/crushed. This arctic vort is now become less and less of a player in the last 24 hours which has allowed the Pacific Vort not get crushed and in turn dig and amp things again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Going to tough, if not impossible, with the downstream confluence to get this thing to come so far north as to bullseye us, but we're at least in the conversation for some accumulating snow. Absolutely agree. Not looking at a foot but at least 2-3" perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ouch for here. 33 and rain looking pretty solid right now. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015013012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054 What an cruel change of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Really pulling for Cyclone. 12z NAM has a 1.2" max right on his backyard and I'd love nothing more than to see that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What are the significant differences between this event and the Christmas Eve event? As I recall it trended north at roughly 48 hours only to trend dramatically southeast again within 24 hours? Any similarities or differences that would prevent that again? Understood every storm is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM with 1.00"+ QPF at ORD. Decent area of 1.20"+ QPF across N-C. IL. Instantwxmaps only has up to 12" on the snowfall map in this area, so it must be taking into account very low ratios, otherwise 12-18" would look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Absolutely agree. Not looking at a foot but at least 2-3" perhaps? 12z Nam has 5-7" for the GTA which isn't bad at all. Potential is there for some LES influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What an cruel change of events. Yes, quite the turn in the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nam depicting some decent frontogentic forcing to the NW of the low. Around .2" of qpf near the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Absolutely agree. Not looking at a foot but at least 2-3" perhaps? 12z NAM looks good for about 0.3" QPF, so yeah, that sounds fine. Maybe a bit more if the trend's not quite finished. Hamilton might get destroyed in a setup like this. 24 hours of NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What are the significant differences between this event and the Christmas Eve event? As I recall it trended north at roughly 48 hours only to trend dramatically southeast again within 24 hours? Any similarities or differences that would prevent that again? Understood every storm is unique.It's a totally different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What an cruel change of events. Oh that's just mean. My optimistic look is becoming more and more disgruntled. Northward trend has not been our friends in Central IN these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM looks good for about 0.3" QPF, so yeah, that sounds fine. Maybe a bit more if the trend's not quite finished. Hamilton might get destroyed in a setup like this. 24 hours of NE flow. Setup almost looks similar to V-day 2007. I think hamilton got nearly 2 1/2 feet of snow just from lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM looks good for about 0.3" QPF, so yeah, that sounds fine. Maybe a bit more if the trend's not quite finished. Hamilton might get destroyed in a setup like this. 24 hours of NE flow. If I'm not mistaken, Toronto would need a ESE or ENE wind off Lake Ontario to get LES influence, right? I always get the parameters mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Nam has 5-7" for the GTA which isn't bad at all. Potential is there for some LES influence. Based on instantwxmaps looks more like 3-6" to me, but given the qpf that must be indicative of some decent ratios. H7/850 centres pass right over/just to the south of us which places us in an area where often good snow growth occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Alek is all aboard for those keeping score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If I'm not mistaken, Toronto would need a ESE or ENE wind off Lake Ontario to get LES influence, right? I always get the parameters mixed up. Depends where you are. Downtown usually needs a pure easterly flow (090). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Based on instantwxmaps looks more like 3-6" to me, but given the qpf that must be indicative of some decent ratios. H7/850 centres pass right over/just to the south of us which places us in an area where often good snow growth occurs. Its a sharp cut-off. The strong PV and mini 50-50 Low off the coast of Newfoundland will prevent this storm from going to far north, but theirs still some room for another shift northwards (maybe 50-100 miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What are the significant differences between this event and the Christmas Eve event? As I recall it trended north at roughly 48 hours only to trend dramatically southeast again within 24 hours? Any similarities or differences that would prevent that again? Understood every storm is unique. Moisture mostly. This storm has an ample supply of it with a decent cold air pool to support more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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