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February 2015 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

Be forewarned, February hath but 28 days, and so I've decided to apply the usual late penalties despite a Super Bowl Sunday start to the month plus any interruptions that the impending storm might bring. Hope this will be okay with all, but the penalties are not all that draconian anyway for the possible gain one could make by taking in a later model run or two (especially the way things have been going).

 

So the contest is to predict temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for these nine sites:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

and the deadline is 06z Sunday Feb 1st, or if my rudimentary math is correct 0100h EST of that same date. Penalties are added at the rate of 1% every 2h late through first 36h and that takes us to 18z of Feb 2nd, after which it's a full 1% per hour for the 82h remaining, taking us to 04z Feb 6th for complete annihilation of any late entries. Basically you want to be sure to enter by late Sunday to avoid a large chop in your score, so maybe make a mental note to submit a forecast on the Saturday evening then enjoy the Super Bowl and what probably only one player here hopes will be a lopsided Seahawks victory (maybe more than one?) ... and if you want a bit of extra fun, predict the score (in advance preferably).

 

I am saying 29-27 Seahawks because lopsided seems out of reach like snow at RIC.

 

(edit after game -- facepalm -- double facepalm -- let me send in the last play next time okay?)

:)

 

 Note added Feb 3 0230h _ Late entries are now running a 25% penalty.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

DCA -2.7

NYC -2.9

BOS -3.0

ORD -1.3

ATL -2.0

IAH -0.6

DEN +1.0

PHX +2.0

SEA +2.5

 

Addendum:  Pulling for the Seahawks...nothing against Boston.  The Red Sox are my baseball team, but never had a real connection to the Pats as I grew up pulling for the Steelers in the days of Bradshaw and company.  However, something tells me that the Patriots are just now getting hot and the Seahawks backed their way in.  So...

 

Patriots 28 Seahawks 24

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

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Posted

Be forewarned, February hath but 28 days, and so I've decided to apply the usual late penalties despite a Super Bowl Sunday start to the month plus any interruptions that the impending storm might bring. Hope this will be okay with all, but the penalties are not all that draconian anyway for the possible gain one could make by taking in a later model run or two (especially the way things have been going).

 

So the contest is to predict temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for these nine sites:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

and the deadline is 06z Sunday Feb 1st, or if my rudimentary math is correct 0100h EST of that same date. Penalties are added at the rate of 1% every 2h late through first 36h and that takes us to 18z of Feb 2nd, after which it's a full 1% per hour for the 82h remaining, taking us to 04z Feb 6th for complete annihilation of any late entries. Basically you want to be sure to enter by late Sunday to avoid a large chop in your score, so maybe make a mental note to submit a forecast on the Saturday evening then enjoy the Super Bowl and what probably only one player here hopes will be a lopsided Seahawks victory (maybe more than one?) ... and if you want a bit of extra fun, predict the score (in advance preferably).

 

I am saying 29-27 Seahawks because lopsided seems out of reach like snow at RIC.

 

But ya never know.

DCA:-3.2

NYC:-3.8

BOS:-3.8

ORD:-3.0

ATL:-3.1

IAH:-2.2

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for February 2015

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Stebo __________________ +2.2_ +1.8_ +0.9___ --2.4_ +2.0_ --0.5______ --3.1_ +0.5_ --1.2

blazess556___ (-2%) _____ +1.8_ +1.5_ +0.6___ --2.1_ +1.7_ --0.4______ --2.6_ +0.7_ --1.3

SD_____________________ +1.5_ +1.0_ +1.0____  0.0_ +1.0_ --0.5______ --1.0_ --2.0_ --1.5

N. of Pike ___ (-3%) ______ +1.0_ +0.5_ --0.5___ --1.0_ +0.5_ +1.2______ +1.0_ +1.2_ --0.4

Tom _______ (-5%) ______ +0.4_ +0.1_ --0.2___ --0.9_ +0.9_ +1.1______ --1.2_ +1.1_ --0.5

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

RodneyS ________________ --0.8_ --2.7_ --3.5___ --1.6_ +0.2_ --2.1______ +3.0_ +2.8_ +1.3

wxdude64 _______________ --0.8_ --2.7_ --3.7___ --1.1_ +0.6_ --1.8______ +2.5_ +3.1_ +1.2

