The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This thing is going to be carrying copious amounts of Pacific moisture with it from the cut off spinning over very very warm ssts that are way above normal. Inspite of only modest lift and frontal forcing. Add in arctic fronts, a decent LLJ, some phasing, but a crapload of moisture in the entire column. Huge qpf totals wil come from only modest lift. There will be a GIGANTIC area of light snow with moderate bands where lift is more concentrate and frontal forced bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 that was a different type of storm. It was a true thread the needle app runner. I like what OHweather said...PDII as an analog. We did well with that. I wasn't using March as an analog. I was using it in reference to the clown map. The huge amounts across ohio. Pd2 was definitely east to west. I still have radar loop of it somewhere. That was my favorite storm ever. Maybe because I wasn't expecting more than 6" and ended up with over 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 that was a different type of storm. It was a true thread the needle app runner. I like what OHweather said...PDII as an analog. We did well with that.PDII was a lot slower moving and didn't have similar northern stream involvement. I believe it had a strong -NAO. So I don't think it's a good analog and didn't mean to mention it in that sense. But it looked like crap at 500mb so the point was we don't need a closed off 510dm bomb over Ohio to get over 6" of snow. A sharp shortwave with some Gulf moisture taking on a negative tilt as it moves through Ohio will do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 PDII was a lot slower moving and didn't have similar northern stream involvement. I believe it had a strong -NAO. So I don't think it's a good analog and didn't mean to mention it in that sense. But it looked like crap at 500mb so the point was we don't need a closed off 510dm bomb over Ohio to get over 6" of snow. A sharp shortwave with some Gulf moisture taking on a negative tilt as it moves through Ohio will do the trick. Have these been updated as of 0z? If so, they look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Have these been updated as of 0z? If so, they look fantastic. Looks like last night's unless Im reading it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone have the UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looks like last night's unless Im reading it wrong Yeah, that is 28.0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The low west of the apps gives way to coastal development by 120. The coastal tracks from just off the jersey coast to nova scotia. Too progressive too significantly deepen, but still gives NYC and Boston a good hit. Very 2/14/07-esque with the bowling ball across the Midwest and redevelopment right on the coast. About 3" of snow, sleet, and ice at home outside Philly, but 8"+ less than a county to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone have the UK? Nope. I usually check it through UQAM but they didn't update. Maybe someone with WxBell does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 54 hours the 0z Euro is a little sharper with the shortwave over British Columbia than its 12z run and a little farther west with the PV over Hudson Bay. We'll see if it makes a big difference shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 72 hours the shortwave diving into MT is farther west than the 12z run, but not as far west as the GFS or GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At 84 hours there's a pretty large area of snow from southern IA/MO east through the southern half or so of IL/IN. North of the 12z run (just like the GFS) but still doesn't eject much of the cut-off. Doesn't dig the northern stream shortwave as much as the 0z GFS or Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah it's def better than the 12z run and wetter but probably will be a bit south with the snow swath compared to the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Yeah it's def better than the 12z run and wetter but probably will be a bit south with the snow swath compared to the 0z GFS. definitely will be. Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL. But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall. It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem. Kinda blows. I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution. That's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ECMWF doesn't really have a storm. One for the progressive side. yea it does....it's a 1014 closed contour in the southern apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 definitely will be. Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL. But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall. It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem. Kinda blows. I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution. That's not good. Wouldn't shock me if it edges north again 12z. Just an unsubstantiated hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wouldn't shock me if it edges north again 12z. Just an unsubstantiated hunch is this solution strictly a product of it holding more energy back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yea it does....it's a 1014 closed contour in the southern apps Gosh that could be a weak little high pressure system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 definitely will be. Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL. But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall. It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem. Kinda blows. I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution. That's not good. The point to bring home here is that it did trend more amplified just not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gosh that could be a weak little high pressure system yea, it's horrible. 12z tomorrow will tell the tale....either euro caves or the others do. Doubt we'll still see this kind of spread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 definitely will be. Best snow area straddles the ohio river once east of IL. But even then it's like a 1-4" type snowfall. It's better than 12z but it's light years from the ggem. Kinda blows. I don't like when the euro is holding out on the least amped/suppressed solution. That's not good. I don't know if it really matters much yet. We've seen so much inconsistency/flip flopping in the models, even the GGEM though that has probably been the least odious of the bunch as far as that goes (particularly just focusing on recent cycles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wouldn't shock me if it edges north again 12z. Just an unsubstantiated hunch 0z Euro has a weak/flat wave in Nebraska while the 0z GFS has a much sharper trough digging almost into the panhandle of TX both at 12z Sunday. Almost like the GEM/GFS trended stronger with the wave but the Euro left it the same. Slightly stronger, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yea, it's horrible. 12z tomorrow will tell the tale....either euro caves or the others do. Doubt we'll still see this kind of spread then. Even with recently weak performance, seeing the Euro as the least amped solution makes me a littler nervous. Although I must say that is not how I had us losing out if we do lose out lol. Could be that the Euro just has not caught on to a trend the GFS/GEM already see. Kinda like this week's blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 here ya go....a tad diff from the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 no ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 is this solution strictly a product of it holding more energy back? It holds more energy back, probably due to the northern shortwave not digging as aggressively into the Rockies as you mentioned this afternoon. 0z Euro has a weak/flat wave in Nebraska while the 0z GFS has a much sharper trough digging almost into the panhandle of TX both at 12z Sunday. Almost like the GEM/GFS trended stronger with the wave but the Euro left it the same. Slightly stronger, but not much. That is what I saw in the 0z models as well. The Euro was stronger with the ridging over AK and a bit farther SW with the PV which argues for the shortwave digging farther southwest, but it was just too weak with it to do anything. The shortwave won't separate from the N. Pac upper low until tomorrow night/Friday morning, so how strong it ends up being is anybody's guess. Although the GFS and GGEM both trended stronger with it overall over the last few runs. here ya go....a tad diff from the ggem I'd take for selfish reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If this winter has taught us anything, it's that this will be an unmitigated model disaster right up until halfway through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 no ukmet? http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm It sort of looks like the GFS but I honestly can't tell with such limited data. It's definitely deeper than the Euro. edit -> Just saw the MSLP maps. The low is over Cincy at 00z Monday. That's not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z nam coming in juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z nam has jackpot from Chicago To Detroit,basically I80 and north. It goes only out to 84, but would assume a long duration event, with significant accumulations in the areas mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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