Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 989
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Really don't like how these new style maps are made. Always seem to look off. Like why the void along 80 east of DVN?

Each office inputs their own forecast. In this case DVN has yet to do so.

I like it, as it gives you a better representation of what area offices are going with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You should dig into the models more.  That 29 on Sunday (or whatever it ends up being) is very likely going to be a midnight high with temps falling.

 

I will take a look at that, and see if I can determine if that is the case.... stay tuned... I may even be able to figure out what I am looking at. ;)  

 

Edit... Okay. took a look.  Yeah, Hoosier, it's a high temp for somewhere in the wee hours, like 0100-0200.  By 3pm the temps are low 20's. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I cant recall a system this far out with a concrete solution this season. There is always a shift of location with the heaviest bands right down to the wire. (Even any bands) Heck the one today was iffy at best !

 

Stay tuned and be try not to get too IMBY attached to any solution

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The northern stream wave may have just enough to produce an inch or two of fluff over MN. I'm grasping for straws over here.

It's good to have you up here. We can both wave together as the northern wave passes by to our SW and the other passes to our SE. Even the northern piece is now out of our range. Flurries and arctic air are our prize.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From IND AFD...

 

IF THESE LATEST
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. SO...THIS BEARS
WATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACK
WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF A MORE NORTHERLY
SOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN
ZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
WX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's good to have you up here. We can both wave together as the northern wave passes by to our SW and the other passes to our SE. Even the northern piece is now out of our range. Flurries and arctic air are our prize.

 

I'm probably going to be a bit optimistic until this thing is fully sampled. Not going to take much qpf with the progged air mass incoming.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe I'm being a bit bullish but I like the potential especially after today's guidance.

 

Yeah...numerous signals for prolly one of the better systems for a decent chunk of the subforum.  Obviously there will always be winners and losers and lollipops...but I feel pretty darn good about this one.

 

Admittedly I was waiting for the cold sector QPF shield to start shrinking by now....not because "this winter sux" or "this storm sux" ... but I just felt convection would start to rob the cold blob.  That has not been the case at all thus far and since that was my foremost concern the last few days....well, I'm feeling good

 

Closer to home...some of my friends/posters on the northern fringes of Chi-metro can prolly get some bonus LE action which has been consistently shown for awhile now and hasn't gone away.  This particular setup tends to add 1 to 2 inches of LE in my location in a transient burst as the synoptic snows wind down.  Not sure about any enhancement during the synoptic event itself...but there could be a window of opportunity on that front as well...

 

baro zone looks good, jets look good, moisture looks good, temps look good, track looks good, LE looks good....really not too much to complain about at this juncture after looking over all the guidance

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Other than the 12z GGEM, pretty good model agreement on 24 hours or more of snow here.  Looking at NAM simulated reflectivity, no real breaks either.  If it snows light to moderately that long without stopping, you can about sleepwalk your way to half a foot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21z SREF mean just under 8" for LAF with several plumes of 12+. And it's pretty tame with ratios.

Looking at areas farther north, there are some clowns in there, like 1 plume over 20" for ORD.

Decent for OKK at 8.1. Good spread of 5-12 inches with a lollipop near 15. It's a good storm but won't save a failing winter grade.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...