Quixotic.1 _____( -4%) ____ --0.8_ --2.7_ --3.7___ --1.1_ +0.6_ --1.8______ --1.0_ +1.5_ +2.0

Midlo Snow Maker _________--1.1_ --2.5_ --2.7___ --1.1_ --1.5_ +0.4______ +3.5_ +2.3_ +2.7

bkviking ________________ --1.5_ --3.2_ --3.7___ --0.9_ --0.8_ +0.8______ +3.3_ +2.8_ +2.0

Roger Smith _____________ --1.5_ --3.5_ --5.2___ --4.5_ --2.0_ +0.5______ +2.2_ +2.0_ +4.5

 

Consensus ______________ --1.7_ --2.7_ --3.5___ --1.3_ --0.3_ --0.5______ +1.5_ +2.0_ +2.0

 

Damage in Tolland ________ --1.9_ --2.7_ --3.5___ --1.0__ 0.0_ +0.8______ +3.0_ +2.7_ +1.9

ksammut _______________ --2.1_ --3.9_ --4.3___ --2.3_ --0.4_ --2.1______ +0.6_ +0.5_ +3.2

wxallannj _______________ --2.2_ --2.7_ --2.8___ --2.2_ --0.2_ --0.1______ +0.9_ +1.4_ +1.8

Maxim _________________  --2.3_ --2.9_ --3.1___ +0.6_ +1.4_ +2.0______ +4.3_ +4.7_ +3.5

Carvers Gap _____________ --2.7_ --2.9_ --3.0___ --1.3_ --2.0_ --0.6______ +1.0_ +2.0_ +2.5

Donsutherland.1 __________--3.0_ --3.6_ --4.1___ --1.5_ --1.1_ --0.5______ +1.7_ +2.5_ +3.6

Tenman Johnson _________ --3.2_ --3.8_ --3.8___ --3.0_ --3.1_ --2.2

Mallow _________________ --3.3_ --4.3_ --3.9___ --1.8_ --1.5_ --1.9______ +4.4_ +2.5_ +3.8

hudsonvalley21 __ (-5%) __ --3.4_ --2.3_ --3.0___ --1.1_ --1.6_ --1.0______ +1.2_ +2.0_ +2.4

Isotherm _______________ --3.5_ --3.7_ --4.0___ --1.6_ --1.8_ --0.5______ +2.9_ +3.4_ +3.8

mikehobbyst ____________ --3.9_ --5.3_ --5.9___ --1.3_ --0.4_ +1.6______ +2.8_ +4.9_ +3.9

_________________________________________________

 

 

 

Snowfall contest still being updated every 2 or 3 days and has now migrated into this month's thread.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Now after ten days (will edit in days 12 and 14) with projections to day 17 (19, 21) ... and will continue this countdown for a few more days then maybe start a final one on 20th or so.

 

 

_____________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

____ 5d ______ --0.9 _ --6.8 _ --9.2 ___--10.1 _ --2.5 _ --4.5 ___ +4.6 _ +4.9 _ +3.8

 

