Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 It might not mean a big difference but it also looks like the wave is a little weaker and comes ashore further north into BC on the 12z GFS compared to the 0z/6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The euro yes but the GGEM and GFS were nice hits here. The GFS screwholes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It might not mean a big difference but it also looks like the wave is a little weaker and comes ashore further north into BC on the 12z GFS compared to the 0z/6z runs. that was a huge difference. The fact that it was weaker, (almost non-existent), didn't allow it to dig towards the southern branch. That was the biggest diff I could see in the 5h between the 06 and 12z. We need a stronger vort in the northern stream instead of these strung-out scraps. I'm not sure how well models handle that and if we could see a turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 euro ens are a little better, (how could they be worse), looks like some spread with some getting as far north as the OH,WV border, but majority are pretty far southeast. The control is as pathetic as the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I am not putting eggs in any one basket at the moment. Way too much uncertainty right now. Although, if I were a betting man, I would give the weaker, unphased solution the better odds right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 fwiw (not much) but the 18z NAM is abandoning the flatter look it had over the northern Plains at 12z. Extrapolating, it would probably still be suppressed, but the hope (and that's all it is at this point) is that maybe this is the beginning of a trend back to a more robust storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A little OT but i was sifting through my old USB and I found these saved images 120 hours out before the GHD storm. Just posting them out as people were making some comparisons with this storm. Again this is the model runs prior to the GHD storm back in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 fwiw (not much) but the 18z NAM is abandoning the flatter look it had over the northern Plains at 12z. Extrapolating, it would probably still be suppressed, but the hope (and that's all it is at this point) is that maybe this is the beginning of a trend back to a more robust storm. Decent slug of moisture heading east over MO after 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A few things that I'm trying to weigh... 1) The northern stream shortwave is still in the N. Pac upper low right now, it hasn't even formed yet. Once it forms it won't be partially sampled until 12z Friday and fully until 0z Saturday as it looks now. Plenty of time for the intensity of that to change. 2) The ridging out west looks plenty amplified to me...not great but it's fairly sharp. The ridging is projected by all three sets of ensembles to really build up towards Alaska Saturday and Sunday. In addition, the AO and NAO will briefly dive negative this weekend into the beginning of next week, with a decent PV over Hudson Bay. This argues for more digging of the polar branch shortwave due to the flow going pretty meridional over central Canada. The amount of digging will also depend on issue 1, but I wouldn't panic over one Euro run. Although the Euro ensembles aren't great, many of them dig the polar branch shortwave more than the op. 3) All three sets of ensembles still have at least some members in the more northern camp (IE Ohio River track or north). Although, all three ensembles follow their op every run which limits their use to an extent. 4) The western US ridging isn't so strong and far east that the cut-off can't eject, and compared to over the weekend the models are in general still more excited about ejecting the cut-off. One known bias of the Euro is it tends to leave energy back too much in the southwest. All in all, two things (the strength of the PJ shortwave and the ejection of the cut-off) are not very predictable, so large swings are still likely for the next couple of days. The pattern appears conducive for the polar jet shortwave to be pretty potent and possibly trend south in later model runs, which would argue for a better phase with the ejecting cut-off. So, unless the models all trend weaker with the PJ shortwave and slower with ejecting the cut-off I wouldn't panic. With some Atlantic blocking, barring a full phase I wouldn't expect this to cut up to Detroit...with a full phase it is possible, but we haven't seen a full phase modeled much except for the by the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 DTX AS FAR AS THIS WEEKEND...MODELS ARE AGAIN JUMPING BACK AND FORTH ONTHE TRACK FOR THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING AWEAKER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE MAIN JET ENERGY ANDSHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THEAREA. SEEING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARYING...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCEPOPS UNTIL MODELS COME TO INTO BETTER CONSENSUS. AT THISPOINT...THE BETTER LOCATIONS FOR SEEING ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY BEAREAS CLOSER TO THE OHIO BORDER. COLDER TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND ASTHE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THEREMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A few things that I'm trying to weigh... 1) The northern stream shortwave is still in the N. Pac upper low right now, it hasn't even formed yet. Once it forms it won't be partially sampled until 12z Friday and fully until 0z Saturday as it looks now. Plenty of time for the intensity of that to change. 2) The ridging out west looks plenty amplified to me...not great but it's fairly sharp. The ridging is projected by all three sets of ensembles to really build up towards Alaska Saturday and Sunday. In addition, the AO and NAO will briefly dive negative this weekend into the beginning of next week, with a decent PV over Hudson Bay. This argues for more digging of the polar branch shortwave due to the flow going pretty meridional over central Canada. The amount of digging will also depend on issue 1, but I wouldn't panic over one Euro run. Although the Euro ensembles aren't great, many of them dig the polar branch shortwave more than the op. 3) All three sets of ensembles still have at least some members in the more northern camp (IE Ohio River track or north). Although, all three ensembles follow their op every run which limits their use to an extent. 