Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 6z GFS looked even better with regards to getting an actual sfc low into the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some caution from NWS Indy... Quote ONE CAVEAT TO KEEP INMIND...MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS UNDERDONE LOW LEVEL WARMINTRUSIONS AND CAUSED PRECIP TYPE CHALLENGES ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA WITH SURFACE WAVES ALL WINTER LONG. NOT SAYING THIS HAPPENSHERE IF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIOVALLEYS HOLDS. IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS MODELS HONEIN ON A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN THE COMING DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 3:10 PM, KokomoWX said: Some caution from NWS Indy... wow, that never occurred to me Seriously, is there ever a winter system with southern stream involvement effecting the OV where waa isn't a potential issue???? Good lord that's the first and last thing I worry about....and I'm just a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 2:30 PM, DAFF said: Looks like a non thread of the needle event to me which is good for every ones nerves, including my own. If the next clipper manages to verify without much change then this event look to be locked and loaded. We could be turning a corner to a back sided winter..... which model solution are you locking and loading? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 not Debbie downer...not my style...hell I usually bust high 9 outta 10 times.... but one "fear" I have is convective elements robbing the breadth of the QPF shield on the cold side once we are east of the Ozarks... just a trend I am going to be watching on the over running aspect as we get in closer if trends continue with path and strength of SLP fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 3:44 PM, Gilbertfly said: not Debbie downer...not my style...hell I usually bust high 9 outta 10 times.... but one "fear" I have is convective elements robbing the breadth of the QPF shield on the cold side once we are east of the Ozarks... just a trend I am going to be watching on the over running aspect as we get in closer if trends continue with path and strength of SLP fwiw That is always something to watch out for with any storm system coming out from TX/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 3:10 PM, KokomoWX said: Some caution from NWS Indy... Yep. Nice cold rainer for us on the 12z GFS. Though it is much farther north with the low. Alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The 12Z GFS looks worse for over-running later in the weekend. I hope it's just a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 4:16 PM, Chicago WX said: Yep. Nice cold rainer for us on the 12z GFS. Though it is much farther north with the low. Alas... USA_PCPPRSTMP_2m_126.gif I'll await the Euro since it never is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 3:53 PM, Whitelakeroy said: That is always something to watch out for with any storm system coming out from TX/OK well yeah, obv.... my point was the local .... starting point just east of the Ozarks as opposed to the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 First call, esp looking at 12z GFS......DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 4:16 PM, Chicago WX said: Yep. Nice cold rainer for us on the 12z GFS. Though it is much farther north with the low. Alas... that surface map looks goofy. If anything the trend from the 6z to the 12z is for a flatter colder solution. Check out the 500map, same times, top is 6z, bottom is 12z. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's actually not that bad of a run. Still several inches of snow across much of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 4:18 PM, KokomoWX said: I'll await the Euro since it never is wrong. This would be par for the course. Looks like OKK is at 32˚ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 uk flatter weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 3:53 PM, Whitelakeroy said: That is always something to watch out for with any storm system coming out from TX/OK The c On 1/27/2015 at 3:44 PM, Gilbertfly said: not Debbie downer...not my style...hell I usually bust high 9 outta 10 times.... but one "fear" I have is convective elements robbing the breadth of the QPF shield on the cold side once we are east of the Ozarks... just a trend I am going to be watching on the over running aspect as we get in closer if trends continue with path and strength of SLP fwiw On 1/27/2015 at 3:53 PM, Whitelakeroy said: That is always something to watch out for with any storm system coming out from TX/OK The concern for moisture-robbing convection is heightened triple time when you have positively-tilted, sheared out crap like this storm looks to be (versus a wound up/negative-tilt storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And just like that the 12z GFS goes back to more progressive. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 4:29 PM, TheWeatherPimp said: It's actually not that bad of a run. Still several inches of snow across much of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan. Looks like a solid 5" here in CMH. After this winter, I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:10 PM, Chitown Storm said: Another sheared out turd. Next. but you have to admit, it's funny how we allow ourselves to get pulled back in, just to be clobbered over the head again. Now watch the euro come in with some lake bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 4:31 PM, Chicago WX said: This would be par for the course. Looks like OKK is at 32˚ though. gfs_6hr_precip_indy_22.png gfs_t850_indy_22.png gfs_t2m_b_indy_22.png It's snow verbatim for us even though temps are above freezing. Forecast soundings have the freezing level at like 975 mb at the warmest time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 5 days out...can we please avoid the storm cancel/debbie downer posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:30 PM, Hoosier said: 5 days out...can we please avoid the storm cancel/debbie downer posts? This. It's beyond annoying. Go to the banter thread if you're just going to post and say "Next" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Can someone tell me what the heck DAB stands for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:30 PM, Hoosier said: 5 days out...can we please avoid the storm cancel/debbie downer posts? Not to mention the fact that even the weak sauce GFS still delivers 2-5" across much of the area. I mean even that would be decent compared to the rest of the winter and it's just one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:34 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Can someone tell me what the heck DAB stands for? Dusting at Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:34 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Can someone tell me what the heck DAB stands for? Dusting at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Removed. Back to the disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12z GGEM looks pretty decent for N IL and S WI through 120 hours, going off the b/w maps. Little jackpot of around 0.40" close to Geos-land on the 120 hour map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:40 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z GGEM looks pretty decent for N IL and S WI through 120 hours, going off the b/w maps. Little jackpot of around 0.40" close to Geos-land on the 120 hour map. looking at the later frames...looks a lot like the gfs....everyone 'safe' temp wise north of the ohio river...just not a ton of moisture widespread 1-4" for a lot of the subforum south and west of including MI. Keeps that dual low structure, one low in OH the other in the south states, they don't phase til off shore. fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 On 1/27/2015 at 5:43 PM, buckeye said: looking at the later frames...looks a lot like the gfs....everyone 'safe' temp wise north of the ohio river...just not a ton of moisture Yep, see it on WB now. Looks like central IA through the southern 1/2 of WI does best, but everyone gets a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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