____10d ______--0.1 _ --5.9 _ -10.0____ --4.9 __ 0.0 _ --0.3 ___+13.0 _ +7.4 _ +6.3

____12d ______--0.5 _ --6.0 _ -10.0____ --5.2 _ --0.4 __ 0.0 ___+12.5 _ +7.6 _ +6.9

____14d ______--2.1 _ --7.4 _ -10.9____ --6.2 _ --1.4 _ +0.1 ___+13.0 _ +7.8 _ +7.1

____15d ______--3.5 _ --8.3 _ -11.6____ --7.2 _ --2.1 _ +0.4 ___+12.0 _ +8.0 _ +6.9

____16d ______--4.8 _ --9.2 _ -12.4____ --7.8 _ --2.6 _ +0.1 ___+10.9 _ +7.9 _ +6.9

____17d ______--5.4 _ --9.6 _ -12.6____ --8.2 _ --3.3 _ --0.7 ___+ 9.9 _ +7.8 _ +7.0

____18d ______--6.0 _ --9.6 _ -12.4____ --9.2 _ --4.1 _ --1.1 ___+ 9.2 _ +7.6 _ +6.8

____19d ______--6.9 _ -10.1 _ -12.4____ -10.3_ --5.4 _ --1.4 ___+ 9.2 _ +7.5 _ +6.7

____20d ______--7.9 _ -10.8 _ -12.8____ -11.0_ --6.1 _ --1.1 ___+ 9.1 _ +7.5 _ +6.5

____21d ______--8.3 _ -11.0 _ -12.8____ -10.8_ --6.0 _ --0.5 ___+ 8.2 _ +7.4 _ +6.4

____22d ______--7.8 _ -10.4 _ -12.2____ -10.9_ --5.7 _ --0.3 ___+ 6.8 _ +7.2 _ +6.2

____23d ______--7.9 _ -10.5 _ -12.3____ -11.6_ --5.7 _ --1.1 ___+ 5.6 _ +7.0 _ +5.9

____24d ______--8.4 _ -10.5 _ -12.8____ -11.7_ --6.1 _ --1.9 ___+ 5.0 _ +6.7 _ +5.7

____25d ______--8.4 _ -11.0 _ -12.6____ -11.7_ --6.4 _ --2.4 ___+ 4.5 _ +6.3 _ +5.6

____26d ______--8.3 _ -10.9 _ -12.7____ -12.1_ --6.6 _ --3.0 ___+ 3.4 _ +6.2 _ +5.6

____27d ______--8.5 _ -11.1 _ -12.7____ -12.6_ --6.8 _ --3.5 ___+ 2.2 _ +6.0 _ +5.5

 

____ 28d _____ --8.7 _--11.4 _ -12.7 ___--13.1 _ --6.8 _ --3.8 ____+1.3 _ +5.9 _ +5.3

 

We are taking a beating this month ... ... by the way, the final anomaly at Vernal UT is +10.8. SLC and Twin Falls ID +9.7 so it's quite an extreme pattern. DEN dropped from +9.1 to +1.3 when the colder air pushed further west. Vernal UT had been +15.8 at that point.

 

(March 1st) -- 1300h -- Final confirmed anomalies are posted at 28d in the countdown above and all scoring tables are now updated. 

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Rjay

Rjay

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Hey, sorry to say you are not just late but out of penalty time altogether so I will just let you know at the end of the month what score that would have had for an on time forecast. (penalty time reached 100% at 04z today).

Haha. Dam EC snowstorms distracted me. See you for the Hurricane contest.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scoring for February 2015

 

 

Note:  With the exception of Rjay the scoring penalties are incorporated to avoid needless second lines of scores that are almost the same as raw scores. You can intuit what your score was before penalty from the percentage. Since I round them off N. of Pike for example has no actual score reductions on those scores. Tom lost one point for IAH. (etc) After discussion, the proposed changes to scoring will not go ahead and these are now the "raw scores" from the original rules. Where anomalies exceed -10 for the cold eastern and Midwest sites, your score is your correct-sign forecast, sans decimal, reduced by percentage of the differential from -10 to the actual anomaly below -10. So BOS and ORD scores are reduced by a little over 20%. NYC by 12%. (e.g. BOS -12.7, 2.7 is 21% of 12.7)

...

...

FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS___cla ____ORD_ATL_IAH____exp _____ TOTAL

 

Tenman Johnson __________32 _ 33 _ 30 ____95 ____ 23 _ 44_ 68 ____135 _____ 230

Mallow __________________33 _ 38 _ 31 ___102 ____ 14 _ 15 _ 62 ____ 91 _____ 193

ksammut ________________ 21 _ 34 _ 34 ___ 89 ____ 18 _ 04 _ 66 ____ 88 _____ 177

Isotherm ________________ 35 _ 32 _ 31 ___ 98 ____ 12 _ 18 _ 34 ____ 64 _____ 162

Roger Smith ______________15 _ 31 _ 41 ___ 87 ____ 34 _ 22 _ 14 ____ 70 _____ 157

Donsutherland.1 __________ 30 _ 32 _ 32 ___ 94 _____11 _ 11 _ 34 ____ 56 _____ 150

mikehobbyst _____________ 43 _ 46 _46 ___135 ____ 10 _ 04 _ 00 ____ 14 _____ 149

Carvers Gap ______________27 _ 25 _ 24 ___ 76 _____10 _ 22 _ 36 ____ 68 _____ 144

hudsonvalley21 __ (-5%) ___ 32 _ 19 _ 23 ___ 74 ____ 08 _ 15 _ 42 ____ 65 _____ 139

RodneyS ________________ 08 _ 24 _ 28 ___ 60 _____12 _ 00 _ 66 ____ 78 _____ 138

wxdude64 _______________ 08 _ 24 _ 29 ___ 61 ____ 08 _ 00 _ 60 ____ 68 _____ 129

Quixotic.1 _____( -4%) ____ 08 _ 23 _ 28 ___ 59 ____ 08 _ 00 _ 58 _____66 _____ 125

..

