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January 31st-February 2nd overrunning snow event


Thundersnow12

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Figured I'd get this started..

 

The GFS has been the most bullish the past few runs but as we know the GEM has been big on and off and the Euro has trended better as of 12z as well. 

 

Now the 0z GFS is the most bullish so far, slowing down the northern stream and dropping a wave down to attempt phase with the four corners/baja ULL. I don't know if we will get a big storm out of this but I'm liking the growing odds for a possible solid overrunning snow event beginning from the plains and working its way eastward this weekend.

 

post-266-0-91859500-1422334776_thumb.gif

 

We get a decent low/circulation that tries to develop and even with it being somewhat weak, the advection is still fairly strong up and over into the colder air to get precip going.

 

post-266-0-43492000-1422334770_thumb.gif

 

post-266-0-42290100-1422334743_thumb.gif

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The Euro took another pretty big jump again, actually really nice shift. The sfc low is on the KY/TN border at 144hr compared to the AL/GA border on the 12z run. 

 

Yep.  Widespread 4-6 inch amounts north of the rain/snow line over a large area.  This is going to be a very satisfying event for most of us.

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Yep.  Widespread 4-6 inch amounts north of the rain/snow line over a large area.  This is going to be a very satisfying event for most of us.

 

 

Easy there, still a good 5 days away lol.  But at least we're not dependent on some kind of exotic stall like the current northeastern storm.

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Boston gets walloped with 20"+ again on that image. Seems like this could be our best chance with a phasing system around here. Still a ways out but definitely something worth watching. We are all due lol.

Wouldn't that be something... Another historic blizzard for the NE coastline. Two in ten days... Would definitely be a year to remember for them.

Feeling more confident about this system. Lots of wiggle room. Would be the subforums best widespread event in some time.

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The GEM has flopped between the current GFS/ECMWF solutions and suppression.  Typical GEM behavior.  The 00z ECMWF shows some real potential and would be all snow down to at least the I-70 corridor.  I'll leave it at that.  I'm not getting invested until T minus 48 hours :)

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I will worry about Thursdays clipper than turn attention to this event. Will not trust a THING until Saturday (with the model suck-titude), but I admit its nice to see a stronger trend as we get closer rather than a weaker trend. Have not really seen that this year (outside of a few 1-2" events turning into 2-4" events :lol:)

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The GEM has flopped between the current GFS/ECMWF solutions and suppression.  Typical GEM behavior.  The 00z ECMWF shows some real potential and would be all snow down to at least the I-70 corridor.  I'll leave it at that.  I'm not getting invested until T minus 48 hours :)

I was thinking with the model performance to not get invested until like T-48 seconds :whistle:

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 it's nice to finally have something to track other than a clipper.   Nervous about the phase potential with this one and the trends of the recent gfs to come pretty far north.   Euro ens are really spread out with the nw flank bringing the low to central Ohio and southeastern flank all the way to the southeast coast....the control is way southeast like the ggem...so needless to say, a lot to be worked out. 

 

That being said, this place is due, hopefully as many of us can get hit as possible.   Of course I'm rooting for the trough to keep a positive tilt, and a big ole juicy weak, lumbering, low to come out slowly and throw a ton of moisture over the top of that sinking arctic high.   I think that's the best case scenario for a share the wealth event.

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I will worry about Thursdays clipper than turn attention to this event. Will not trust a THING until Saturday (with the model suck-titude), but I admit its nice to see a stronger trend as we get closer rather than a weaker trend. Have not really seen that this year (outside of a few 1-2" events turning into 2-4" events :lol:)

I wouldn't worry about Thursday's clipper (slop 1" to at most 4").  Not to belittle it as that has been our winter so far but it doesn't have any chance of being a bigger storm.  This coming system has more potential but being 5+ days out it is impossible to get any excitement for it (or just foolish to have any excitement).

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Looks like a non thread of the needle event to me which is good for every ones nerves, including my own. If the next clipper manages to verify without much change then this event look to be locked and loaded. We could be turning a corner to a back sided winter.....

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