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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Your back yard (and my parents) bullseyed on that. My pops is itching to use his new snowblower...

 

I think I-72 corridor is golden. Southern end of guidance still leaves you in the game, plenty of space for north shifts.

Yea i'm cautiously optimistic at seeing something more than 3"... biggest snowfall was back in november right before thanksgiving (2.3") so hopefully we can top that down here

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Text from Alek, "Northern stream pieces have been digging south inside 72 hrs all winter. Likely going to be the case again"

 

Sounds optimistic. 

 

I like optimistic Alek, he is much better than ZZZZZ alek and what he says is true, it has happened with pretty much every clipper this winter.

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Moisture feed, some enhanced banding potential and the long duration all have me optimistic here.  Main drawback looks like borderline temps in the beginning but doesn't seem like a big deal. 

 

I would like to see a more impressive temperature gradient (which seems to be "meh" at this point) before getting excited about the frontogenesis potential...

 

...Unless of course we can somehow get back to what the 00z GFS and 00z GGEM showed on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (with more digging of the trough and thus a stronger warm sector LLJ and CCB)...

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I am not sure it will have that much pacific moisture with it. Models are really struggling. They are trying to force a phase so hard with it instead of just letting it be a northern wave.

It is raining in Southern California and Arizona where they are expecting several inches of rain especially in Arizona/New Mexico. Needless to say there will be Pacific moisture.

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Moisture feed, some enhanced banding potential and the long duration all have me optimistic here.  Main drawback looks like borderline temps in the beginning but doesn't seem like a big deal. 

 

I wish it wasn't a daytime event because that always seems to draw back the totals a bit.  But luckily we are still not too far along towards Spring for a very high sun angle.  Would really like to see us crank out some slightly above 10:1 ratios to fluff up the totals a bit which seems plausible at this point, especially towards the end.

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It is raining in Southern California and Arizona where they are expecting several inches of rain especially in Arizona/New Mexico. Needless to say there will be Pacific moisture.

 

I will say that stormy weather in the Desert SW (specifically California) tends to be one good signal for a significant storm somewhere in our region a few days later...

 

Not saying that will happen this time, but take it FWIW...

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Ahead of this "event", or whatever happens (note my optimism) we are progged for 27 on Friday, 34 Saturday, and 29 Sunday, obviously, those temps will go either way a degree or two by then, but at this point they are pretty much marginal.  So far, nothing seems to indicate that there might be p-type issues, but, with temps like they are, it would not surprise me.....

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I am not sure it will have that much pacific moisture with it. Models are really struggling. They are trying to force a phase so hard with it instead of just letting it be a northern wave.

 

 

This system will be carrying sub-tropical moisture coming from a 20-27C sst source that is blowtorching anomaly wise.

 

Moisture isn't an issue.

 

 

 

namUS_500_rhum_000.gif

 

 

 

namUS_500_rhum_051.gif

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I wish it wasn't a daytime event because that always seems to draw back the totals a bit.  But luckily we are still not too far along towards Spring for a very high sun angle.  Would really like to see us crank out some slightly above 10:1 ratios to fluff up the totals a bit which seems plausible at this point, especially towards the end.

 

 

I do start to notice some subtle effects of the higher sun angle around this time of year (especially when it's not snowing or snowing very lightly) but certainly nothing like later in the season.  Good thing around here is that temps will be falling throughout the day on Sunday to well below freezing.

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Ahead of this "event", or whatever happens (note my optimism) we are progged for 27 on Friday, 34 Saturday, and 29 Sunday, obviously, those temps will go either way a degree or two by then, but at this point they are pretty much marginal.  So far, nothing seems to indicate that there might be p-type issues, but, with temps like they are, it would not surprise me.....

 

 

You should dig into the models more.  That 29 on Sunday (or whatever it ends up being) is very likely going to be a midnight high with temps falling.

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