pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 gfs has been very consistent it's last 3 runs....minor shifts in qpf shield/amounts. Looking like a solid 3-6" widespread snowfall centered on i70, Low end warning criteria. Long duration light to mod at times. Still feel biggest risk is further south and weak....euro is a huge red flag. Really interested in seeing if the ggem tames or holds serve....and if the euro amps or holds serve. What, you're not buying the clown maps? LOL. I think the Euro comes in almost identical to its 0z run thus making the 3-6 waaaay more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What, you're not buying the clown maps? LOL. I think the Euro comes in almost identical to its 0z run thus making the 3-6 waaaay more realistic. everytime I think I know what a model is going to do, it fools me 180 degrees. My gut tells me it comes in a bit more juiced....which probably means it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Right now, forecasters are saying 1" to 3" for areas north of I-80. Judging by the snow maps posted, it looks like there is a sharp cutoff on the northern side of this thing, and that cut off is south of the Chicago area here. I am leaning toward this thing pretty much whiffing to the south at this point, and missing the Chicago area with the exception of the extreme south suburbs. Yeah, it's IMBY of me, but, I have no confidence at this point. One "Snow Cast" map shown by Tracy Butler this morning showed the 1-3 inch accumulation way south in Will County, with less than an inch for the Chicago area proper.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 this could finally be our first southern stream - involved storm... ....and it ends up producing like a clipper anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IND's Mike Ryan lays it out pretty well. Relative portion of the AFD from this morning. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM. AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON- ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO 1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY FORTHCOMING. Solid thoughts by Mike Ryan. As far as ratios, between marginal surface temps and a fairly shallow DGZ initially, I'm thinking they may start off fairly crappy. Certainly should get better with time though and could be very good by the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ggem caved with a weaker further south storm. It still has a nice slug of initial moisture for you guys further west. That peters out when it gets to us, and then the weaker surface low slides of the ma coast. CMH appears to get the screwjob....relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ggem caved with a weaker further south storm. It still has a nice slug of initial moisture for you guys further west. That peters out when it gets to us, and then the weaker surface low slides of the ma coast. CMH appears to get the screwjob....relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z Ukie way north. Good stuff from these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 anyone want to commentate the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think it safe to say it'll track some where between Hudson Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Model mayhem continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Don't show the Weather Channel the 12z Ukie, they'll start getting excited about another historic nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z Ukie ends cyclone's 6" drought...so that would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ggem.... the screw hole in nw ohio to central areas is a result of being too far east before the initial slug dries up, and too far north to catch the southern low. This is like PDII extra light. The initial slug came in from the west....lull...and then the southern storm came up. In that one, everything jumped north inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z Ukie ends cyclone's 6" drought...so that would be cool. PA_000-072_0000.gif I still can't figure out what it's doing? Is it basically all northern stream? Would love to see the panel between 72 and 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z Ukie ends cyclone's 6" drought...so that would be cool. PA_000-072_0000.gif Differences with how we get there but solid agreement on a decent hit for us...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Since it's been referenced, PD II snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I still can't figure out what it's doing? Is it basically all northern stream? Would love to see the panel between 72 and 96 All northern stream. I think. Differences with how we get there but solid agreement on a decent hit for us...lol 3-6" a good starting point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 All northern stream. I think. 3-6" a good starting point? I was thinking a tad higher but sure, why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 and just like that, the nogaps decides to find the storm and bring it up to southern OH....widespread hit for most of us. unbelievable model craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 weight on the12z euro run is huge. I'm clearing my schedule* *holding off til 1:30 to microwave my hot pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 weight on the12z euro run is huge. I'm clearing my schedule* *holding off til 1:30 to microwave my hot pocket Have a bad feeling on the euro. No science to back that up, just a gut. Gonna b a whif to the south I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 With the model madness... if there's one thing we can probably rule out, it's the entire cutoff ejecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 weight on the12z euro run is huge. I'm clearing my schedule* *holding off til 1:30 to microwave my hot pocket You're in construction as well right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 With the model madness... if there's one thing we can probably rule out, it's the entire cutoff ejecting. yep, any worries of a wound up storm and warm tongue are pretty much off the table. It's all about how far north and east and juiced the precip can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You're in construction as well right? no, but a frozen, snow covered ground gives me way too much time on my hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 weight on the12z euro run is huge. I'm clearing my schedule* *holding off til 1:30 to microwave my hot pocket It's the same weight as any other model run...none of these mean much as the nrn wave is still out in la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's the same weight as any other model run...none of these mean much as the nrn wave is still out in la la land. I was kinda joking....ps I don't eat hot pockets either In all seriousness I bet it's very close to it's run last night. Once you get into the 72-84 hr frame, (which is when this starts to show it's true colors), it's rare to see big shifts from the euro. Oh well, all moot...we'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z GFS ensembles say the folks north of here shouldn't throw in the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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