Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow. Looks great at 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice digging by the northern wave and early phasing. It ends up moving more W-E, probably because the PV doesn't allow it to go negatively tilted, but it was a great run for a lot of people. I'm sure the snowmap has a wide 6"+ corridor from IA/northern MO points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Locked and loaded ecmwf_tprecip_mw_15.png ecmwf_tsnow_mw_15.png WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Locked and loaded ecmwf_tprecip_mw_15.png ecmwf_tsnow_mw_15.png Liking our position in this one, and particularly my position on the lakeshore for some good LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EuroWX snow map has a band of 12+ across the northern 2/5 or so of IN/OH and extending back into parts of N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Excellent 850 mb low track for the QCA and the LOT CWA on the Euro, northern MO to near CMI to near IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EuroWX snow map has a band of 12+ across the northern 2/5 or so of IN/OH and extending back into parts of N IL.I believe that map factors in ratios and doesn't count mixed precip as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I believe that map factors in ratios and doesn't count mixed precip as snow. Pretty sure you're right about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 EuroWX snow map has a band of 12+ across the northern 2/5 or so of IN/OH and extending back into parts of N IL. Yeah probably a 10-14" max swath I'd say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ILX AFD should be a fun one to read here in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice bump north with the euro ensembles as well. .75+ line up to Chicago and the .50+ line is close to what the euro itself had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice bump north with the euro ensembles as well. .75+ line up to Chicago and the .50+ line is close to what the euro itself had.. Yeah was just going to say the mean sfc low track is from about STL on east to north of Louisville/Cincy with a few going ENE from STL. The Euro control run is really juiced just south of here, more so than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nrn wave across BC at 18hr on the 6z NAM looks a bit south of the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah my guess is we get another bump north with this run. Wave in BC is a bit stronger and more WSW of the 0z NAM position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wave digs a little further south, better p-falls on lee side of Rockies means stronger WAA across plains (see 925mb wind speeds) and precip is wetter/further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 solid 8-12" N half of IL on 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am going to have to go into weenie mode here. Oh my gosh, the NAM and GFS have 0.5" to 1.0" QPF in northwest Ohio. Both of them have a maximum around Van Wert and Fort Wayne. (The GFS tops off at 0.8" of QPF around Van Wert OH and Kankakee IL, but the NAM tops out at 1.0" QPF at Van Wert). They both have pretty strong vorticity maxes with the northern stream. Temperatures drop to 12F around Fort Wayne, snow ratios could go as high as 15:1 as temperatures get below 20F. Wind gusts could be up around 25mph and 10m winds may be just just 18mph. Although 18mph is pretty standard wind speed, the open areas could see quite a bit of drifting if the snow falls quickly. Ha they always do. I don't think people fully realize it's like the Plains East in NW Ohio. There are really no hills at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nice jump north with the heavier prcp.....but we are still a couple of days out so anything can happen..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow, 6z NAM actually gets the 0.1" line up here. Happy day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 6z GEFS 72hr QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This will be a good hit for northern Indiana. why? Because I'll be up in northern Lower Michigan this weekend. Deep thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOT taking it slow and steady this morning. SWS mentions 3-6" possibly higher. Good initial call to get the news out, but based on trends looks like Chicago is gonna score something a lot higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A much, much better look on the 0z euro ensemble around here. A few big hits, especially for Niagara and the northern Erie shores. One more North bump and were in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This will be a good hit for northern Indiana. why? Because I'll be up in northern Lower Michigan this weekend. Deep thoughts. Lol. It figures. I'm thinking that somewhere in IWX's CWA is primed for double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Hopefully the evolution of the 850mb low like the 00z Euro depicted continues...Ensembles from both the GFS and Euro looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Starting to run out of breathing room here in Columbus. A couple more nudges north and we're in the mix/slop. It just wouldn't be any other way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A much, much better look on the 0z euro ensemble around here. A few big hits, especially for Niagara and the northern Erie shores. One more North bump and were in business. What are your thoughts on the LES potential with this one. Flow looks due east to me for a time on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So with the better defined 850 circulation, winds start out more ENE off the lake and slowly back during the day. Also inversion heights climb from 4000ft to 7000ft Sunday night. Low level convergence increases a bit as the winds back so I'm liking the single band idea Sunday night for SE WI and NE IL. Might have have decent snow rates before it dissipates Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What are your thoughts on the LES potential with this one. Flow looks due east to me for a time on Sunday. Right now the models are definitely favouring Oakville-Hamilton-St Catharines but another shift north and we have a longer period with more veered ENE winds. Not sure well go due east but if the North trend continues theres certainly potential in and around YYZ with the way ∆T's/inversion heights are looking. EDIT: T/td spreads also very small so the low/mid levels are plenty saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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