Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The RGEM was too far east even initially-good snow really was never supposed to make it past Islip and it's now entering NYC and still going. To me the storm still looks very potent aloft and should at least slow significantly for a while. I'm becoming more cautiously optimistic that NYC shares in some of the high totals, as does W CT/MA. Maybe even NE NJ but the band's progress is really slowing now. This is a theme I've been beating since Saturday... RGEM has an intense piece of vorticity far northeast of any other model, approximately near the Cape. At times in the past 2 days, this has resulted in a dual-low system (and GGEM did this too on Saturday). And I think it's now contributing to this further and faster northeast scoot. May be totally wrong, but don't have access to Euro H5 to get a better sense of the responsible mechanics. The other mechanism that I keep beating: it's not just an eastward tick of a single SLP placement, I think it's also a northeast-stretch / dual-low-ish structure that is robbing some of the feed that would otherwise get pivoted west. This actually may be the biggest fly in the ointment that the RGEM presents to the historic potential... and it's not on the EURO. Big difference. Something to watch for. rgem_precip_mslp_neng_4.png You can see that eastern lobe clear as day on the water vapor, I have no doubt there's at least a kink under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You can see that eastern lobe clear as day on the water vapor, I have no doubt there's at least a kink under it. Why would NWS still be sticking to their guns on totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You can see that eastern lobe clear as day on the water vapor, I have no doubt there's at least a kink under it. Clear on water vapor, but so far doesn't seem to have translated to an elongated or dual surface low: Biggest Euro vs. RGEM difference in this regard occurs between 6z-9z when RGEM really develops a 2nd low way out, like 67W, whereas Euro collapses everything into one consolidated low. So as you and others have said, the evolution now to 4am will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Why would NWS still be sticking to their guns on totals? Lack of any clear and convincing reason to change for another few hours. You can see wxniss found a good point there....The RGEM spins that up, and in the next 3-5 hours elongates the low NE from the benchmark. It's at that moment the dynamics begin to whither a bit aside of some deformation banding. The GFS and NAM don't do this, nor does the 0z UKMET. If we see the radar go to dogsh* from SW to NE the further west and south you guy starting about 1-2am aside of some bands....we'll know there's a potential issue. It should be clear as day in the next 1-2.5 hours. We'd see a pretty marked decrease in intensity of even the banded snows off the NJ coast up through LI and into C W MA. GFS/RGEM are not terribly dissimilar the GFS just doesn't bite on the elongated low. NAM is on it's own right now. Everything is wrapping up. Very marked increase in winds, very notable spin now to the radar. Maybe a few gravity waves south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah by 9z, the 0zRGEM has a 984mb 2nd low way out at 67W. Euro has nothing like that. Spoils the party (the RGEM depiction), and I'm hoping it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah....Euro is not going to fail 3-6 hours out. It will tell us the answer in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Clear on water vapor, but so far doesn't seem to have translated to an elongated or dual surface low: pres.ne-large_12am.png Biggest Euro vs. RGEM difference in this regard occurs between 6z-9z when RGEM really develops a 2nd low way out, like 67W, whereas Euro collapses everything into one consolidated low. So as you and others have said, the evolution now to 4am will be critical. GFS hints at it, but then collapses everything back again. UKMET hints at it, collapses back too on the western edge. NAM never really bites at all. Looking at the WV though...I do think wxniss we'll see a pulse down center to west for at least a few hours, as we wait for the rest of the energy to dive and for it all to stack. We'll see what the radar shows in central/wMA, CT, LI and sw in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Because both low positions are too far east for a blizzard in NYC. No they're not. The classic track for a NYC snow event is just west of the B/M and 75 miles SE of Montauk. The problem is what it usually is for redeveloper Miller B's there-a too slow evolution aloft and consolidation of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS hints at it, but then collapses everything back again. UKMET hints at it, collapses back too on the western edge. NAM never really bites at all. Looking at the WV though...I do think wxniss we'll see a pulse down center to west for at least a few hours, as we wait for the rest of the energy to dive and for it all to stack. We'll see what the radar shows in central/wMA, CT, LI and sw in the next hour. Nowcasting at its best, with relatively big stakes on the line. Over next 2 hours, will be watching SLP, pressure fall rates, strength of the western CT / Long Island band and backfill of echos into NYC/NJ. And of course let's hope Euro can keep some respectable continuity right at showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nowcasting at it's best, with relatively big stakes on the line. Over next 2 hours, will be watching SLP, pressure fall rates, strength of the western CT / Long Island band and backfill of echos into NYC/NJ. And of course let's hope Euro can keep some respectable continuity right at showtime. This sticks out to me http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008 I do think this lends some credibility to at least a temporarily extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 BTW 12z Euro had the same feature along the boundary...it just collapsed hardest and fastest to a position under ack. That can should flip hard east or SE S in the next few hours if those west tucks are valid. If we see it staying E or ENE or NE....we very clearly know the low is staying further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This sticks out to me http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44008 I do think this lends some credibility to at least a temporarily extension. 990.5mb... pretty close to Euro and RGEM probably. Great point about buoys, too bad this data is so sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 BTW 12z Euro had the same feature along the boundary...it just collapsed hardest and fastest to a position under ack. That can should flip hard east or SE S in the next few hours if those west tucks are valid. If we see it staying E or ENE or NE....we very clearly know the low is staying further east. Exactly, between 6z-9z is the difference. Euro quickly consolidates it into the main low near the benchmark, RGEM keeps the spoiler going through at least 12z. Wish we had more rich pressure data. But as you said, we should see how this translates into the moisture feeding in over the next few hours. Taking a quick break for pictures... will be back for Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is ACK about to get dry-slotted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ACK showing 980 mb reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro caves quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro caves east...still much more impressive with the precip extent than the RGEM/GFS, but it def caved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It is definitely east by a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 how far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro caves east...still much more impressive with the precip extent than the RGEM/GFS, but it def caved east. I will stand by what I said, against itself this is one of the poorest performances I can remember for the Euro. Luckily semi-predictable and I do think we're beginning to document a bias, JMHO. If history is a guide the Euro is not done catching up. Wxniss I meant to post this on this thread...but the HRRR (not a fan) starts to come apart soon too. This was the 3z total snow output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Tug of war between the west and east stretch out lows, east low wins and a big jump east between 6z-12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice hit for E NH, E MA, and ME though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro caves to the GFS, not as dry, but a massive cave. Biggest bust I've ever seen from it. Unthinkable a few years ago that the euro would do that. Upton cut totals, they had no choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Nice hit for E NH, E MA, and ME though. Yeah, That is a very good hit, Do you have qpf numbers brian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Upton will have to cut total again I think...those are still probably too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How long does the snow continue on the euro though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Does it stall still just further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 how does the stall look on the euro? Is it less progressive than the RGEM and further southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Details please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sorry to those to the west.....wouldn't want to be in their forums right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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