Brewers Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Decent Western lake signal on the Euro and GFS. Inversion heights are mostly in the 3-5k range but do peak at 6k for a time. Winds are 10-30 degrees through the boundary layer much of Sunday. Probably enough to squeeze out at least an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z nam has jackpot from Chicago To Detroit,basically I80 and north. It goes only out to 84, but would assume a long duration event, with significant accumulations in the areas mentioned. Oh yeaaa!!! We have the NAM on our side. I can barely contain my excitement the Detroit Lions in the the Super Bowl!!! Joking aside at least the 6Z GFS took a baby step north of the 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS shifted north for the 6z run. Sharp northern cutoff still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS shifted north for the 6z run. Sharp northern cutoff still there Need the Euro to play ball. Lot of potential here that we haven't had. Nice thermal divide,artic air, moisture transport overrunning boundary, lake enhancement. Just need the phase to strike the match. Big IF. But like the potential for a widespread white carpet through a good chunk of the forum. Hopefully, a stage setter for the back half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If this winter has taught us anything, it's that this will be an unmitigated model disaster right up until halfway through the event. No question, the spread on the GFS Ensembles is laughable, anything from a big storm for Chicago/Milwaukee to absolutely no moisture for the region, and we're only about three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 IND's Mike Ryan lays it out pretty well. Relative portion of the AFD from this morning. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TEST FORECASTER PATIENCE AS RUN TO RUN VARIANCE SWINGS WILDLY WITH THE POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND WINTER STORM.AFTER 28/12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED AWAY FROM A MORE PHASED SYSTEM...00ZGUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT GREATER IMPACTS BACK INTO THE REGION. GGEM ANDOP GFS BOTH BRING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEYWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUSRUN BUT REMAINS MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS ISLIKELY DUE TO HOLDING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BACK LONGERRESULTING IN A MORE DELAYED PHASING OF THE UPPER JETS UNTIL AFTERTHE SYSTEM PASSES BY CENTRAL INDIANA.THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE PHASING OF THE POLAR JET DIVING DOWN THEEAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICALJET TRANSPORTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS OUT OF NORTHERNMEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH DEGREE AND LOCATION OFTHE PHASING JET ENERGY ALOFT AND UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIALCONSENSUS CAN BE REACHED...SUSPECT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFTTHE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE BACK AND FORTH FOR AT LEAST ANOTHERDAY OR TWO UNTIL SOME OF THE UPPER JET ENERGY IS MORE COMPLETELYSAMPLED. THE VARIANCE IN SURFACE WAVE TRACKS THAT THE INDIVIDUALGFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT FURTHER SUPPORTS THATTHINKING. IT IS FOR THESE REASONS THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ONTHE DETAILS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.WITH THAT BEING SAID...SOME TRENDS DEFINITELY STARTING TO SHOWOVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 36-48 HOURS. SETUP IS COLDER ACROSSTHE BOARD WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A NON-ISSUE IF THE SURFACE WAVE TRACK ENDS UP NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUSACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS SENDING COPIOUSAMOUNTS OF PACIFIC/GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SETTINGUP A BROAD AND POTENTIALLY EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNINGPRODUCING MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY EARLYMONDAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEDSNOWFALL RATIOS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 TO1 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR RAPIDLY SPILLS INTO THE REGION. ITREMAINS PREMATURE TO DELVE INTO ACCUMULATION SPECIFICS BUT AS HASBEEN STATED THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...THE SETUP RIGHT NOW CERTAINLYSUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ACROSSCENTRAL INDIANA. STAY TUNED AS MORE MODEL VARIANCE LIKELYFORTHCOMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Since we're in a lull right now...just for fun...but model time. 0z JMA is a nice hit for CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Since we're in a lull right now...just for fun...but model time. 0z JMA is a nice hit for CMH. Buckeye weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 sorry Powerball, no way I couldn't bump this. Assuming this storm occurs for some portion of the subforum, models did pretty damn well with the signal 10 days out. Broken clocks are right twice a day. But let's hold up on the bumps and back patting until the storm (still 4-5 days out) actually verifies with the massive potential those models showed 10 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Tough to tell at this point what the 12z NAM's going to do. It may be a touch flatter with the s/w over western Canada at 48, but it may just be that it's a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Definitely not digging as much as the 6z run by 60. Should be a less amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 00Z GFS Snow Map. Bank this run. This is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would of expected the wave on the 12z NAM to dig more than it shows at it was a stronger wave as the previous runs entering MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z NAM would work for LAF. Alas, it's the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z NAM would work for LAF. Alas, it's the NAM... USA_ASNOWI24_sfc_084.gif As you indicate it is the NAM....what is interesting is the Indy AFD you posted and the mention of 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Seems the models are still lost, but coming into somewhat of a better agreement on Atleast the evolution of what's going to happen. If you are on the north side of this (not a bias opinion here) I wouldn't throw the towel in yet. Plenty of NW shift possibility here. Luckily it's somewhat suppressed on the east side of the state (or this would probably track right over Detroit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not seeing any big changes on the 12z GFS through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not seeing any big changes on the 12z GFS through 42. Let's just forget about seeing anything synoptic from this. Maybe we see some LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Let's just forget about seeing anything synoptic from this. Maybe we see some LES? Maybe Hamilton and Stoney Creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Maybe Hamilton and Stoney Creek. Again? Boy just can't catch a break this year. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks good, but MI will be suppression again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 When it comes down to it, that arctic air is coming in too fast, thus pushing things further south than earlier modeled. Very little chance for northward trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 When it comes down to it, that arctic air is coming in too fast, thus pushing things further south than earlier modeled. Very little chance for northward trends. False. It comes down to how much the nrn wave can dig when then in turn leads to how quickly the cold air comes down. Flatter track would obviously mean quicker cold air and a wave that can dig more will pump heights out ahead of it and have the cold air come down slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Snow swath wise, this run will be north of the 0z run but south of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 When it comes down to it, that arctic air is coming in too fast, thus pushing things further south than earlier modeled. Very little chance for northward trends. Not to be a smart azz but wasn't this modeled well south of the Ohio River and nearly DOA on yesterday's 12Z suite ?Agreed a consensus of a moderate to heavy snow band along the I-70 corridor seems to be forming. And given this years trend of south you are most likely correct, but a true phaser could open the door for a slight nort trend. Either way, looks like a legit. snow for a good part of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z GFS ensemble members total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks good, but MI will be suppression again.. Check and mate. Sadly there looks to be no reason for me to continue to post in this thread. Storms that miss MBY really don't interest me all that much. Maybe something will change otherwise enjoy for those who actually get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Compared to the 0z, the 12z GFS, to my eye at least, appears to have the northern stream wave more compact, but digs it less. The result for us I-80 folks is that the precip shield gets farther north than that disgusting gradient we saw modelled last night, but at the same time, the idea of a full phase, or really even a significant partial phase with any of the SW cutoff energy, is starting to look a bit dubious. Let's see what the GGEM does in about an hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ratios and a nice DGZ do some good work up here on the northern side of this on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 gfs has been very consistent it's last 3 runs....minor shifts in qpf shield/amounts. Looking like a solid 3-6" widespread snowfall centered on i70, Low end warning criteria. Long duration light to mod at times. Still feel biggest risk is further south and weak....euro is a huge red flag. Really interested in seeing if the ggem tames or holds serve....and if the euro amps or holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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