Consensus _______________ 17 _ 24 _ 28 ___ 69 ____ 10 _ 03 _ 34 ____ 47 _____ 116

.. 

wxallannj ________________ 22 _ 24 _ 22 ___ 68 ____ 17 _ 02 _ 26 ____ 45 _____ 113

bkviking _________________ 15 _ 28 _ 29 ___ 72 ____ 07 _ 08 _ 08 ____ 23 ______ 95

Midlo Snow Maker _________ 11 _ 22 _ 21 ___ 54 ____ 08 _ 15 _ 16 ____ 39 ______ 93

Damage in Tolland _________19 _ 24 _ 28 ___ 71 ____ 08 _ 00 _ 08 ____ 16 ______ 87

Maxim ___________________23 _ 25 _ 24 ___ 72 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ____ 00 ______ 72

Stebo ___________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ____ 18 _ 00 _ 34 ____ 52 ______ 52

blazess556___ (-2%) _______00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ____ 16 _ 00 _ 31 ____ 47 ______ 47

SD______________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 34 ____ 34 ______ 34

 

Normal __________________ 00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 00 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 24 ____ 24 ______ 24

 

rjay ____ (very late) _______ 08 _ 31 _ 28 ___ 67 ____ 11 _ 00 _ 08 _____19 _ 86

________ (-80%) _________ 02 _ 06 _ 06 ___ 14 ____ 02 _ 00 _ 02 ____ 04 ______ 18

 N. of Pike ___ (-3%) ______ 00 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 04 ____ 08 _ 00 _ 00 _____08 ______ 12

Tom _______ (-5%) _______00 _ 00 _ 02 ___ 02 ____ 00 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 02 ______ 04

 

 

Provisional scoring for western contest

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTALS ___________ all nine locations

 

mikehobbyst ____________ 70 _ 89 _ 75 _____ 234 _______________ 383

Donsutherland.1 __________92 _ 41 _ 69 _____ 202 _______________ 352

Isotherm _______________ 68 _ 59 _ 73 _____ 200 _______________ 362

Roger Smith _____________82 _ 31 _ 87 _____ 200 _______________ 357

Maxim _________________ 40 _ 85 _ 67 _____ 192 _______________ 264

Carvers Gap _____________ 94_ 31 _ 47 _____ 172 _______________ 316

hudsonvalley21 __ (-5%) __ 93 _ 29 _ 43 _____ 165 _______________ 304

 

Consensus ______________ 96 _ 31 _ 37 _____ 164 _______________ 280

 

Mallow _________________ 38 _ 41 _ 73 _____ 152 _______________ 345

 

ksammut _______________ 86 _ 05 _ 61 _____ 152 _______________ 329

wxdude64 ______________ 76 _ 53 _ 21 _____ 150 _______________ 279

Damage in Tolland ________66 _ 45 _ 35 _____ 146 _______________ 233

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 56 _ 37 _ 51 _____ 144 _______________ 237

bkviking ________________ 60 _ 47 _ 37 _____ 144 _______________ 239

wxallannj _______________ 92 _ 19 _ 33 _____ 144 _______________ 257

RodneyS ________________66 _ 47 _ 23 _____ 136 _______________ 274

Quixotic.1 _____( -4%) ____52 _ 20 _ 35 _____ 107 _______________ 232

N. of Pike ___ (-3%) ______91 _ 15 _ 00 _____ 106 _______________ 118

 

Normal _________________74 _ 00 _ 00 ______ 74 ________________ 98

 

Tom _______ (-5%) ______48 _ 12 _ 00 ______ 60 ________________ 64

SD_____________________54 _ 00 _ 00 ______ 54 ________________ 88

blazess556___ (-2%) _____ 22 _ 07 _ 00 ______ 29 ________________ 76

Rjay _____ (v late) _______58 _ 41 _ 19 _ 118

__________ (-80%) ______12 _ 08 _ 04 ______ 24 ________________ 42

Stebo __________________12 _ 05 _ 00 ______ 17 ________________ 69

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