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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Definitely a trend at this point. And the s/w as far as I can tell is still only partially sampled as of today's 12z suite.

00z runs tonight will tell the full story I think, but if the 12z runs come in more juiced for us even with the  wave only partially sampled, that's a good sign.

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00z runs tonight will tell the full story I think, but if the 12z runs come in more juiced for us even with the  wave only partially sampled, that's a good sign.

 

Going to tough, if not impossible, with the downstream confluence to get this thing to come so far north as to bullseye us, but we're at least in the conversation for some accumulating snow.

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Regarding the arctic energy coming down, satellite data is poor over the poles. Sampling of that energy via satellite has only gotten better with time as well.

It has been interesting to watch the 3 major pieces of Vort affecting this storm.  36 hours ago the Arctic one had a significant change from the amped models that caused things to be suppressed/crushed.  This arctic vort is now become less and less of a player in the last 24 hours which has allowed the Pacific Vort not get crushed and in turn dig and amp things again.

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Going to tough, if not impossible, with the downstream confluence to get this thing to come so far north as to bullseye us, but we're at least in the conversation for some accumulating snow.

Absolutely agree. Not looking at a foot but at least 2-3" perhaps?

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What are the significant differences between this event and the Christmas Eve event? As I recall it trended north at roughly 48 hours only to trend dramatically southeast again within 24 hours? Any similarities or differences that would prevent that again? Understood every storm is unique.

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What are the significant differences between this event and the Christmas Eve event? As I recall it trended north at roughly 48 hours only to trend dramatically southeast again within 24 hours? Any similarities or differences that would prevent that again? Understood every storm is unique.

It's a totally different setup.
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12z NAM looks good for about 0.3" QPF, so yeah, that sounds fine. Maybe a bit more if the trend's not quite finished.

 

Hamilton might get destroyed in a setup like this. 24 hours of NE flow.

Setup almost looks similar to V-day 2007. I think hamilton got nearly 2 1/2 feet of snow just from lake effect.

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12z NAM looks good for about 0.3" QPF, so yeah, that sounds fine. Maybe a bit more if the trend's not quite finished.

Hamilton might get destroyed in a setup like this. 24 hours of NE flow.

If I'm not mistaken, Toronto would need a ESE or ENE wind off Lake Ontario to get LES influence, right? I always get the parameters mixed up.

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12z Nam has 5-7" for the GTA which isn't bad at all. Potential is there for some LES influence.

 

Based on instantwxmaps looks more like 3-6" to me, but given the qpf that must be indicative of some decent ratios. H7/850 centres pass right over/just to the south of us which places us in an area where often good snow growth occurs.

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Based on instantwxmaps looks more like 3-6" to me, but given the qpf that must be indicative of some decent ratios. H7/850 centres pass right over/just to the south of us which places us in an area where often good snow growth occurs.

Its a sharp cut-off. The strong PV and mini 50-50 Low off the coast of Newfoundland will prevent this storm from going to far north, but theirs still some room for another shift northwards (maybe 50-100 miles).

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What are the significant differences between this event and the Christmas Eve event? As I recall it trended north at roughly 48 hours only to trend dramatically southeast again within 24 hours? Any similarities or differences that would prevent that again? Understood every storm is unique.

 

Moisture mostly.  This storm has an ample supply of it with a decent cold air pool to support more snow.

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