SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That's why I posted them, we all analyze our own back yards....this way everyone have it Yep. Perfect. Thank ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Somehow manage just about .30" liquid IMBY on this run. Another good run for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 WPC Your back yard (and my parents) bullseyed on that. My pops is itching to use his new snowblower... I think I-72 corridor is golden. Southern end of guidance still leaves you in the game, plenty of space for north shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 pretty strong concensus with the nam, euro, and gfs 84 hrs out. Usually would expect the nam to be out in lala land with a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 pretty strong concensus with the nam, euro, and gfs 84 hrs out. Usually would expect the nam to be out in lala land with a different solution. Probably the best "general" model agreement we have seen for some time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 pretty strong concensus with the nam, euro, and gfs 84 hrs out. Usually would expect the nam to be out in lala land with a different solution. Definitely looking pretty good here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Your back yard (and my parents) bullseyed on that. My pops is itching to use his new snowblower... I think I-72 corridor is golden. Southern end of guidance still leaves you in the game, plenty of space for north shifts. Yea i'm cautiously optimistic at seeing something more than 3"... biggest snowfall was back in november right before thanksgiving (2.3") so hopefully we can top that down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, looks pretty northern stream controlled right now. I bet the dryer runs eventually win out because of that. Not like this is a clipper. I prefer these gulf-connected overrunning situations....mainly because if anything they usually trend wetter,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Text from Alek, "Northern stream pieces have been digging south inside 72 hrs all winter. Likely going to be the case again" Sounds optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Text from Alek, "Northern stream pieces have been digging south inside 72 hrs all winter. Likely going to be the case again" Sounds optimistic. I like optimistic Alek, he is much better than ZZZZZ alek and what he says is true, it has happened with pretty much every clipper this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GFS will be south of its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z GFS will be south of its 12z run Looks the same, the prcp shield is further north tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks the same, the prcp shield is further north tho. less snow across IA/IL/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 less snow across IA/IL/IN Yeah, the northern fringes aren't as firm of a gradient though for those of us on the far north at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, the northern fringes aren't as firm of a gradient though for those of us on the far north at this point. nope, a 3-5" event here from the IL/WI border to 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Definitely looking pretty good here.. dontjinx.png Oh, hi Mottster. I had no idea who you were. I like the long duration of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Oh, hi Mottster. I had no idea who you were. I like the long duration of this one. Had flashbacks of Ed lizard for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Interesting that the GFS seems to show a system with less moisture. Depending on how far south this gets coming out of the rockies, that's something to watch. North and east still the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah, looks pretty northern stream controlled right now. I bet the dryer runs eventually win out because of that. Except for the serious amount of Pacific moisture involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Except for the serious amount of Pacific moisture involved Moisture feed, some enhanced banding potential and the long duration all have me optimistic here. Main drawback looks like borderline temps in the beginning but doesn't seem like a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Moisture feed, some enhanced banding potential and the long duration all have me optimistic here. Main drawback looks like borderline temps in the beginning but doesn't seem like a big deal. I would like to see a more impressive temperature gradient (which seems to be "meh" at this point) before getting excited about the frontogenesis potential... ...Unless of course we can somehow get back to what the 00z GFS and 00z GGEM showed on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning (with more digging of the trough and thus a stronger warm sector LLJ and CCB)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am not sure it will have that much pacific moisture with it. Models are really struggling. They are trying to force a phase so hard with it instead of just letting it be a northern wave. It is raining in Southern California and Arizona where they are expecting several inches of rain especially in Arizona/New Mexico. Needless to say there will be Pacific moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Moisture feed, some enhanced banding potential and the long duration all have me optimistic here. Main drawback looks like borderline temps in the beginning but doesn't seem like a big deal. I wish it wasn't a daytime event because that always seems to draw back the totals a bit. But luckily we are still not too far along towards Spring for a very high sun angle. Would really like to see us crank out some slightly above 10:1 ratios to fluff up the totals a bit which seems plausible at this point, especially towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It is raining in Southern California and Arizona where they are expecting several inches of rain especially in Arizona/New Mexico. Needless to say there will be Pacific moisture. I will say that stormy weather in the Desert SW (specifically California) tends to be one good signal for a significant storm somewhere in our region a few days later... Not saying that will happen this time, but take it FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ahead of this "event", or whatever happens (note my optimism) we are progged for 27 on Friday, 34 Saturday, and 29 Sunday, obviously, those temps will go either way a degree or two by then, but at this point they are pretty much marginal. So far, nothing seems to indicate that there might be p-type issues, but, with temps like they are, it would not surprise me..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I am not sure it will have that much pacific moisture with it. Models are really struggling. They are trying to force a phase so hard with it instead of just letting it be a northern wave. This system will be carrying sub-tropical moisture coming from a 20-27C sst source that is blowtorching anomaly wise. Moisture isn't an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I wish it wasn't a daytime event because that always seems to draw back the totals a bit. But luckily we are still not too far along towards Spring for a very high sun angle. Would really like to see us crank out some slightly above 10:1 ratios to fluff up the totals a bit which seems plausible at this point, especially towards the end. I do start to notice some subtle effects of the higher sun angle around this time of year (especially when it's not snowing or snowing very lightly) but certainly nothing like later in the season. Good thing around here is that temps will be falling throughout the day on Sunday to well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 First call for STL 3-5". Still possible for 5-10" and 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ahead of this "event", or whatever happens (note my optimism) we are progged for 27 on Friday, 34 Saturday, and 29 Sunday, obviously, those temps will go either way a degree or two by then, but at this point they are pretty much marginal. So far, nothing seems to indicate that there might be p-type issues, but, with temps like they are, it would not surprise me..... You should dig into the models more. That 29 on Sunday (or whatever it ends up being) is very likely going to be a midnight high with temps falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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