packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's been a complete bummer for snow for central NC for as long as I can remember. I would imagine other cities in the SE snow charts look similar but I do want to offer some hope that sometime in the next few years, hopefully by 2017 or 2018 we will start our trend up on seasonal snowfall. If you see the chart below clearly we are working in approximately 30 year cycles, the previous downturn (1923-1957) lasted 34 years where our 30 year snowfall average dropped to 5.96". The next 29 years we went on a great run and peaked at 8.7" in the late 80's. Since then we have been in another terrible downturn and are going on year 29 of the downturn where our 30 year snowfall average has reached an all time low of 5.31" (including this winter). The point of this is to show that we will start a new upturn, whether we bottom out this year, next year or 2020 remains to be seen but I would think we should start seeing much snowier times. To also support this is that it's no coincidence that our downturn has occurred with the NAO predominately positive since the mid-80's and our 30 year peak occurred when the NAO was predominately negative. If you believe in 30 year weather cycles, then the NAO should be predominately negative the next 30 years. There is hope down the road, might take a few more years, it definitely sucks riding out the tail end of such a bad downturn. Also, the 10+ years coming out of the last downturn we went on a great run where our 10 year average was almost 11". To put things in perspective our current 10 year average is 3.62", LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That is great info. Hopefully, this down-slide will last closer to 30 years instead of 34 like previously. I guess things really do happen in cycles. It's also good to know that when the upswing happens it is usually a pretty big turn from hardly anything to some really good averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It also seems like since the Carolina Crusher in 2000 we have had a lot of winters where we had one really good snow storm here or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Do you have a graph of the running temp average? I'd be interested to see if they match up at all. It's always so tough to tell. I mean 100 data points is a small piece of data really, and our yearly snowfall totals are very high variance numbers because we get several years of snow in one storm from time to time. My suspicion is we are having some events be rain or mix that would have been snow 100 years ago but that's really nothing more than a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good info, Pack. I hope you're right about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Do you have a graph of the running temp average? I'd be interested to see if they match up at all. It's always so tough to tell. I mean 100 data points is a small piece of data really, and our yearly snowfall totals are very high variance numbers because we get several years of snow in one storm from time to time. My suspicion is we are having some events be rain or mix that would have been snow 100 years ago but that's really nothing more than a guess. I don't have the temp graphs but the snowfall numbers are good. Your comment about how we get several years of snow in one snowstorm only occurred in Jan 2000, that is a big misnomer. For example, in the past 30 years RDU has had 15 winters with snowfall below 3". The previous 30 years it happened 2 times. The downturn from the 1927-57 it happened 12 times. Lots of similarities. Once we hit our upturn I expect to have more consistent snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I don't have the temp graphs but the snowfall numbers are good. Your comment about how we get several years of snow in one snowstorm only occurred in Jan 2000, that is a big misnomer. For example, in the past 30 years RDU has had 15 winters with snowfall below 3". The previous 30 years it happened 2 times. The downturn from the 1927-57 it happened 12 times. Lots of similarities. Once we hit our upturn I expect to have more consistent snowy winters. Wow, that is a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow, that is a huge difference. Some more fun facts...from 1987-2015 we have had 6 double digit winters and from 57-87 we had 12 (almost 40% of the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is a still a really big difference in the EURO/NAM vs GFS/CMC for NYC. I can't say this enough, this a BIG moment for the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is a still a really big difference in the EURO/NAM vs GFS/CMC for NYC. I can't say this enough, this a BIG moment for the new GFS. Not to derail Pack's interesting thread. I have seen other discussion about the 30 year NAO cycle and I hope we really are about to go negative for a couple of decades. While this forum is dominated by NC people, I hope the entire South reaps the benefit of that -NAO. Preferably while I'm still young enough to go sledding and crap without breaking a hip. Delta, I'm curious about something with the new GFS, but met isn't my profession so I'm not all that plugged in other than watching discussions and trying to learn. How long did they run the new GFS, prior to making it the official model this month and disabling the old version? And I mean how long did they run it internally, in total, even before it was made public last year. It seems to me that it should have been in testing against live raw data for *at least* two full calendar years, prior to being promoted. If it was my responsibility, that's what I'd have wanted done. I suppose (IF you have the historical raw data) you could have run simulations using that data to see how it performed against the old GFS, but I'm not sure that would be good enough, because I'm not sure how much raw historical data they really had to feed it. I mean you would want literally 10-20 years, to see exactly how it stacked up against the old GFS's results. I bet they didn't have anywhere near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not to derail Pack's interesting thread. I have seen other discussion about the 30 year NAO cycle and I hope we really are about to go negative for a couple of decades. While this forum is dominated by NC people, I hope the entire South reaps the benefit of that -NAO. Preferably while I'm still young enough to go sledding and crap without breaking a hip. Delta, I'm curious about something with the new GFS, but met isn't my profession so I'm not all that plugged in other than watching discussions and trying to learn. How long did they run the new GFS, prior to making it the official model this month and disabling the old version? And I mean how long did they run it internally, in total, even before it was made public last year. It seems to me that it should have been in testing against live raw data for *at least* two full calendar years, prior to being promoted. If it was my responsibility, that's what I'd have wanted done. I