Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There will be a ****load of moisture. Moisture isn't going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 LOT already out with a snowfall map. Nice AFD too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Really don't like how these new style maps are made. Always seem to look off. Like why the void along 80 east of DVN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You should dig into the models more. That 29 on Sunday (or whatever it ends up being) is very likely going to be a midnight high with temps falling.In addition to that, surface temps are only part of the equation. UA temps are easily cold enough for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Really don't like how these new style maps are made. Always seem to look off. Like why the void along 80 east of DVN?Each office inputs their own forecast. In this case DVN has yet to do so.I like it, as it gives you a better representation of what area offices are going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Really don't like how these new style maps are made. Always seem to look off. Like why the void along 80 east of DVN? I know. That'd be quite the screw zone just west of LaSalle County, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The northern stream wave may have just enough to produce an inch or two of fluff over MN. I'm grasping for straws over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Each office inputs their own forecast. In this case DVN has yet to do so. I like it, as it gives you a better representation of what area offices are going with. maybe because I've yet to see a fully made one? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You should dig into the models more. That 29 on Sunday (or whatever it ends up being) is very likely going to be a midnight high with temps falling. I will take a look at that, and see if I can determine if that is the case.... stay tuned... I may even be able to figure out what I am looking at. Edit... Okay. took a look. Yeah, Hoosier, it's a high temp for somewhere in the wee hours, like 0100-0200. By 3pm the temps are low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Really don't like how these new style maps are made. Always seem to look off. Like why the void along 80 east of DVN? You mean you don't like the crazy gradient near Galesburg or Sterling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You mean you don't like the crazy gradient near Galesburg or Sterling? Looks like the "you're gonna get something but let them figure it out" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Majority of the 18z GFS ensembles are north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I cant recall a system this far out with a concrete solution this season. There is always a shift of location with the heaviest bands right down to the wire. (Even any bands) Heck the one today was iffy at best ! Stay tuned and be try not to get too IMBY attached to any solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Majority of the 18z GFS ensembles are north. Solid sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Majority of the 18z GFS ensembles are north. Solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 New HopWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You mean you don't like the crazy gradient near Galesburg or Sterling? I'm more impressed with the 90* corners the gradient makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 delicious feeds and exit regions....not the cream of the crop....but certainly solid enough to get the job done... via the 18Z GEFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 another fun image.... via the 18Z 12k NAM... dat plume.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The northern stream wave may have just enough to produce an inch or two of fluff over MN. I'm grasping for straws over here. It's good to have you up here. We can both wave together as the northern wave passes by to our SW and the other passes to our SE. Even the northern piece is now out of our range. Flurries and arctic air are our prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ILX now talking a swath of 5-6 inches across central IL. Certainly no GHD situation but this season a lot of us will take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 another fun image.... via the 18Z 12k NAM... dat plume.... namconus_ref_ncus_28.png Maybe I'm being a bit bullish but I like the potential especially after today's guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 From IND AFD... IF THESE LATESTSOLUTIONS PAN OUT THERE COULD BE A BAND OF WARNING LEVEL SNOWSOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES. SO...THIS BEARSWATCHING. MAKE SURE TO CHECK FOR UPDATES AS THE FCST/AMOUNTS/TRACKWILL NO DOUBT CHANGE. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS ABIT (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS IN THE GRIDS). IF A MORE NORTHERLYSOLUTION VERIFIES A WINTRY MIX WOULD LIKELY SNEAK INTO SOUTHERNZONES LIMITING SNOW ACCUMS/RATIOS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINORTWEAKS/CHANGES TO THE FCST NEXT WEEK AS A COLDER/POTENTIALLY ACTIVEWX REGIME LIKELY PERSISTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's good to have you up here. We can both wave together as the northern wave passes by to our SW and the other passes to our SE. Even the northern piece is now out of our range. Flurries and arctic air are our prize. I'm probably going to be a bit optimistic until this thing is fully sampled. Not going to take much qpf with the progged air mass incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Maybe I'm being a bit bullish but I like the potential especially after today's guidance. Yeah...numerous signals for prolly one of the better systems for a decent chunk of the subforum. Obviously there will always be winners and losers and lollipops...but I feel pretty darn good about this one. Admittedly I was waiting for the cold sector QPF shield to start shrinking by now....not because "this winter sux" or "this storm sux" ... but I just felt convection would start to rob the cold blob. That has not been the case at all thus far and since that was my foremost concern the last few days....well, I'm feeling good Closer to home...some of my friends/posters on the northern fringes of Chi-metro can prolly get some bonus LE action which has been consistently shown for awhile now and hasn't gone away. This particular setup tends to add 1 to 2 inches of LE in my location in a transient burst as the synoptic snows wind down. Not sure about any enhancement during the synoptic event itself...but there could be a window of opportunity on that front as well... baro zone looks good, jets look good, moisture looks good, temps look good, track looks good, LE looks good....really not too much to complain about at this juncture after looking over all the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Other than the 12z GGEM, pretty good model agreement on 24 hours or more of snow here. Looking at NAM simulated reflectivity, no real breaks either. If it snows light to moderately that long without stopping, you can about sleepwalk your way to half a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 21z SREF mean just under 8" for LAF with several plumes of 12+. And it's pretty tame with ratios. Looking at areas farther north, there are some clowns in there, like 1 plume over 20" for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 21z SREF mean just under 8" for LAF with several plumes of 12+. And it's pretty tame with ratios. Looking at areas farther north, there are some clowns in there, like 1 plume over 20" for ORD. Decent for OKK at 8.1. Good spread of 5-12 inches with a lollipop near 15. It's a good storm but won't save a failing winter grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Each office inputs their own forecast. In this case DVN has yet to do so. I like it, as it gives you a better representation of what area offices are going with. Yeah thought that was good. Like it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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