tblevins Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 In light of the current discussion surrounding the ongoing blizzard/not blizzard in the northeast and the model hugging by some to predict the outcome, I was thinking tonight, what characteristics make up a good weather forecaster. I'm certainly not versed in the sciences like many on this forum, so this is more of an amateur look at the subject. Here's my list: - understand your own limitations: know your blind spots and lack of knowledge, - know the model biases for your area: how many models are available now? some can do a great job with certain environments and areas, some can be downright awful. There are some on these forums that have said to get rid of model <x>. But in some cases, that model has been spot on with regards to the outcome - Know your micro-climate: what can go wrong with a particular forecast? proximity to a particular region (ocean, mountains, etc) - know your audience: if you announce a 10% chance of snow 10 days out in NYC, then no one will notice..if its somewhere south of I-40, its a promise or guarantee - understand the statistics: if a model is showing a 50 year storm, then be very cautious...even if all the models have latched on to the solution, does it mean its really going to happen? The likelihood is very slim based on statistics...it might actually turn out to be a 5-10 year storm. Also, its interesting to "handicap" those who attempt to forecast the next event on these forums. Some hang on to every positive outcome that may exist for winter weather and some grab on to the most negative of predictions, even if its an outlier model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The most important rule is that snow stops north/south/east/west of the following highways: I-85 I-40 I-77 I-95 US-1 US-64 Then you can say, "snow N/W of I-40/85" or "snow showers north of US-64... south rain", etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Forecasters in the Upstate of SC fail to mention just how much the mountain chains determine our weather. It's like a big wall for the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tblevins Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Interesting to see the headlines today blaming the models for the failure to forecast the storm for areas around NY/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 In my area? Have fun figuring out these mountains around Asheville. Knowing them and their elevation is critical for WNC forecasting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Being man / woman enough to admit you're wrong and blew a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A crapload of money. Ha really...objectivety and patient problem solving would be two highly desired traits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nerves of STEEL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Understanding synoptic meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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