suppose (IF you have the historical raw data) you could have run simulations using that data to see how it performed against the old GFS, but I'm not sure that would be good enough, because I'm not sure how much raw historical data they really had to feed it. I mean you would want literally 10-20 years, to see exactly how it stacked up against the old GFS's results. I bet they didn't have anywhere near that. From what I have seen, and I hope/know more should come from some others more knowledgeable than I, but the GFS para *GFS NOW* was worse on scores until the D5 *hr120* and then better than the older GFS after that. (From what I remember) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 From what I have seen, and I hope/know more should come from some others more knowledgeable than I, but the GFS para *GFS NOW* was worse on scores until the D5 *hr120* and then better than the older GFS after that. (From what I remember) Yeah I have seen people say that too. I'm just curious about how long it has been running, probably much longer than it was public, I would imagine. Or hope, anyway. Probably nobody knows unless they are an employee there and if so they probably can't say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncsled Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Im glad you made this thread. Us in central NC must be the most snow crazy of all the forums. I think its because alot of us growing up in the 70's-80's got alot more snow. And now we have been wondering where our snow has gone. Starting in 1989-90 our winters for the most part have sucked. With a few good storms scattered over 25 years. IS it global warming? (im not sure GW is even real) Now for this 30 year NAO pattern. Would this be part of the triple crown of cooling JB has been talking about? And how about our pending low solar activity that caused a little ice age centuries ago? I read some old newspapers about big snowstorms in the south during the 1700-1800's. It must have been killer setups back then ie super blocking,cross polar flow,50/50, and etc. I wish we could get winter weather like that again or even exceed it. I guess in the meantime we will be stuck between Global Warming, Little Ice Age, Joe Bastardi's triple crown of cooling or crap which is our present winters in NC have been since 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice looking storm for sure. Kuddos to the GFS. It pretty much whipped the EURO's butt with the amounts over NYC and further south. The most I have seen from LI is around 7-18" (ISP) so, really good job by the GFS with a EURO blend. I would say the GFS by far did the best with this one. It appears the GFS is going to do the best in MA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Im glad you made this thread. Us in central NC must be the most snow crazy of all the forums. I think its because alot of us growing up in the 70's-80's got alot more snow. And now we have been wondering where our snow has gone. Starting in 1989-90 our winters for the most part have sucked. With a few good storms scattered over 25 years. IS it global warming? (im not sure GW is even real) Now for this 30 year NAO pattern. Would this be part of the triple crown of cooling JB has been talking about? And how about our pending low solar activity that caused a little ice age centuries ago? I read some old newspapers about big snowstorms in the south during the 1700-1800's. It must have been killer setups back then ie super blocking,cross polar flow,50/50, and etc. I wish we could get winter weather like that again or even exceed it. I guess in the meantime we will be stuck between Global Warming, Little Ice Age, Joe Bastardi's triple crown of cooling or crap which is our present winters in NC have been since 1990. We feel the exact same here in the upstate about the snow. At least you guys got in on some of the big ones since 2000 though like Jan 2000 and Feb 04. I've wondered about some of those winters way back when as well.I've read before something about some revolutionary troops marching here in GSP area with 2 feet of snow on the ground. Since late 1800s the biggest in upstate was 15 back early 1900s. Since then, Jan 88 was biggest. I've also heard stories about how people used to ice skate on ponds in western Carolinas, and not just the mountains. Would be nice to experience just one of those winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Im glad you made this thread. Us in central NC must be the most snow crazy of all the forums. I think its because alot of us growing up in the 70's-80's got alot more snow. And now we have been wondering where our snow has gone. You are not alone. Pack's data for NC is very similar to that of Nashville. Maybe even worse over here. Nashville has really been skunked the last couple of decades. Nashville's average yearly snowfall was over a foot in the 60s-80s period, now its down in the 5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I remember recently reading an article about the solar cycles over the next 30 years and that we should be entering a period of weaker solar activity leading to colder winters. I just can't remember where I read it at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Great info Pack...Thanks for posting! Growing up here in Cary, I remember the good winters of the 80's. I sure would like to return to those type of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I remember recently reading an article about the solar cycles over the next 30 years and that we should be entering a period of weaker solar activity leading to colder winters. I just can't remember where I read it at. Activity does seem to be dropping with each cycle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Activity does seem to be dropping with each cycle: Thanks for posting! Why I am hoping that in 2-3 more years we start to turn the corner. Until then we are going to need some luck and get some flukes like 2000/2002. It is interesting seeing great winters at the bottom of each cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thanks for posting! Why I am hoping that in 2-3 more years we start to turn the corner. Until then we are going to need some luck and get some flukes like 2000/2002. It is interesting seeing great winters at the bottom of each cycle. No problem. I really like this site to monitor numbers: http://spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I should have looked more closely to see how nino's were going for us, these were the past 7 nino's. 2 climo and 5 duds. LOL, and I used to think nino's were snowy for us. So really this winter is behaving as past nino's have. RDU Nino's since 1990. 2010 - 7.9 2007 - 1.6 2005 - 0.9 2003 - 7.4 1998 - 2.4 1995 - 2.2 1992 - 0 AVG 3.2" I responded to this originally in the banter thread but it quickly got buried. Do you know what the Nino's were like during the 30 years that were above average snowfall? Maybe 1960 to 1990? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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