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January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CRIPPLING AND HISTORIC WINTER STORM / BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE

REGION INTO TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR

SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO

FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WITH 1 TO 2 FT OF

SNOW...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND

* MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

7 AM UPDATE...

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH

CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED AT THE ED GE OF THE DRY

SLOT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN EAST OF NEW ENG.

SFC LOW DOWN TO NEAR 980 MB ALSO NEAR THE BENCHMARK AS SYSTEM IS

BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH EXPECTED

DURING TODAY AS THE LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM

WHICH WILL PROLONG OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...

CLASSIC DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA

EXTENDING INTO NE CT AND N RI. VERY HEAVY SNOW UNDER THIS BAND

WITH SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY 2-3"/HOUR. NAM MID LEVEL FGEN FIELDS

DOING A VERY GOOD JOB SIGNALING THIS BAND AND SHOW A SLOW

WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. SO WHILE THE

INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT...STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL

HEAVY SNOW TODAY ACROSS E HALF NEW ENG. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF

HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE

FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. IN FACT...RECEIVING REPORTS OF

THUNDER SNOW ACROSS THE CAPE AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM

ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION.

HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT STILL

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE NOW.

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY RANGE

FROM 6-10 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE SNOW ACCUM MAP...WITH MAX ACCUM

AROUND 2 FT AND LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM NE CT

THROUGH CENTRAL/NE MA AND EXTENDING S ALONG E COASTAL MA TO THE

UPPER CAPE. LOWERED AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW ENG AND

ACROSS RI AND ADJACENT INTERIOR SE MA WHICH WILL LARGELY REMAIN

OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF NEW ENG WITH

CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS WILL

BE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ADDING TO THE

SEVERITY AND LIFE THREATENING ASPECT OF THE STORM. TRAVEL WILL BE

NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.

WIND...

CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FOR

THE CAPE/ISLANDS TO COASTAL SE MA AS LOW PRES DEEPENS NEAR THE

BENCHMARK. LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 75 KTS PERSISTS IN THIS REGION.

SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS TO 75 MPH

IN THIS REGION...WITH GUSTS TO 50-60 BACK TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND

30-40 FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE AND WIDESPREAD

POWER OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE

CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ADD TO LOAD.

TEMPS...

COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WEST

OF THE FRONT AND 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO

REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 TODAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND

EVENTUALLY FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SE COASTAL MA THIS

AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TONIGHT...

AS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH FROM EAST OF CAPE COD...EXPECT SNOW

TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR

ADDITIONAL ACCUM POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VERY COLD WITH LOWS DOWN

INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS...EXCEPT TEENS IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT

SUBZERO WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING WIND CHILL

THRESHOLD OF -15 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN

MA.

&&

 

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