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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Nice bump north with the euro ensembles as well. .75+ line up to Chicago and the .50+ line is close to what the euro itself had..

 

Yeah was just going to say the mean sfc low track is from about STL on east to north of Louisville/Cincy with a few going ENE from STL. 

 

The Euro control run is really juiced just south of here, more so than the op run. 

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I am going to have to go into weenie mode here. Oh my gosh, the NAM and GFS have 0.5" to 1.0" QPF in northwest Ohio. Both of them have a maximum around Van Wert and Fort Wayne. (The GFS tops off at 0.8" of QPF around Van Wert OH and Kankakee IL, but the NAM tops out at 1.0" QPF at Van Wert). They both have pretty strong vorticity maxes with the northern stream. Temperatures drop to 12F around Fort Wayne, snow ratios could go as high as 15:1 as temperatures get below 20F. Wind gusts could be up around 25mph and 10m winds may be just just 18mph. Although 18mph is pretty standard wind speed, the open areas could see quite a bit of drifting if the snow falls quickly.

Ha they always do. I don't think people fully realize it's like the Plains East in NW Ohio. There are really no hills at all

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A much, much better look on the 0z euro ensemble around here. A few big hits, especially for Niagara and the northern Erie shores. One more North bump and were in business.

What are your thoughts on the LES potential with this one. Flow looks due east to me for a time on Sunday.

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So with the better defined 850 circulation, winds start out more ENE off the lake and slowly back during the day. Also inversion heights climb from 4000ft to 7000ft Sunday night. Low level convergence increases a bit as the winds back so I'm liking the single band idea Sunday night for SE WI and NE IL. Might have have decent snow rates before it dissipates Monday morning.

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What are your thoughts on the LES potential with this one. Flow looks due east to me for a time on Sunday.

Right now the models are definitely favouring Oakville-Hamilton-St Catharines but another shift north and we have a longer period with more veered ENE winds. Not sure well go due east but if the North trend continues theres certainly potential in and around YYZ with the way ∆T's/inversion heights are looking.

 

EDIT: T/td spreads also very small so the low/mid levels are plenty saturated.

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