Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 There are some pretty good dynamics with this system (very steep mid-level lapse rates just to our west and 40kt LLJ). Just a shame that it will be hauling ass and peak just to our east. But definitely could envision some brief periods of ripping snow in spots where it's cold enough... I really wish it would slow up but alas it is what it is...a quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Meh Im not hugging any forecasts for tomorrow. The RGEM would be all snow from Wayne county north (and even mostly snow in Monroe county), the NAM is still a hot mess, and the GFS seems to be a mix. Whats funny is the liquid would likely fall when its well below freezing and then it would turn to snow as the 850 temp cools but the air temp rises. Any forecast has major bust potential tomorow for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Meh Im not hugging any forecasts for tomorrow. The RGEM would be all snow from Wayne county north (and even mostly snow in Monroe county), the NAM is still a hot mess, and the GFS seems to be a mix. Whats funny is the liquid would likely fall when its well below freezing and then it would turn to snow as the 850 temp cools but the air temp rises. Any forecast has major bust potential tomorow for Detroit. I was thinking the same thing about the temps going in opposite directions and precip. types. Not surprising in this goofy winter. This seems like one of those events where if the precip. ends up being heavier, there could be more snow than a mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thursday Rain and freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet before 4pm, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 38. South wind around 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This storm is driving me crazy for MBY, some models say 1" some say close to 5". Why can't the models just do a decent job and actually agree on totals for once this year ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Expect a surprise now...IF DTX shows 1 inch we get 5, if they show 5 we get one...Its on! Wow, so you're calling for 5" tomorrow then? It looks like it's NWS vs. Ajdos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow, so you're calling for 5" tomorrow then? It looks like it's NWS vs. Ajdos. More like NWS vs. , haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 More like NWS vs. , haha! Something about stones and glass houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z and 18z RGEM runs both showed 4 to almost 5" about 20 miles north of DTX so it's not a complete weenie idea lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z and 18z RGEM runs both showed 4 to almost 5" about 20 miles north of DTX so it's not a complete weenie idea lol. Oh it's possible, especially up toward the thumb. As terrible as models have been this year, I wouldn't be shocked. I'm sure DTX wouldn't be shocked either. But calling them out for not going 5" for tomorrow is sorta... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think there is a huge bust potential for this system wrt precip types and amounts. Set the bar low and spread all precip types out there and hope for the best. As the system matures overhead DTX can massage the forecast to a more pinpoint one. Here I'm thinking; snow, to sleet, moderate freezing rain, to light snow on the backside. Grand tally 1.25" of snowcrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ajdos was just joking around with me ... you are taking him way to serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think there is a huge bust potential for this system wrt precip types and amounts. Set the bar low and spread all precip types out there and hope for the best. As the system matures overhead DTX can massage the forecast to a more pinpoint one. Here I'm thinking; snow, to sleet, moderate freezing rain, to light snow on the backside. Grand tally 1.25" of snowcrete We really need things to fire up early on radar ...man that last HRRR (1Z) is showing a dud. The dynamics are there but this could mostly end up mostly as Lake Huron fish food Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Ajdos was just joking around with me ... you are taking him way to serious. lol people don't know how to take jokes sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 In the future please place jokes within [joke] brackets to avoid confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Getting a legit rain shower....almost too heavy for any ice accumulation with temps just barely below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CMC continues to show all snow for S/E Mi. Interesting that it has been very consistent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nice clipper. Ranks rights right up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Hmmm, NAM won with it's crap snow totals it was showing. Had a couple fast 30dbz bursts of snow come through here though this morning. I have about an inch out there now, maybe another half inch or so later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A light dusting of snow (0.1") and a few spits of freezing drizzle. Now the models make it look like a band of snow may develop and strengthen as the front moves through this afternoon, but I doubt we see anything (other than maybe some spits of drizzle) before then. Even if that band does develop and some areas sneak in enough precip to match what the models had been showing, it will be for different, unforecast reasons that the precip total matched qpf. Some have been in our favor, some have been against us, but almost every event this winter has been blown by the models. Almost every single one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 getting a pretty heavy duty burst of snow currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow the radar filled back in great for MBY over the last 45mins or so. It's looking like 2hrs of moderate to heavy at times snow coming at me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow the radar filled back in great for MBY over the last 45mins or so. It's looking like 2hrs of moderate to heavy at times snow coming at me now We've had about an inch here so far. It looks like that band toward you should swing through here later this morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Gaylord NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of Northern Lower MI. 3" to 5" is what there calling for up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Soo what do you know, the NAM finally nailed a storm!!! (the one time many probably didn't want it to). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Snowing in these parts unexpectedly. Sidewalks icy too. Thought this would glide by sans wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Greater salt accumulations on my lots than precipitation..... Waiting patiently for round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We've had about an inch here so far. It looks like that band toward you should swing through here later this morning too. That band looked pretty good on radar but the snow was unimpressive and barely accumulated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This is the most sleet I have seen in some time ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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