Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 With the model madness... if there's one thing we can probably rule out, it's the entire cutoff ejecting. That's been off the table for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 North is the trend.... First time that we've had somewhat decent model agreement in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 North is the trend.... First time that we've had somewhat decent model agreement in a while I agree.... but someone needs to get the memo to the ggem . I like where the i70 folks sit right now. we could survive a slight shift north if we had too, according to most of the models, but that would probably also imply a more juiced system as well. Still waiting for that crazy nam solution we all know it's going to show at some point....ie a 987 driving to cmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yea the GGEM was out to lunch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Should expect the swath to tilt a bit as well as we get close to the event to be at least a tad bit SW-NE which should also be considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For those that wait around for sampling... Southern wave is being partially sampled, and will be more and more over the next day or so. The northern wave will be partially sampled for 12z tomorrow and just about fully for 0z tomorrow evening. The second northern wave won't be sampled well until Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 for the further north crowd. JMA brings a 998 to Lexington KY, drives the rain snow about 75 miles north of cmh. Nice hit most of IL, IN, lower MI. don't hate me cmh'ers, just throw'n it all out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For those that wait around for sampling... Southern wave is being partially sampled, and will be more and more over the next day or so. The northern wave will be partially sampled for 12z tomorrow and just about fully for 0z tomorrow evening. The second northern wave won't be sampled well until Saturday. I am one of those knuckleheads.... thanks for the breakdown joe....haven't had time to dive fully into things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For those that wait around for sampling... Southern wave is being partially sampled, and will be more and more over the next day or so. The northern wave will be partially sampled for 12z tomorrow and just about fully for 0z tomorrow evening. The second northern wave won't be sampled well until Saturday. I think this is playing a big role in the model mayhem, so sampling of the primary northern wave should (hopefully) provide better consistency tomorrow and tomorrow night. The second northern wave not being sampled until Saturday is likely to still add some uncertainty to the outcome. Looking back to 2011, the southern wave off the Baja gave the models fits in the range we're roughly in with GHD until it was well sampled. Much of the guidance lost the storm south of the Chicago area for a few days and as late as 00z 1/29. Even the Euro shifted southeast with 12z 1/29 til the guidance came into better consensus 00z 1/30. I also remain optimistic that this system could come even farther north and bring the higher qpf into the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 for the further north crowd. JMA brings a 998 to Lexington KY, drives the rain snow about 75 miles north of cmh. Nice hit most of IL, IN, lower MI. don't hate me cmh'ers, just throw'n it all out there. Crush job...would probably rival the 2007 storm here. Nice to dream anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Signs aren't bad. Just need a little more jump North to be back in the game. With the way the models have been the past two years, I wouldn't put anyone out of the game. Of course, I wouldn't put anyone IN the game either, but signs point to at least somebody getting something out of it, which is about the most we can ask for these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro eps matches the op.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro eps matches the op.... yup. Mean snowfall is nice. Axis is right thru the center of IL, IN, OH. The control is a tad south of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good majority of the euro ensemble members are north of the op and several are really juiced/north with significant hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good majority of the euro ensemble members are north of the op and several are really juiced/north with significant hits. I just looked at the 51 member snowfall maps....like 90% bulls eye i70, I only found a couple that were significantly north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just looked at the 51 member snowfall maps....like 90% bulls eye i70, I only found a couple that were significantly north of the OP. maybe with your little Ohio max but a good majority either have a northern side shift north and/or wetter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just looked at the 51 member snowfall maps....like 90% bulls eye i70, I only found a couple that were significantly north of the OP. +1 I'm hearing the same thing as well matching up with what you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Basically noise level changes on the 18z NAM so far at 42 hours. My bet would be no big shifts on this run distance wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 well, I guess you guys can judge...set 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just looked at the 51 member snowfall maps....like 90% bulls eye i70, I only found a couple that were significantly north of the OP. Steal the max up at I-70 as usual (it's ok I got to enjoy it for 4 years LOL) but don't crush our dreams in Cincy! But in all seriousness, a slight northward adjustment seems reasonable from today's 12z operational GFS/Euro runs. EDIT: Thx for posting Buckeye. I'm still ok with quite a few of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 set 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Basically noise level changes on the 18z NAM so far at 42 hours. My bet would be no big shifts on this run distance wise. Yeah if anything the nrn wave is a little slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 set 2 Looks like N. IL has a good chunk of them north of the OP. Not by much, but enough that chicagoland would get into the purp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z NAM is going to be flatter/south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah if anything the nrn wave is a little slower Looks like it might allow the snow band to tilt a little differently...almost more WNW-ESE instead of due west to east. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z NAM is going to be flatter/south Yep. Northern wave doesn't dig as much, and is farther east... Less/later phasing. Second northern wave is much farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 18z NAM is going to be flatter/south Seems like it may actually turn out slightly better for N IL than the 12z run, due to the slight difference in orientation of the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems like it may actually turn out slightly better for N IL than the 12z run, due to the slight difference in orientation of the snow band. Was just going to say it's wetter here actually compared to the 12z run and not as tight of a northern gradient along I-80 in IA/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like N. IL has a good chunk of them north of the OP. Not by much, but enough that chicagoland would get into the purp. That's why I posted them, we all analyze our own back yards....this way everyone have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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