Powerball Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Like just about every system this season, it doesn't look to be major. Maybe a 2-5" snowfall for some folks and renewed mixing concerns for others. But I figure it deserves its own thread since the January 26th-27th got it's own thread and one had not been created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good fgen on the GFS and GEM with the low remaining more tied to the lead shortwave. That could be several inches for someone in Southeast Michigan. ECMWF, aka party pooper, is faster and more northern stream dominant and hits us with a quick couple inches. The Euro would even have some ptype issues or a period of just plain rain along the Ohio border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Guessing St. Louis is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Saint Louis, Michigan yes. Saint Louis, Missouri no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Saint Louis, Michigan yes. Saint Louis, Missouri no. Saint Louis, Michigan yes. Saint Louis, Missouri no. In all seriousness, not sure based on how these clippers be it "hybrid" " Manitoba mauler" "Alberta clipper" or " Saskatchewan screamer" have behaved can anyone prog. for any particular area outside of 24 hours. In almost all cases they have underperformed and been shunted meekly to the south and west. This would seem even more the case with the blockbuster out east and building cold pool which I expect to back build into the Midwest. Still think Cape Girardeau, MO. is game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Its on my radar for sure, but the way the models have been this season, I am holding off any excitement or worry until Wednesday (unless the unlikely scenario of it completely disappears happens). I just hope starting a thread isnt bad mojo, as early threads havent gone too well this year (one of our better snowfalls that exceeded expectations a bit, Jan 21, had no thread and we discussed in short term thread). If it works out, I nominate powerball to start all future threads lol. But you guys know me, freshen up the snowpack ahead of the next arctic blast. the beat of winter 2014-15 goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Its on my radar for sure, but the way the models have been this season, I am holding off any excitement or worry until Wednesday (unless the unlikely scenario of it completely disappears happens). I just hope starting a thread isnt bad mojo, as early threads havent gone too well this year (one of our better snowfalls that exceeded expectations a bit, Jan 21, had no thread and we discussed in short term thread). If it works out, I nominate powerball to start all future threads lol. But you guys know me, freshen up the snowpack ahead of the next GLANCING arctic blast. the beat of winter 2014-15 goes on... FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like a solid 1.5"-2.0" type snow for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like a solid 1.5"-2.0" type snow for SEMI Yeah, I think the amounts will mainly be on the low end of my 2-5" range,, but I wanted to give myself buffer room in the unlikely event this one overachives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 looks like a rain to snow shower.....frontal passage event for us down here. Actually I'm not worried about specifics, as long as it does what it needs to in order to set the stage for 'something' more interesting this weekend. Fingers crossed for a widespread overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The snowpack around here is like a 6 inch solid glacier now. We need some fresh snow for winter activities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 In all seriousness, not sure based on how these clippers be it "hybrid" " Manitoba mauler" "Alberta clipper" or " Saskatchewan screamer" have behaved can anyone prog. for any particular area outside of 24 hours. In almost all cases they have underperformed and been shunted meekly to the south and west. This would seem even more the case with the blockbuster out east and building cold pool which I expect to back build into the Midwest. Still think Cape Girardeau, MO. is game. It could go south but with the east coast low filling and moving away, I don't know how much of a player that will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like a solid 1.5"-2.0" type snow for SEMI next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 next You're going to take it and like it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The snowpack around here is like a 6 inch solid glacier now. We need some fresh snow for winter activities! I was out your way last Wednesday, it was noticeably worse near the coast... Up toward Baldwin and Bridgeton there was nice snow in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The snowpack around here is like a 6 inch solid glacier now. We need some fresh snow for winter activities! About 4" on the ground at my place, but like you said, it is hard and crusty right now. Some fresh snow would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 About 4" on the ground at my place, but like you said, it is hard and crusty right now. Some fresh snow would be nice. Ditto IMBY. Hoping this event will continue the trend southward just a little bit. Right now the REG has me on the snow/ZR/PL line. I guess it would not surprise me this winter. Funny how just a few days ago the the models used to have this same period bitter cold with <-20C 850s but now I may have precip type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EURO is hot mess for Southern Lower Michigan. Borderline dismal event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EURO is hot mess for Southern Lower Michigan. Borderline dismal event Great! This gets worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You're going to take it and like it!! LOL.. I GIVE UP , at least its sunny outside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EURO is hot mess for Southern Lower Michigan. Borderline dismal event CMC as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 CMC as well... Will get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 looks like a rain to snow shower.....frontal passage event for us down here. Actually I'm not worried about specifics, as long as it does what it needs to in order to set the stage for 'something' more interesting this weekend. Fingers crossed for a widespread overrunning event. I would venture to guess the NE gets 2-3 more historic blizzards before we get a storm over 5" this winter. Simply put, I wouldn't count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would venture to guess the NE gets 2-3 more historic blizzards before we get a storm over 5" this winter. Simply put, I wouldn't count on it. January 2014 was our historic storm. 8-18 inches in the midwest translates to 20-30 inches for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 1 or 2 more Ticks North as is the trend on this one and I'll be worrying about a mix up here in Central MI. pretty silly seeing this one slowly trend north vs all the other clipper type storms trend massively south, although this isn't a true clipper like those were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 1 or 2 more Ticks North as is the trend on this one and I'll be worrying about a mix up here in Central MI. pretty silly seeing this one slowly trend north vs all the other clipper type storms trend massively south, although this isn't a true clipper like those were.the clipper-like storms last week were north of guidance. Most have been south, but no discernable bias this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 No big trends on the 00z guidance really. GEM and GFS would still have a solid 2-4 with the closed surface low tracking along or south of I-94. The Euro would be more like 1-2 north of I-94. Could see some ptype issues as far north as M59 if we can't close off the surface low to the south at all. The Euro just warm advects throughout the event. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 With snowcover and frozen solid ground, I would imagine if we dont get all snow, any liquid that falls would be of the icy variety, even if its like 33F out. Surprised DTX went rain and snow likely. I guess we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Slush 1" to a nice 4" system. We'll see how things line up on Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS shows a nice hit from Detroit northward. Solid 3-4". Detroit south its a thread the needle event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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