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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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This thing is going to be carrying copious amounts of Pacific moisture with it from the cut off spinning over very very warm ssts that are way above normal.

 

 

Inspite of only modest lift and frontal forcing. Add in arctic fronts, a decent LLJ, some phasing, but a crapload of moisture in the entire column.

 

Huge qpf totals wil come from only modest lift.

 

There will be a GIGANTIC area of light snow with moderate bands where lift is more concentrate and frontal forced bands.

 

gfs_namer_054_500_rh_ht.gif

 

gfs_namer_072_500_rh_ht.gif

 

 

gfs_namer_054_700_rh_ht.gif

 

 

gfs_namer_072_700_rh_ht.gif

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that was a different type of storm. It was a true thread the needle app runner. I like what OHweather said...PDII as an analog. We did well with that.

I wasn't using March as an analog. I was using it in reference to the clown map. The huge amounts across ohio. Pd2 was definitely east to west. I still have radar loop of it somewhere. That was my favorite storm ever. Maybe because I wasn't expecting more than 6" and ended up with over 20.
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that was a different type of storm. It was a true thread the needle app runner. I like what OHweather said...PDII as an analog. We did well with that.

PDII was a lot slower moving and didn't have similar northern stream involvement. I believe it had a strong -NAO. So I don't think it's a good analog and didn't mean to mention it in that sense. But it looked like crap at 500mb so the point was we don't need a closed off 510dm bomb over Ohio to get over 6" of snow. A sharp shortwave with some Gulf moisture taking on a negative tilt as it moves through Ohio will do the trick.
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PDII was a lot slower moving and didn't have similar northern stream involvement. I believe it had a strong -NAO. So I don't think it's a good analog and didn't mean to mention it in that sense. But it looked like crap at 500mb so the point was we don't need a closed off 510dm bomb over Ohio to get over 6" of snow. A sharp shortwave with some Gulf moisture taking on a negative tilt as it moves through Ohio will do the trick.

 

Have these been updated as of 0z? If so, they look fantastic.

 

f138.gif

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The low west of the apps gives way to coastal development by 120. The coastal tracks from just off the jersey coast to nova scotia.  Too progressive too significantly deepen, but still gives NYC and Boston a good hit.

 

Very 2/14/07-esque with the bowling ball across the Midwest and redevelopment right on the coast.  About 3" of snow, sleet, and ice at home outside Philly, but 8"+ less than a county to the north.

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Yeah it's def better than the 12z run and wetter but probably will be a bit south with the snow swath compared to the 0z GFS. 

 

definitely will be.  Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL.   But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall.

It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem.    

 

Kinda blows.  I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution.  That's not good.

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definitely will be.  Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL.   But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall.

It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem.    

 

Kinda blows.  I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution.  That's not good.

Wouldn't shock me if it edges north again 12z. Just an unsubstantiated hunch

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definitely will be.  Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL.   But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall.

It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem.    

 

Kinda blows.  I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution.  That's not good.

The point to bring home here is that it did trend more amplified just not quite there.
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definitely will be.  Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL.   But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall.

It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem.    

 

Kinda blows.  I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution.  That's not good.

 

 

I don't know if it really matters much yet.  We've seen so much inconsistency/flip flopping in the models, even the GGEM though that has probably been the least odious of the bunch as far as that goes (particularly just focusing on recent cycles).

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Wouldn't shock me if it edges north again 12z. Just an unsubstantiated hunch

0z Euro has a weak/flat wave in Nebraska while the 0z GFS has a much sharper trough digging almost into the panhandle of TX both at 12z Sunday.  Almost like the GEM/GFS trended stronger with the wave but the Euro left it the same.  Slightly stronger, but not much.

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yea, it's horrible.  12z tomorrow will tell the tale....either euro caves or the others do.  Doubt we'll still see this kind of spread then.

Even with recently weak performance, seeing the Euro as the least amped solution makes me a littler nervous. Although I must say that is not how I had us losing out if we do lose out lol. Could be that the Euro just has not caught on to a trend the GFS/GEM already see. Kinda like this week's blizzard... icon_twisted.gif

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is this solution strictly a product of it holding more energy back?

It holds more energy back, probably due to the northern shortwave not digging as aggressively into the Rockies as you mentioned this afternoon.

 

0z Euro has a weak/flat wave in Nebraska while the 0z GFS has a much sharper trough digging almost into the panhandle of TX both at 12z Sunday.  Almost like the GEM/GFS trended stronger with the wave but the Euro left it the same.  Slightly stronger, but not much.

That is what I saw in the 0z models as well. The Euro was stronger with the ridging over AK and a bit farther SW with the PV which argues for the shortwave digging farther southwest, but it was just too weak with it to do anything. The shortwave won't separate from the N. Pac upper low until tomorrow night/Friday morning, so how strong it ends up being is anybody's guess. Although the GFS and GGEM both trended stronger with it overall over the last few runs.

 

here ya go....a tad diff from the ggem

I'd take for selfish reasons.

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