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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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gfs has been very consistent it's last 3 runs....minor shifts in qpf shield/amounts.  

Looking like a solid 3-6" widespread snowfall centered on i70,  Low end warning criteria.   Long duration light to mod at times.   Still feel biggest risk is further south and weak....euro is a huge red flag.

 

Really interested in seeing if the ggem tames or holds serve....and if the euro amps or holds serve.

What, you're not buying the clown maps? LOL. I think the Euro comes in almost identical to its 0z run thus making the 3-6 waaaay more realistic.

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What, you're not buying the clown maps? LOL. I think the Euro comes in almost identical to its 0z run thus making the 3-6 waaaay more realistic.

 

everytime I think I know what a model is going to do, it fools me 180 degrees.   My gut tells me it comes in a bit more juiced....which probably means it won't.

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Right now, forecasters are saying 1" to 3" for areas north of I-80. Judging by the snow maps posted, it looks like there is a sharp cutoff on the northern side of this thing, and that cut off is south of the Chicago area here.  I am leaning toward this thing pretty much whiffing to the south at this point, and missing the Chicago area with the exception of the extreme south suburbs.  Yeah, it's IMBY of me, but, I have no confidence at this point.  One "Snow Cast" map shown by Tracy Butler this morning showed the 1-3 inch accumulation way south in Will County, with less than an inch for the Chicago area proper.. 

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IND's Mike Ryan lays it out pretty well. Relative portion of the AFD from this morning.

 

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN

VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.

AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00Z

GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM AND

OP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY

WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS

RUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS IS

LIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGER

RESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTER

THE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THE

EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL

JET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERN

MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OF

THE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL

CONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER

DAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELY

SAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUAL

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THAT

THINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON

THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOW

OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSS

THE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-

ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS

ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUS

AMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTING

UP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING

PRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLY

MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED

SNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO

1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. IT

REMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HAS

BEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLY

SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS

CENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELY

FORTHCOMING.

 

 

Solid thoughts by Mike Ryan.

 

As far as ratios, between marginal surface temps and a fairly shallow DGZ initially, I'm thinking they may start off fairly crappy.  Certainly should get better with time though and could be very good by the tail end.

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ggem caved with a weaker further south storm.   It still has a nice slug of initial moisture for you guys further west.  That peters out when it gets to us, and then the weaker surface low slides of the ma coast.   CMH appears to get the screwjob....relatively speaking

 

 

gem_mslp_wind_us_17.png

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ggem.... the screw hole in nw ohio to central areas is a result of being too far east before the initial slug dries up, and too far north to catch the southern low.

 

This is like PDII extra light.  The initial slug came in from the west....lull...and then the southern storm came up.   In that one, everything jumped north inside of 48 hours.

post-622-0-41348700-1422551051_thumb.jpg

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I still can't figure out what it's doing?  Is it basically all northern stream?   Would love to see the panel between 72 and 96

 

All northern stream. I think. :lol:

 

Differences with how we get there but solid agreement on a decent hit for us...lol

 

3-6" a good starting point?

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It's the same weight as any other model run...none of these mean much as the nrn wave is still out in la la land. 

 

I was kinda joking....ps I don't eat hot pockets either :lol:

 

In all seriousness I bet it's very close to it's run last night.  Once you get into the 72-84 hr frame, (which is when this starts to show it's true colors), it's rare to see big shifts from the euro. 

Oh well, all moot...we'll know soon enough.

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