RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Quick question, does anyone know when the heavier snow is supposed to start. I'm driving back to the Framingham area around 6pm tomorrow from Boston? You'll be ok still at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's not about the NAM, its the fact every model other than the euro has gone east since 12z euro ran.yea exactly why I said the Euro may bump east a bit but c'mon man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 don't you remember 2013?Nam actually had a good run t minus 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I tried to fight the good fight but weenies keep believing in the worst models. I'm not wavering. Euro is no longer infallible. I'm trying to find the stall whiff from last March. The 0z NAM is by no means alone. The normally steroidal RGEM is very similar. This is from 18z. Mods why am I getting an error 301 with 100mb of free space on the darned attachments? http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg ^^^ that is not very different than the 0z NAM and is marked departure from earlier RGEM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You'll be ok still at 6pm. Excellent! Thanks for the quick response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I honestly think Euro will tick east, the rest of the guidance will tick west again and we will have our final solution. I hope I'm right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hires nam is 20+ all of eastern mass/RI east of ORH... Spot 30's in the corridor we all mentioned south of BOS to Canal just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam actually had a good run t minus 6the euro was great for everyone... not sure why people are so against it verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nam actually had a good run t minus 6 So tomorrow 12z? I have a hard time believing the the nam giving most of us 2 feet while NYC under a foot. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yea exactly why I said the Euro may bump east a bit but c'mon man The Euro is probably sore from consistent dry humping. For good reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's not about the NAM, its the fact every model other than the euro has gone east since 12z euro ran.Look at the h5 ridge out west on the GFS. Despite the change in the surface depiction out east, the ridge has gotten sharper each run since 6z...and at 18z it's still not quite as sharp as the Euro was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 While the NAM doesn't appear to have any dry slots it still looks like there are less than ideal RH values we would be dealing with. Take a look at both H7 and H85 and the RH fields. Not like seeing less than 90% RH values at H7 and especially below H85. Seems like some drier air gets en-trained over the area from the NE on the NAM...so while the NAM might be spitting out some insane totals or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks exactly like the NAM... HMMMMMMMMMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks exactly like the NAM... HMMMMMMMMMM God I hope it doesn't play out like that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yea exactly why I said the Euro may bump east a bit but c'mon man It's not really about a bump east...it's about a delayed initiation and capture so the track is more S to N up along 70 vs coming at the BM from the west/sw. That has big implications for a lot of reasons I95 east and from mid cape west. It's moot anyway, it's all opinion and we don't change the weather with our opinions. I just don't think the Euro is as infallible as it once was but that is just IMO and I may be using a big bust at the end of last winter as a foundation point that is an error. I just know the RGEM IS ALWAYS the model that makes me grimace with these storms as the r/s line goes over my head first with it...it's always the most jacked, the furthest NW often even more on the hook than the EUro and it's just not this time and that's a red flag to me absent other models supporting the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 God I hope it doesn't play out like that lol 20-24" tickling your fanny? I would wrap that up in a heartbeat. I'd also take 16-20" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 For you guys it makes no real big difference (outside of the Cape perhaps), and for down in NYC it would still be a somewhat decent storm, but man, for me back here...the Euro has me at over a foot and the NAM has me at almost zero...something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That shows 30-36 here but I'm not getting that apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looking at that RPM, can anyone guess where the ML forcing is when the storm stalls/slows down before heading east? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ponder this friends, we will have a storm that lasts through 2 sleep cycles for those of us sane enough to not go allnighter.I haven't slept since the Epic Euro run the other night.Had to get up to wiz,checked the Euro and it's been insane since. Big deal for me as a facility manager. As an aside our EM cadre was told by homeland security to expect up to 40 inch amounts in ECT. Not buying that but that text got the blood flowing more than Cialis ever could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks exactly like the NAM... HMMMMMMMMMM lol...the deadly NAM/RPM combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The rpm will continue to change every 3 hours. Kind of pointless to put much stock in it outside of 12-24 from what the mets say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the euro was great for everyone... not sure why people are so against it verifying Apparently you haven't spent enough time in this subforum then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think that central MA deform has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That shows 30-36 here but I'm not getting that apparently You said 36-48" in you're last post. Which you aren't getting- still. Get your facts straight and stop taking everything personally. 30-36" somewhere? Maybe. But if favors ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 lol...the deadly NAM/RPM combo. Add the RGEM into the list east of Euro, also GFS. But hey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The rpm will continue to change every 3 hours. Kind of pointless to put much stock in it outside of 12-24 from what the mets say. The point is it has the deform in the exact spot that the NAM and RGEM do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 For you guys it makes no real big difference (outside of the Cape perhaps), and for down in NYC it would still be a somewhat decent storm, but man, for me back here...the Euro has me at over a foot and the NAM has me at almost zero...something has to give. Just realize particularly when you read something from me I'm speaking of how it pertains to me. ALL models are pinching off the warmth for the most part...I think that continues as the low gets further east before it turns north in a capture. The NAM being the NAM it can never be taken verbatim, the bigger concern to me would be the 18z RGEM which everyone wants to ignore. That model is always the most amped, and it just isn't this time (in terms of the left inside hook). If it suddenly hops back that way in the next 30 minutes than the NAM is a doormat and I'm wrong...but it doesn't matter for 90% anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the euro was great for everyone... not sure why people are so against it verifyingI am kind of surprised at some of our more astute posters straying from their honed mantra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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