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January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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Was just out with the dog, I went over to Emerson Park and let her off the leash. We have a ton of snow otg.....I would not be surprised if we've hit 20 and now the banding is ramping up again. We'll see.

 

Yeah I took some photos of our neighborhood earlier.

If we maintain status quo snow rates through afternoon, and especially if we get remnants of deformation band, I think we make 20.

 

post-3106-0-36047900-1422372255_thumb.jp

 

post-3106-0-47599200-1422372256_thumb.jp

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What sucks about what happened down in NYC is that some useless ass pustule is undoubtedly going to impugn the efforts of the Meteorological community in the public specter, and that will set up society beautifully for when the 30" storm really occurs...

Perhaps, but like you said it will be a useless ass pustule. I thought Gov. Cuomo handled it well in the press conference this morning saying that he was lambasted for calling out the meteorologists with the Buffalo lake effect situation last month, and so he has learned his lesson about doing that. They are tripling the number of weather stations in NY, and that meteorology is an imperfect science, and that they were riding the 4PM package from OKX last night to justify the closures. Also mentioned all the snow on Long Island and that forecast totals weren't necessarily wrong just displaced to the east, and the city got lucky and he would rather get lucky than be unlucky and have loss of life. So I would say the important people get it.
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over 2 feet here on east side of ORH (near 190/290 junction). Snow is deeper than in any one storm since I've been here (almost 18 years). Was up to mid back on walk way away from the bigger drifts (over head high). Places that normally are bare (or down to old snow cover) are well covered. Railing on walkway covered (a first also). So much wind though it would be hard to get a firm measure. Temp -9C/17F. Wind gusts in  my protected location 20 mph, but much higher all around.

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It wasn't wise to forecast 24-36 in NYC imo.

 

I agree here, too.   And I would not say the Met community is without culpability in pre-storm assessments; it's mostly just that it is unfortunate, the combination of over prediction and bad luck are undoubtedly going to take a public opinion toll.

 

But Will and I agreed two days ago that the snow totals did not look realistic, even up here where it was more definite that impact would be measurable, we said 18-24+ was more responsible wording.   In fact, I recall typing that I thought it was never a good idea to use words like "Historic" in discussions and forecasts, particularly those that go out to the public, because too much can go wrong when everything "looks" set up perfect -- because the only things that can emerge are negative factors once the extreme solution is modeled. 

 

We are closer in science then we are in technology... The latter needs to catch up, to the point where more accurate and nuanced assessments are more likely to be correctly modeled.  We aren't there yet. 

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Has anyone else noticed this.. Even though radar says very light snow.. The intensity of the snow is much heavier? I mean there's pribably 1/4-1/2 inch per hour falling here and radar says flurries

Noticed the split in the returns, its pouring snow here, but someone I know last ving under that snow hole says its snowing good?

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