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January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

4 of the 6 reporting sites on the cape were sustained 40+ last hour

 

FALMOUTH       SNOW      30  28  93 NE45G56   29.41F VSB 1/4 WCI  12

PROVINCETOWN   CLOUDY    30  28  93 NE40G56   29.53F VSB 1/4 WCI  13

NANTUCKET      LGT SNOW  33  31  92 NE53G66   29.31F VSB 1   WCI  15

MARTHAS VNYRD  FOG       29  27  92 N43G61    29.35F VSB 1/2 WCI  11

 

 

 

Falmouth is to my SW more inland several miles.  I'm at about 50 mph sustained and having gusts in the mid 60s. 

 

This is approaching 2005 now in terms of winds etc.  Freaking crazy. 

 

Box radar is fascinating -  seeing a pinch as the stuff west drifts east and everything else pivots up.  Should see 2, 3, 4" per hour rates over EM, RI, parts of CT.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Super Worried Snowman here. 18 Hours has produced 5.5". Am I really getting the Death Band back and then it stalls? That's the only way I see 18.5" - 24.5" on top to get my 24-30.

5.0" OTG for storm

9" OTG Total

Storm Total = 5.5"

3.5" in 6.5 hours

You were in bad sucker hole for the first few hours

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted

Box AFD 340am update saying don't go to sleep:

 

Very intense mesoscale band setting up across north CT through central/NE Massachusetts associated with the strengthening middle level frontogenesis with the deepening middle level low producing strong Omega through the dendritic growth zone. Probably seeing 2-4"/hour snowfall rates in this band. Meanwhile...pulses of heavier snow
bands which are convective in nature continue to move from the ocean across southeast Massachusetts. Very heavy cluster over the islands will be moving up across southeast Massachusetts next 1-2 hours. Middle level lapse rates over 6 c/km across southeast new eng suggesting potential for upright convection and thunder snow. Snowfall rates 2-3"/hour will be developing in southeast Massachusetts and portions of Cape Cod.

How these bands evolve today will be critical to the snowfall forecast and this will be tricky. GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep the best middle level frontogenesis across east Massachusetts while NAM is further west across central Massachusetts into CT. NAM seems to be handling this the best and keep this band in the same general area before weakening and moving east. Meanwhile...low level convergence and frontogenesis associated with the coastal front across southeast Massachusetts will result in a secondary maximum in eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod with occasional heavy snow.

We have only made slight modifications to the snow accumulate...lowering slightly in the Berkshires and increasing across Cape Cod...especially near the canal. Still looking for maximum snowfall across NE CT through central Massachusetts...with secondary maximum across east Massachusetts to the Cape Cod canal. Around 2 feet expected in this area...locally 30-36 inches possible where persistent bands set up. Lesser amounts in between bands.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

This is a dream come true.

 

I don't think I'm going to b*tch again all winter.

 

If the RGEM is right and for the most part this is over at about lunch...wow.  Seems odd and it's the b&w graphics.  Low position looked good for onshore bands at 1pm.

 

WIth what is coming together for this next 5-9 hours...we shouldn't complain.

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