Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol. It figures. I'm thinking that somewhere in IWX's CWA is primed for double digits. Agree. You guys are sitting in the sweet spot. Southern IA-northern IL-northern IN look pretty prime. Down here, it's getting pretty sketchy. Lousy a** models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Outstanding AFD from DTX last night. Suffice it to say things are looking much better for Southeast Michigan (safe to skip the 2nd paragraph about Saturday): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More eye candy....take it for what it is. I think this is as far as Earls goes for this model. At least for the 0Z run. That would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Early thinking from DVN is 4-6" with up to 8" possible. 12-15:1 LSRs. Too early for me to make a call with how guidance has been this season, but feeling pretty good at getting 4" or more. May start with a brief mix, especially with any more shifts north. DVN.. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGESTPERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLSBASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCESUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPERENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERREDTO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BEBETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAYSHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDEOF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDEOF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDSINCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENTOF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This will be a good hit for northern Indiana. why? Because I'll be up in northern Lower Michigan this weekend. Deep thoughts. I know exactly how you feel as last summer every time I took a vacations up north and there were bid ole red blob T-Storms IMBY... Regarding this storm: Love the trends but still would like to see a 100 mile north trend for myself. 0Z tonight should be most interesting as the BC vort should be a bit more sampled. One thing I have noticed that has also allowed a bit of north trend is the fact that one of the Vorts coming across the Arctic circle has become less powerful/more east each run over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Keeping Toronto in my prayers during this weekend's runs. If anything, systems like this tend to trend North as the date nears. Often this screws us and gives us a miss with rain but maybe it will work in our favour. After last winter where every big dog storm scraped by us, it would be painful to see it happen again in the year at without storms... Although we did really luck out with the atypical December 11-12 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Radio launching out the 6-10" amounts for chicago metro on my way into work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just for the heck of it I pulled the SREF plumes for MSP to see what the northward trends have done. Was surprised to see the 09z with a mean approaching 6". A few big dogs around 12". Still not expecting a whole lot here, but the trend is real. Some of you are sitting real nice this morning. Hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM digging the wave even more through 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Still hoping NW Ohio is in this but not getting to worried about it because we have a lot of time to go for shifts in this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 09z SREFs are amped down here. Mean of 0.96" becomes 10.8" snow. The driest member of the bunch is still 0.43" liquid. North trend ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just for the heck of it I pulled the SREF plumes for MSP to see what the northward trends have done. Was surprised to see the 09z with a mean approaching 6". A few big dogs around 12". Still not expecting a whole lot here, but the trend is real. Some of you are sitting real nice this morning. Hope it continues. Definitely jacked, but probably to be expected of them. Mean of 10" for MKE even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Early fodder from TV 18 in Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not sure if it's been posted yet but the 6z RGEM looked pretty amped with the s/w through hr 54 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I like that map! Keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREF Plumes took a noticeable downward trend for Kokomo. I hope for no more north trend. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What are your thoughts on the LES potential with this one. Flow looks due east to me for a time on Sunday. The flow is never due east. The winds do not parallel the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Excluding the biggest high outliers from the 9z SREF plumes, the mean at ORD is still 10". Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Already by 30 you can tell the 12z NAM's coming north by at least a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The flow is never due east. The winds do not parallel the isobars. Ya I made a mistake. Anyway still looks like some lake effect with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 9z for JOT... 9z for ORD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 9z for JOT... 09Z SREF 1 30 2015.gif 9z for ORD... 09Z SREF 1 30 2015 -- ORD.gif Looks real similar for DKB. Huge trend up from yesterday afternoon where I had a lot of sub 3 inch clunkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah by 33hr a bit stronger sfc low in CO and a larger 850 height contour extending into the central plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREF Plumes took a noticeable downward trend for Kokomo. I hope for no more north trend. Ugh. Doesn't look good. Pretty sh*tty trend for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ya I made a mistake. Anyway still looks like some lake effect with this one. Maybe that's why the 9z SREF mean for YYZ is 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looking good, perhaps, for a real snow here in NE IL. I love everyone's analysis, I really do, I learn quite a bit by just coming here to read. TV this morning, talking 3"-6" but suggesting totals could be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Maybe that's why the 9z SREF mean for YYZ is 7". RGEM looked pretty amped at 6z and NAM may come in more amped. Liking the trend for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RGEM looked pretty amped at 6z and NAM may come in more amped. Liking the trend for sure. Definitely a trend at this point. And the s/w as far as I can tell is still only partially sampled as of today's 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Doesn't look good. Pretty sh*tty trend for us. Snow drought looking like it's going to continue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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