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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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A couple more north shifts and we might be in some trouble here.  The north shift means that our temps hang around freezing for a longer period of time on the models.  Probably just being paranoid though.  :P

I feel the same way. Seems like every storm shifts the mix line north of I-70. Really would blow to get a mixed bag with this one... :axe:

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Yep looks like another shift north with the GFS, like alek mentioned as these shortwaves get closer to the 72hr range they are coming in further south. Wouldn't be shocked to see a bump up in QPF going forward too as any south shift in the northern stream piece will allow for possible better phasing and pulling northward the deeper moisture.

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With the way the models have been now for some time I am really not sold on any solution at this point but the trends today have been encouraging for the I80 corridor.  The other trend we have to hope doesn't come into play is cutting of QPF as we get on the doorstep of the event... that has reared its head a lot this Winter.  However, most of those systems have been NW flow systems and this one does have a direct tie to Pacific and Gulf moisture. 

 

I do like the fact we don't have a synoptically weak or weakening storm at the surface and aloft too, which we've had a lot of this Winter also. 

 

Dynamics certainly argue that this could be a fairly significant system and it definitely bears watching.  Full sampling I don't believe has taken place yet so continued shifting will certainly be possible but a general consensus is starting to build so now we look for trends and see if the shifting begins to slow/stop. 

 

Ratios further to the North should be excellent especially Sunday morning and that will only help the accumulations. 

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Wow even a good hit for CHITown and Brewers who have recently moved to the north star state.  If the GFS is right it will be brewers best hit of the year so far in the southern metro.  Here in the north metro we got about 5 early in November with areas just 5-12 miles north of me getting much more.  South metro was more rain.

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I am going to have to go into weenie mode here. Oh my gosh, the NAM and GFS have 0.5" to 1.0" QPF in northwest Ohio. Both of them have a maximum around Van Wert and Fort Wayne. (The GFS tops off at 0.8" of QPF around Van Wert OH and Kankakee IL, but the NAM tops out at 1.0" QPF at Van Wert). They both have pretty strong vorticity maxes with the northern stream. Temperatures drop to 12F around Fort Wayne, snow ratios could go as high as 15:1 as temperatures get below 20F. Wind gusts could be up around 25mph and 10m winds may be just just 18mph. Although 18mph is pretty standard wind speed, the open areas could see quite a bit of drifting if the snow falls quickly.

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I wonder if the Euro will trend north 0z or hold the same? Its 12z run was about as far north as the 0z models that have come in so far (except for the Canadian which came north some but is still south of everything else)

 

I'd guess it comes north some. The 0z GFS tonight is a good amount north of the 12z Euro with the placement of the snow swath.

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I'd guess it comes north some. The 0z GFS tonight is a good amount north of the 12z Euro with the placement of the snow swath.

Yes, not to mention the Ukie in this range tends to be a clue as to what the Euro might do later in the night, and it jumped north as well.

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Another thing that hasn't been mentioned for northern IL on the northern side, the sfc winds look like they should pick up Saturday afternoon and could see some gusts between 25 and 30mph.

Yeah there is going to be a solid pressure gradient with the high pressing in from the northwest, even with the low probably not getting much lower than 1005 mb.

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