Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A lot better than the 12z/18z just misses the full phase by a little bit though, much better for just about everybody in the forum though. Except you and everyone else in MI, WI, MN, most of IA and northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6"+ for most of IL/IN/OH on the 0z GFS. If this was 24hrs out I'd be pumped. As of now, it just peaks my interest. The 06Z run could show 6"-8" in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 500 mb comparison between last night's aggressive 00z run and tonight's 00z run, valid 00z February 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Except you and everyone else in MI, WI, MN, most of IA and northern IL. Yeah lol, I'm just excited it went back north quite a bit, maybe the GGEM is onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would think that Fridays 12z runs would be the go to True but this event starts Saturday night so tomorrow 12z will be 48 hours out. You have to believe that other than 25 mile shifts, north or south, qpf details, etc...we should have a pretty good idea whether this will be an amped cutting storm, a strung out suppressed storm, or something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ok Hoosier....what was that storm, I think it was valentines day 2007,08? 48 hrs out it had a similar look but stronger....DC was getting slammed on all the models run after run, (like 30" amouts)....we were forecasted to get 12"....then it suddenly shifted north and you guys got a blizzard, we got sleet from hell. I'm insuring against the jinx by bringing this up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 True but this event starts Saturday night so tomorrow 12z will be 48 hours out. You have to believe that other than 25 mile shifts, north or south, qpf details, etc...we should have a pretty good idea whether this will be an amped cutting storm, a strung out suppressed storm, or something in between. Agreed. I'll go with something in between for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ok Hoosier....what was that storm, I think it was valentines day 2007,08? 48 hrs out it had a similar look but stronger....DC was getting slammed on all the models run after run, (like 30" amouts)....we were forecasted to get 12"....then it suddenly shifted north and you guys got a blizzard, we got sleet from hell. I'm insuring against the jinx by bringing this up lol 2/13/2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 sorry Powerball, no way I couldn't bump this. Assuming this storm occurs for some portion of the subforum, models did pretty damn well with the signal 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm sure the 0z Canadian snowmaps will be "pretty" for IA/IL/IN/OH and southern MI. Southern WI also gets some. A bit south of 12z but still gets pretty wound up by the time it gets to SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 00z Canadian gets rid of that erroneous-looking low that was wrapping across lake erie the last couple runs. This is probably a more realistic run and it still snows here. I'll take it. The NAM now digs the northern branch the most, followed by the Canadian, GFS, and this morning's Euro. Edit: Nevermind, sort of. It still ramps up a surface low west of the Apps, but it does appear to have a more realistic evolution to it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CMC You have to post what it ends up with once it runs out a little farther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You have to post what it ends up with once it runs out a little farther I'll take any color on the legend with a reddish hue please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You have to post what it ends up with once it runs out a little farther according to the MA forum, it runs over DC.... I'm liking this west to east look with the models....huge share the wealth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 that PV is saving our skin here in the eastern areas. If it wasn't for that, this thing would probably drive up thru detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 according to the MA forum, it runs over DC.... I'm liking this west to east look with the models....huge share the wealth 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 looking at wxbell, low goes along the OH/WV border and then either heads due east or redevelops due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 according to the MA forum, it runs over DC.... I'm liking this west to east look with the models....huge share the wealth A partial phase here would be nearly ideal for IA/IL/IN/OH and possibly the southern portions of WI/MI...because with a PV over Hudson Bay, a -NAO and some troughing over New England and Nova Scotia ahead of the storm, we'd need a full phase for this to cut up to Detroit. A less phased solution that strengthens a little slower could still give several hours of overrunning snow for a huge area with areas farther east getting into deformation snows on the backside of the low as it gradually strengthens. A full phase would mean more snow but it would screw Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 looking at wxbell, low goes along the OH/WV border and then either heads due east or redevelops due east The low west of the apps gives way to coastal development by 120. The coastal tracks from just off the jersey coast to nova scotia. Too progressive too significantly deepen, but still gives NYC and Boston a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A partial phase here would be nearly ideal for IA/IL/IN/OH and possibly the southern portions of WI/MI...because with a PV over Hudson Bay, a -NAO and some troughing over New England and Nova Scotia ahead of the storm, we'd need a full phase for this to cut up to Detroit. A less phased solution that strengthens a little slower could still give several hours of overrunning snow for a huge area with areas farther east getting into deformation snows on the backside of the low as it gradually strengthens. A full phase would mean more snow but it would screw Ohio a full phase would probably be a faster moving storm too so I'm not sure if the amounts would offset because of that. These west to east situations tend to be slow movers. This is a great set up for us, but I'm dubious of these solutions.... I'd love to find an analog for it. p.s. You know 10 times more about weather than I could ever hope to know....BUT the one thing I'm an expert on is how Ohio gets screwed trust me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GFS and GGEM are pretty weak at 500mb. probably a good thing for us. Looking for a uk update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Some of these solutions really spread the wealth over most of the subforum. Everyone from Cyclone to the Michiganders get some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 a full phase would probably be a faster moving storm too so I'm not sure if the amounts would offset because of that. These west to east situations tend to be slow movers. This is a great set up for us, but I'm dubious of these solutions.... I'd love to find an analog for it. p.s. You know 10 times more about weather than I could ever hope to know....BUT the one thing I'm an expert on is how Ohio gets screwed trust me lol. That you are haha. The GGEM is "more phased" and has more snow, but it isn't as robust as earlier so I'm not sure if a stronger phase would mean a faster system. I'd usually think the opposite. I'm not optimistic for more than maybe a few inches in Athens with rain thrown in at some point, but I'll be in Cleveland probably until Sunday evening this weekend. Could make for a sporty drive back. The GFS and GGEM are pretty weak at 500mb. If it's too strong we watch Lansing jackpot. Look at PDII as an example of a POS 500mb system giving a ton of snow to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Some of these solutions really spread the wealth over most of the subforum. Everyone from Cyclone to the Michiganders get some action. I was just looking at that snowfall map. The entire state of PA gets 10+".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 ggem Just made a mess on my screen lol. Maybe it'll come to fruition. That has March 08 written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just made a mess on my screen lol. Maybe it'll come to fruition. That has March 08 written all over it. that was a different type of storm. It was a true thread the needle app runner. I like what OHweather said...PDII as an analog. We did well with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That you are haha. The GGEM is "more phased" and has more snow, but it isn't as robust as earlier so I'm not sure if a stronger phase would mean a faster system. I'd usually think the opposite. I'm not optimistic for more than maybe a few inches in Athens with rain thrown in at some point, but I'll be in Cleveland probably until Sunday evening this weekend. Could make for a sporty drive back. If it's too strong we watch Lansing jackpot. Look at PDII as an example of a POS 500mb system giving a ton of snow to the area. Funny. me and my buddy was just sitting here sipping a jameson and watching videos of pd2 so it's funny you'd mention it. Definitely would be a good analog based on the gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just made a mess on my screen lol. Maybe it'll come to fruition. That has March 08 written all over it. Ehh slightly different setup But it does look nice. We are on the line here in Cincy as usual, but I like the 0z trends. I had a feeling the storm would come back on either the 0z or 12z runs today. Now the question is....how far NW does she go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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