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January 29th-30th Hybrid Clipper


Powerball

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Like just about every system this season, it doesn't look to be major. Maybe a 2-5" snowfall for some folks and renewed mixing concerns for others.

 

But I figure it deserves its own thread since the January 26th-27th got it's own thread and one had not been created. 

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Good fgen on the GFS and GEM with the low remaining more tied to the lead shortwave.  That could be several inches for someone in Southeast Michigan.  ECMWF, aka party pooper, is faster and more northern stream dominant and hits us with a quick couple inches.  The Euro would even have some ptype issues or a period of just plain rain along the Ohio border.

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Saint Louis, Michigan yes. Saint Louis, Missouri no.

Saint Louis, Michigan yes. Saint Louis, Missouri no.

In all seriousness, not sure based on how these clippers be it "hybrid" " Manitoba mauler" "Alberta clipper" or " Saskatchewan screamer" have behaved can anyone prog. for any particular area outside of 24 hours. In almost all cases they have underperformed and been shunted meekly to the south and west. This would seem even more the case with the blockbuster out east and building cold pool which I expect to back build into the Midwest. Still think Cape Girardeau, MO. is game.

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Its on my radar for sure, but the way the models have been this season, I am holding off any excitement or worry until Wednesday (unless the unlikely scenario of it completely disappears happens).  I just hope starting a thread isnt bad mojo, as early threads havent gone too well this year (one of our better snowfalls that exceeded expectations a bit, Jan 21, had no thread and we discussed in short term thread). If it works out, I nominate powerball to start all future threads lol.

 

But you guys know me, freshen up the snowpack ahead of the next arctic blast. the beat of winter 2014-15 goes on...

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Its on my radar for sure, but the way the models have been this season, I am holding off any excitement or worry until Wednesday (unless the unlikely scenario of it completely disappears happens).  I just hope starting a thread isnt bad mojo, as early threads havent gone too well this year (one of our better snowfalls that exceeded expectations a bit, Jan 21, had no thread and we discussed in short term thread). If it works out, I nominate powerball to start all future threads lol.

 

But you guys know me, freshen up the snowpack ahead of the next GLANCING arctic blast. the beat of winter 2014-15 goes on...

 

 

 

FYP

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In all seriousness, not sure based on how these clippers be it "hybrid" " Manitoba mauler" "Alberta clipper" or " Saskatchewan screamer" have behaved can anyone prog. for any particular area outside of 24 hours. In almost all cases they have underperformed and been shunted meekly to the south and west. This would seem even more the case with the blockbuster out east and building cold pool which I expect to back build into the Midwest. Still think Cape Girardeau, MO. is game.

 

 

It could go south but with the east coast low filling and moving away, I don't know how much of a player that will be. 

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The snowpack around here is like a 6 inch solid glacier now. We need some fresh snow for winter activities! 

 

I was out your way last Wednesday, it was noticeably worse near the coast... Up toward Baldwin and Bridgeton there was nice snow in the woods.

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About 4" on the ground at my place, but like you said, it is hard and crusty right now.  Some fresh snow would be nice.

Ditto IMBY.

 

Hoping this event will continue the trend southward just a little bit.  Right now the REG has me on the snow/ZR/PL line.  I guess it would not surprise me this winter.  Funny how just a few days ago the the models used to have this same period bitter cold with <-20C 850s but now I may have precip type issues :lol:

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looks like a rain to snow shower.....frontal passage event for us down here.    Actually I'm not worried about specifics, as long as it does what it needs to in order to set the stage for 'something' more interesting this weekend.    Fingers crossed for a widespread overrunning event.

 

I would venture to guess the NE gets 2-3 more historic blizzards before we get a storm over 5" this winter.  Simply put, I wouldn't count on it. 

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I would venture to guess the NE gets 2-3 more historic blizzards before we get a storm over 5" this winter. Simply put, I wouldn't count on it.

January 2014 was our historic storm. 8-18 inches in the midwest translates to 20-30 inches for the coast.

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1 or 2 more Ticks North as is the trend on this one and I'll be worrying about a mix up here in Central MI. pretty silly seeing this one slowly trend north vs all the other clipper type storms trend massively south, although this isn't a true clipper like those were.

the clipper-like storms last week were north of guidance. Most have been south, but no discernable bias this winter.
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No big trends on the 00z guidance really.  GEM and GFS would still have a solid 2-4 with the closed surface low tracking along or south of I-94.  The Euro would be more like 1-2 north of I-94.  Could see some ptype issues as far north as M59 if we can't close off the surface low to the south at all.  The Euro just warm advects throughout the event.  Blah.

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