Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep GFS should follow the NAM at least to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS north. Starts at the NE/SD border stringing east southeast. Most of LOT sees 6-9 through 00z on 2/2. This is where I think there will be decent agreement going forward. North was the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 00Z GFS Snow Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A couple more north shifts and we might be in some trouble here. The north shift means that our temps hang around freezing for a longer period of time on the models. Probably just being paranoid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 A couple more north shifts and we might be in some trouble here. The north shift means that our temps hang around freezing for a longer period of time on the models. Probably just being paranoid though. I feel the same way. Seems like every storm shifts the mix line north of I-70. Really would blow to get a mixed bag with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep looks like another shift north with the GFS, like alek mentioned as these shortwaves get closer to the 72hr range they are coming in further south. Wouldn't be shocked to see a bump up in QPF going forward too as any south shift in the northern stream piece will allow for possible better phasing and pulling northward the deeper moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With the way the models have been now for some time I am really not sold on any solution at this point but the trends today have been encouraging for the I80 corridor. The other trend we have to hope doesn't come into play is cutting of QPF as we get on the doorstep of the event... that has reared its head a lot this Winter. However, most of those systems have been NW flow systems and this one does have a direct tie to Pacific and Gulf moisture. I do like the fact we don't have a synoptically weak or weakening storm at the surface and aloft too, which we've had a lot of this Winter also. Dynamics certainly argue that this could be a fairly significant system and it definitely bears watching. Full sampling I don't believe has taken place yet so continued shifting will certainly be possible but a general consensus is starting to build so now we look for trends and see if the shifting begins to slow/stop. Ratios further to the North should be excellent especially Sunday morning and that will only help the accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I still think we see another bump north or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Signs of enhancement beginning already at H57 / 9Z 01FEB ... and then this is still there as the synoptic shuffles off to the east... namconus_ref_ncus_28 P.png LE plume - that looks like fun! Forecast chances of snow up to 60%. Hopefully the models start to steady out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I still think we see another bump north or two. Agree. I think we are sitting in a good spot. Plus there is so much moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ouch, was hoping it would not bump that far north already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS with a solid plume at H84 in to ALEK ville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Qpf values wil go up by the 12z run - especially if the euro gets juiced tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gino is working overnight so we should get a good AFD to read in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Gino is working overnight so we should get a good AFD to read in the morning ^ always a treat, and I'm not even in the same CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM should make a recovery from the 12z run. More favorable look in the northern stream at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Loving this new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM should make a recovery from the 12z run. More favorable look in the northern stream at 48 hours. 60 hours; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Was thinking from the start that the LE would be a major player in these parts and still believe so. Happy models are finally coming on board with the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow even a good hit for CHITown and Brewers who have recently moved to the north star state. If the GFS is right it will be brewers best hit of the year so far in the southern metro. Here in the north metro we got about 5 early in November with areas just 5-12 miles north of me getting much more. South metro was more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 72 hours ggem; By the looks of it, my area is basically out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GGEM should make a recovery from the 12z run. More favorable look in the northern stream at 48 hours. Well, at least an improvement over 12z. Still has some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wonder if the Euro will trend north 0z or hold the same? Its 12z run was about as far north as the 0z models that have come in so far (except for the Canadian which came north some but is still south of everything else) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am going to have to go into weenie mode here. Oh my gosh, the NAM and GFS have 0.5" to 1.0" QPF in northwest Ohio. Both of them have a maximum around Van Wert and Fort Wayne. (The GFS tops off at 0.8" of QPF around Van Wert OH and Kankakee IL, but the NAM tops out at 1.0" QPF at Van Wert). They both have pretty strong vorticity maxes with the northern stream. Temperatures drop to 12F around Fort Wayne, snow ratios could go as high as 15:1 as temperatures get below 20F. Wind gusts could be up around 25mph and 10m winds may be just just 18mph. Although 18mph is pretty standard wind speed, the open areas could see quite a bit of drifting if the snow falls quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol @ ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wonder if the Euro will trend north 0z or hold the same? Its 12z run was about as far north as the 0z models that have come in so far (except for the Canadian which came north some but is still south of everything else) I'd guess it comes north some. The 0z GFS tonight is a good amount north of the 12z Euro with the placement of the snow swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol @ ukmet P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif The totals map isn't out yet but adding up the frames, looks like a large area of 20+ mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Another thing that hasn't been mentioned for northern IL on the northern side, the sfc winds look like they should pick up Saturday afternoon and could see some gusts between 25 and 30mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd guess it comes north some. The 0z GFS tonight is a good amount north of the 12z Euro with the placement of the snow swath. Yes, not to mention the Ukie in this range tends to be a clue as to what the Euro might do later in the night, and it jumped north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Another thing that hasn't been mentioned for northern IL on the northern side, the sfc winds look like they should pick up Saturday afternoon and could see some gusts between 25 and 30mph. Yeah there is going to be a solid pressure gradient with the high pressing in from the northwest, even with the low probably not getting much lower than 1005 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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