TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm a little confused why the NAM is showing pretty much nothing for us on Thursday, while the other models are showing a couple inches of snow. What is it keying in on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm a little confused why the NAM is showing pretty much nothing for us on Thursday, while the other models are showing a couple inches of snow. What is it keying in on? Let me spell it for you N A M ... ... Honestly though I wouldn't worry about what the NAM is showing until Wednesday evening. Keep in mind that you are not in the best position for this clipper thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the "hybrid clipper" will bring in some healthy breezes on Thursday, after the front. Wind gusts may be 35-40 kts at Detroit. LES should kick up in northern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think the "hybrid clipper" will bring in some healthy breezes on Thursday, after the front. Wind gusts may be 35-40 kts at Detroit. LES should kick up in northern lower MI. I'm thinking the wind potential will be stunted some by the stiff low-level inversion and the lack of strong CAA, but I suppose it's something else to watch... I think the "hybrid clipper" will bring in some healthy breezes on Thursday, after the front. Wind gusts may be 35-40 kts at Detroit. LES should kick up in northern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 18Z NAM still says what snow? Maybe it's too embarrased to show any snow totals after it's epic NYC/NJ bust yesterday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 The only glimmer of hope for this one is that it won't be fully sampled until the 12z runs tomorrow. Otherwise, yeah, it's a rather paltry system for all of our intents and purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 18Z GFS trending a bit lower with snow totals again, this is looking pretty zzzzzz now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GEM & GFS have over 0.3" qpf here....ptype is a concern, but imagine it will be of the wintry variety mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Note: The GFS and NAM still have at least 0.01" of freezing rain and sleet in lower MI, although none of the NWS offices think this will be a big issue. (As far as I can tell.) http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=gfs&run=00&fhr=23&field=acctype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 GEM & GFS have over 0.3" qpf here....ptype is a concern, but imagine it will be of the wintry variety mostly. The GEM's qpf doesn't seem to match its solution. The GFS makes physical sense, but it's also the strongest model by far. It would also be a freaking warm solution. Snow ratios would be lucky to touch 10:1. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Note: The GFS and NAM still have at least 0.01" of freezing rain and sleet in lower MI, although none of the NWS offices think this will be a big issue. (As far as I can tell.) http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=gfs&run=00&fhr=23&field=acctype DTX mentioned it, but 0.01" of freezing rain is probably hard to make a big deal out of more than 24 hours ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Temperature profiles are a hot mess down here. Kitchen sink precip will fall here. FWA may have a few hours of "unknown precip" obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Time for a guess for MBY => 2" with confidence => shaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 With the cold on the backside of the system, pounding salt will be a must. With the very low snow ratios and marginal temps once this sets its going to make a snowcrete base which will be impossible to break apart even with salt. In this region it will create a great drifting conditions for the weekends system. Today will be check over the equipment, fuel up and plug it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Time for a guess for MBY => 2" with confidence => shaky 2-3" for us is my call. Elevation will play a role here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Thinking a nice quick hitting 2.5" for IMBY. Temps will likely stay below freezing for the duration here, critical thicknesses look good for all snow, should be the same for YYZ proper. Hopefully this sets a nice base for any snow during the Feb 2nd system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The only glimmer of hope for this one is that it won't be fully sampled until the 12z runs tomorrow. Otherwise, yeah, it's a rather paltry system for all of our intents and purposes. I honestly don't know why anyone would've expected more than a sloppy 2" of snow out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Can't wait for my sloppy mix of ice/sleet/snow that amounts to about an inch. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At least us in MI still have this little baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 At least us in MI still have this little baby Yep. Better then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yep. Better then nothing. Wow the forecast just went from a pure snow event for us north of M59 to this: FROM DTX NWS FENTON P&C for Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then snow and sleet. High near 33. South southeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tomorrow looks like a VERY tricky forecast for Detroit. Could be all snow, could be a sloppy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tomorrow looks like a VERY tricky forecast for Detroit. Could be all snow, could be a sloppy mix. Good luck with tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow the forecast just went from a pure snow event for us north of M59 to this: FROM DTX NWS FENTON P&C for Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then snow and sleet. High near 33. South southeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Expect a surprise now...IF DTX shows 1 inch we get 5, if they show 5 we get one...Its on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Expect a surprise now...IF DTX shows 1 inch we get 5, if they show 5 we get one...Its on! True ... at lease there is finally hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Freezing drizzle and rain in tomorrow's forecast for southern Wisconsin. Special Weather Statement in effect but no amounts yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Wow the forecast just went from a pure snow event for us north of M59 to this: FROM DTX NWS FENTON P&C for Thursday: Freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then snow and sleet. High near 33. South southeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. True ... at lease there is finally hope You may definitely fair better with what little the system tomorrow has to offer because of elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 You may definitely fair better with what little the system tomorrow has to offer because of elevation. Yes it is systems like this I can benefit being at 1100' though I have learned never to count it but rather consider it an overachiever or a bonus if the elevation saves me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 There are some pretty good dynamics with this system (very steep mid-level lapse rates just to our west and 40kt LLJ). Just a shame that it will be hauling ass and peak just to our east. But definitely could envision some brief periods of ripping snow in spots where it's cold enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Looks like some sloppy garbage. In November and early December I can accept this, but what a waste of January-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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