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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Early thinking from DVN is 4-6" with up to 8" possible.  12-15:1 LSRs.  

 

Too early for me to make a call with how guidance has been this season, but feeling pretty good at getting 4" or more.  May start with a brief mix, especially with any more shifts north.  

 

DVN..

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

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This will be a good hit for northern Indiana. why? Because I'll be up in northern Lower Michigan this weekend. Deep thoughts.

I know exactly how you feel as last summer every time I took a vacations up north and there were bid ole red blob T-Storms IMBY... :axe:

 

Regarding this storm:  Love the trends but still would like to see a 100 mile north trend for myself.  0Z tonight should be most interesting as the BC vort should be a bit more sampled.  One thing I have noticed that has also allowed a bit of north trend is the fact that one of the Vorts coming across the Arctic circle has become less powerful/more east each run over the past 24 hours.

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Keeping Toronto in my prayers during this weekend's runs. If anything, systems like this tend to trend North as the date nears. Often this screws us and gives us a miss with rain but maybe it will work in our favour. After last winter where every big dog storm scraped by us, it would be painful to see it happen again in the year at without storms... Although we did really luck out with the atypical December 11-12 system.

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Just for the heck of it I pulled the SREF plumes for MSP to see what the northward trends have done. Was surprised to see the 09z with a mean approaching 6". A few big dogs around 12". Still not expecting a whole lot here, but the trend is real. Some of you are sitting real nice this morning. Hope it continues.

 

Definitely jacked, but probably to be expected of them. Mean of 10" for MKE even.

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Looking good, perhaps, for a real snow here in NE IL.  I love everyone's analysis, I really do, I learn quite a bit by just coming here to read. TV this morning, talking 3"-6" but suggesting totals could be higher.  

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