4) The western US ridging isn't so strong and far east that the cut-off can't eject, and compared to over the weekend the models are in general still more excited about ejecting the cut-off. One known bias of the Euro is it tends to leave energy back too much in the southwest. All in all, two things (the strength of the PJ shortwave and the ejection of the cut-off) are not very predictable, so large swings are still likely for the next couple of days. The pattern appears conducive for the polar jet shortwave to be pretty potent and possibly trend south in later model runs, which would argue for a better phase with the ejecting cut-off. So, unless the models all trend weaker with the PJ shortwave and slower with ejecting the cut-off I wouldn't panic. With some Atlantic blocking, barring a full phase I wouldn't expect this to cut up to Detroit...with a full phase it is possible, but we haven't seen a full phase modeled much except for the by the GGEM. nice write up. I suspect this will come back...to what degree is the question. It's not unheard of for a threat to disappear like this for one model run in this timeframe, we use to joke about the gfs inevitability to lose a storm 4 days out. Reading thru a lot of the area AFDs,(MI, OH, IN), no met wants to write this off. They all basically punted the model runs this afternoon, left previous thoughts in place with the caveat to wait for some future consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18Z GFS will not shine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z GFS not looking good so far in terms of phasing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z GFS not looking good so far in terms of phasing potential. If anything, the 18z GFS took another step backwards with the weekend system (from the 12z run)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If anything, the 18z GFS took another step backwards with the weekend system (from the 12z run)... Northern stream is slower and therefore no phase. Also weaker jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 18z GFS not looking good so far in terms of phasing potential. yup....look at the diff between the 84nam and 84gfs. Where's the northern stream energy on the gfs? So the question is, playing into biases etc....which solution is more likely? This is where the argument about waiting for better sampling comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 yup....look at the diff between the 84nam and 84gfs. Where's the northern stream energy on the gfs? So the question is, playing into biases etc....which solution is more likely? This is where the argument about waiting for better sampling comes into play. Natural inclination would be to pick anything over the NAM at 84 hours, but who knows. Agree with Powerball that the 18z GFS looks even worse than 12z, which is bad in the sense there's added work to do to get back toward something resembling last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Natural inclination would be to pick anything over the NAM at 84 hours, but who knows. Agree with Powerball that the 18z GFS looks even worse than 12z, which is bad in the sense there's added work to do to get back toward something resembling last night's run. yea but do you remember the difference between yesterdays 18zgfs and the 00zgfs? I went from a solid snowstorm to a rainstorm. 12 hours ago I was sweating thermal issues, (and the ggem says I still am), now I'm being wiffed to the south with cold dry snow showers by those same models that were threatening me with rain 12 hours ago. The swings in the last 24 hours have been insane....we always assume the latest is the final....personally I think we're still swinging, at least until tomorrow 12z. That's when I'll throw the flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ignoring sensible weather impact...in terms of phased/deep storms, we did have Nov 23-24. Getting one of these to benefit many has been tough. The Grinch Storm also....if i remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The Grinch Storm also....if i remember correctly Yup that one phased and bombed pretty good, I managed to get almost 2" snow out of it, and had 15mins of the biggest snowflakes I ever saw to save me from my first green/brown Xmas in probably a decade. I wish the GGEM would win out on this storm and everybody could get a good snow for once this winter, but it doesn't look very likely being the only model left with a big dog. I guess we shall see how the 00Z models go, ahh the life of a weather model addict is so fun lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Through 66hr, the 0z NAM doesn't look too bad...further south/west and stronger with the northern stream wave...it's trying. More precip and further north across the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 0z NAM looks further north this run at least. Yep, an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Through 66hr, the 0z NAM doesn't look too bad...further south/west and stronger with the northern stream wave...it's trying. More precip and further north across the central plains. Its slowly moving that storm out of the Maritimes. Need to move it out a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 FWIW, the 18z GEFS members are split ~50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Everyone @ 00z today: :D Everyone @ 12z onward today: :( lets see where tomorrow takes us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Another step with the NAM towards more digging with the main s/w. Of course, it could just be kooked out on cocoa puffs as it usually is at this range. Real proof will be in the rest of the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM is super amped as every 84 hour NAM is. At least it gives us hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 To be fair, the point at which the northern shortwave came in stronger in the NAM was only 48 hours out...over British Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM is super amped as every 84 hour NAM is. At least it gives us hope. Actually seems like we haven't seen the super amped bias as much this winter compared to previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Actually seems like we haven't seen the super amped bias as much this winter compared to previously. Very true. But it was 100 miles to far west with the storm that just up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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