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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Wow. Very impressive. But some ensemble members from both the GFS and Euro have been showing these amounts

Pretty much an ideal track for eastern IA, northern IL and northwest IN on that run. And with the stout high dropping southeast as the low deepens, wind is definitely gonna be an issue.
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To be honest I wouldn't rule the ukie out. With the moisture coming out from the SW and a good baro zone setting up, if the phase happens just a couple of hours earlier that is quite possible.  But it does bring precip type issue over it's heaviest QPF areas. Rest assured not for ORD. What do I think the chances are? About 1 in 5.

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Not sure if IND will pull the trigger on watches with the overnight package but I'd have to think it would be coming tomorrow afternoon at the latest if models hold up. 

 

I'll start feeling better after the 12z runs but at this point am thinking there's a shot at double digits here.  If model qpf of .75-1" verifies, then even relatively subdued event average ratios of 12:1 would put us near or over 10"

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