Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Figured I'd get this started.. The GFS has been the most bullish the past few runs but as we know the GEM has been big on and off and the Euro has trended better as of 12z as well. Now the 0z GFS is the most bullish so far, slowing down the northern stream and dropping a wave down to attempt phase with the four corners/baja ULL. I don't know if we will get a big storm out of this but I'm liking the growing odds for a possible solid overrunning snow event beginning from the plains and working its way eastward this weekend. We get a decent low/circulation that tries to develop and even with it being somewhat weak, the advection is still fairly strong up and over into the colder air to get precip going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This has a good chance to be one of the better spread the wealth type storms we've seen up to this point. Precip amounts have been increasing on the past few runs of the GFS, and the Euro has been getting less suppressed each run since Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GGEM still fairly suppressed. Overall some decent trends though. Carefully watching the trends with how much of that southwestern energy gets left behind, among other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00z GGEM still fairly suppressed. Overall some decent trends though. Carefully watching the trends with how much of that southwestern energy gets left behind, among other things. Better run/result than its 12z edition though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Better run/result than its 12z edition though. Yeah was just going to say, better than I thought in terms of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 yeah, more out the better Careful, we might be sweating precip type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Anywhere you can see the Euro ensembles for free? I lost all my bookmarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am all for a spread the wealth everyone wins storm. We haven't had one in a while outside of January last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Anywhere you can see the Euro ensembles for free? I lost all my bookmarks. Through day 10 here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Boston gets walloped with 20"+ again on that image. Seems like this could be our best chance with a phasing system around here. Still a ways out but definitely something worth watching. We are all due lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Euro took another pretty big jump again, actually really nice shift. The sfc low is on the KY/TN border at 144hr compared to the AL/GA border on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro definitely playing ball with a nice snow band across much of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro looks GFS-like or even a bit better. Would probably end up being 6"+ for at least Ohio, maybe farther west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The Euro took another pretty big jump again, actually really nice shift. The sfc low is on the KY/TN border at 144hr compared to the AL/GA border on the 12z run. Yep. Widespread 4-6 inch amounts north of the rain/snow line over a large area. This is going to be a very satisfying event for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 0z/12z Euro comparison for same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12z Euro is a nice enough snow for here. About 6.0" total...better to the south and east. Positive runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yep. Widespread 4-6 inch amounts north of the rain/snow line over a large area. This is going to be a very satisfying event for most of us. Easy there, still a good 5 days away lol. But at least we're not dependent on some kind of exotic stall like the current northeastern storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Hoping for this storm to materialize. Its just so far out tho, but lots of potential. ... BTW anyone else cant log in to FB? FB seems to down..(the world is about to end) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 This with what looks like better than a 10:1 snowfall looking at temps and DGZ depths around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Easy there, still a good 5 days away lol. But at least we're not dependent on some kind of exotic stall like the current northeastern storm. lol, yeah. Long ways to go still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Boston gets walloped with 20"+ again on that image. Seems like this could be our best chance with a phasing system around here. Still a ways out but definitely something worth watching. We are all due lol. Wouldn't that be something... Another historic blizzard for the NE coastline. Two in ten days... Would definitely be a year to remember for them. Feeling more confident about this system. Lots of wiggle room. Would be the subforums best widespread event in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The GEM has flopped between the current GFS/ECMWF solutions and suppression. Typical GEM behavior. The 00z ECMWF shows some real potential and would be all snow down to at least the I-70 corridor. I'll leave it at that. I'm not getting invested until T minus 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I will worry about Thursdays clipper than turn attention to this event. Will not trust a THING until Saturday (with the model suck-titude), but I admit its nice to see a stronger trend as we get closer rather than a weaker trend. Have not really seen that this year (outside of a few 1-2" events turning into 2-4" events ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The GEM has flopped between the current GFS/ECMWF solutions and suppression. Typical GEM behavior. The 00z ECMWF shows some real potential and would be all snow down to at least the I-70 corridor. I'll leave it at that. I'm not getting invested until T minus 48 hours I was thinking with the model performance to not get invested until like T-48 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 it's nice to finally have something to track other than a clipper. Nervous about the phase potential with this one and the trends of the recent gfs to come pretty far north. Euro ens are really spread out with the nw flank bringing the low to central Ohio and southeastern flank all the way to the southeast coast....the control is way southeast like the ggem...so needless to say, a lot to be worked out. That being said, this place is due, hopefully as many of us can get hit as possible. Of course I'm rooting for the trough to keep a positive tilt, and a big ole juicy weak, lumbering, low to come out slowly and throw a ton of moisture over the top of that sinking arctic high. I think that's the best case scenario for a share the wealth event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I will worry about Thursdays clipper than turn attention to this event. Will not trust a THING until Saturday (with the model suck-titude), but I admit its nice to see a stronger trend as we get closer rather than a weaker trend. Have not really seen that this year (outside of a few 1-2" events turning into 2-4" events ) I wouldn't worry about Thursday's clipper (slop 1" to at most 4"). Not to belittle it as that has been our winter so far but it doesn't have any chance of being a bigger storm. This coming system has more potential but being 5+ days out it is impossible to get any excitement for it (or just foolish to have any excitement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Except for the far SE part of the forum, this has long duration sugar grinder written all over it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Except for the far SE part of the forum, this has long duration sugar grinder written all over it... And the far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The DGEX is on board. Time Sensitive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like a non thread of the needle event to me which is good for every ones nerves, including my own. If the next clipper manages to verify without much change then this event look to be locked and loaded. We could be turning a corner to a back sided winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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