TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I will say that NWP is pretty terrible at choosing surface low locations. I would focus more on upper level features (which admittedly is more difficult since we have so much real time MSLP data). Wouldn't pick a spot far from there looking at WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I believe euro will end up being largely right. Nj not far from getting into the action. To say this is a terrible euro performance to me is ludicrous. It trended appropriately. But unlike the others didn't bounce around with huge swing That's why it's the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's going to be impossible for models, especially the models with not as coarse of a resolution to accurately or consistently depict the exact SLP track or even placement. This is a very compact system with very deep pressure and so many tight pressure contours packed together. Seeing how the wobbles, whether they are slight ticks west or slight ticks east probably don't mean much at all. We're really just going to have to follow mesoanalysis and even the RAP might not 100% accurately depict exact placement. The point is, the slight variations we are seeing really don't mean much for many in this forum, but probably more for extreme western CT back towards NYC. However, the precipitation should is rather expansive and will continue to be expansive into the overnight hours. Don't forget, this system is still in the beginning stages of maturation and all the processes are coming together for further strengthening and expansion of the precip shield. frontogenesis at all levels indicate we will continue seeing numerous heavy bands develop, perhaps even convective bands, over the next several hours and even as far west as NYC, which we are currently seeing happen. One thing I am a little concerned with, however, is having too many heavier bands isn't always great thing b/c there will be subsidence zones and that is something the GFS sort of hints at becoming the case later on as seen by negative VV values...so this is something to certainly watch. While one area is getting pounded, another is getting shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much. So if I'm looking at everything correctly, a trend going further east would be better for the Cape and BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much. Your right on the PHL/NJ side without a doubt. Just want to clarify.. I was specifically talking about NYC and the surrounding areas near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So if I'm looking at everything correctly, a trend going further east would be better for the Cape and BOS? I don't think it makes a ton of difference in E MA to be honest...it might reduce the chance of mixing with rain on the outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So if I'm looking at everything correctly, a trend going further east would be better for the Cape and BOS? Its kind of all the same for that area. The euro being too far west ultimately affects far western portions of the area. I mean some places were expece 24-36, and anything close to that is in jeopardy at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's way wrong with the precip near NYC. Look at how light it is. There is a deform band on the city's doorstep as we speak. We will see, the band isn't making tremendous landward progress off ACY...it still is further north, and the RGEM very clearly leaves it a little west of where it is now for several hours overnight. I mean it's clearly there on the model, but it also lifts the stuff aligned WNW to ESE towards SNE. Hey maybe in 90 minutes I'll be totally wrong.... I believe euro will end up being largely right. Nj not far from getting into the action. To say this is a terrible euro performance to me is ludicrous. It trended appropriately. But unlike the others didn't bounce around with huge swings. I said it would be one of the poorer euro performances. I'll stand by that in general, I think it'll continue shuffling, but i'm hoping this RGEM quick exit is very much an error. That'd su(k tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How is this euro too far west or grievously wrong? I just did a little comparison. The Red L is the location of our storm at 6z on the 12z euro run. There Blue L is the actual current 4z location of the storm. How the hell is the euro wrong yet? 12z is when NYC gets the goods on the 12z euro, and the current storm track isn't far off! Because both low positions are too far east for a blizzard in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't think it makes a ton of difference in E MA to be honest...it might reduce the chance of mixing with rain on the outer Cape. Will - my primary concern is early morning through tomorrow. The historic nature of this event came from the frosting on the top during the day and into the evening. If the RGEM is right that's not happening (and UKMET). GFS and NAM both made significant leaps east from their previous runs. We shall see, going back out to enjoy. Look away from the UKMET.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Your right on the PHL/NJ side without a doubt. Just want to clarify.. I was specifically talking about NYC and the surrounding areas near it. I think the error affects NYC too in the end. They will end up getting what N NJ was going to get. LI still looks good to me for getting big totals (>16")...I still think NYC will get a good storm...just not those 18"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Last call. Still somewhat unsure about the exact placement and intensity of a mesoscale band that will probably drop some 30"+ amounts, but fairly high confidence in the highest amounts from TOL-ORH-BOS with around two feet of snow there. A nail-biter for the western fringe, but I was never buying into the hefty amounts west and southwest of Danbury: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 SE mass and the cape has never been in question, Its the western zones that are in play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We will see, the band isn't making tremendous landward progress off ACY...it still is further north, and the RGEM very clearly leaves it a little west of where it is now for several hours overnight. I mean it's clearly there on the model, but it also lifts the stuff aligned WNW to ESE towards SNE. Hey maybe in 90 minutes I'll be totally wrong.... I said it would be one of the poorer euro performances. I'll stand by that in general, I think it'll continue shuffling, but i'm hoping this RGEM quick exit is very much an error. That'd su(k tomorrow. Its gonna be tight for NYC, my hunch now is it will make it and stall just west of them the stuff off NJ is slowing its west progress which likely means we'll see the west progress slow up north within 1-2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't think it makes a ton of difference in E MA to be honest...it might reduce the chance of mixing with rain on the outer Cape. Do you think it shifts the western secondary max eastward, or presents more like the rgem/gfs without a secondary max to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro had steady snow well back into all of NJ by now...all the way to PHL. It's going to be too far west...there is zero doubt in my mind. The question is by how much. Exactly. I doubt West Milford etc is going to lay down another .25 or so in the next 75 minutes. Tonight is not in doubt, people forget at one time we had some form of snow going into Wednesday morning. RGEM it's mainly over by lunch. Really want that to be wrong. If the Euro leaps ENE in the eventual stall the super historic totals are gone. Who cares, it's a great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Will - my primary concern is early morning through tomorrow. The historic nature of this event came from the frosting on the top during the day and into the evening. If the RGEM is right that's not happening (and UKMET). GFS and NAM both made significant leaps east from their previous runs. We shall see, going back out to enjoy. Look away from the UKMET.... The stall aspect is a tough forecast. New 03z RAP stalls it now more like the NAM vs the more progressive solutions. I'm not quite sure what to make of the differing model solutions on the stall aspect for tomorrow afternoon. My gut says you are staying in good snow most of the tomorrow and into the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Its gonna be tight for NYC, my hunch now is it will make it and stall just west of them the stuff off NJ is slowing its west progress which likely means we'll see the west progress slow up north within 1-2 hours. Exactly. I think you absolutely found the Achilles heal in that 12z Euro run, that would obviously have slowed the progress N & E of everything and changed all sorts of things. Curious for it to have that type of issue with the superior schemes it uses for init. My big concern now is not losing the positioning during the day that allowed for a constant feed of moisture into eastern ma Meanwhile Kevin is getting tatoo'd in Tolland by that persistent band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The stall aspect is a tough forecast. New 03z RAP stalls it now more like the NAM vs the more progressive solutions. I'm not quite sure what to make of the differing model solutions on the stall aspect for tomorrow afternoon. My gut says you are staying in good snow most of the tomorrow and into the evening. Thanks. Whatever the RGEM is doing - it happens in the next 2-3 hours. It is tucking everything nicely and I believe as the radar and WV show right now through about 7-8z...and then it just loses it and becomes progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Exactly. I think you absolutely found the Achilles heal in that 12z Euro run, that would obviously have slowed the progress N & E of everything and changed all sorts of things. Curious for it to have that type of issue with the superior schemes it uses for init. My big concern now is not losing the positioning during the day that allowed for a constant feed of moisture into eastern ma Meanwhile Kevin is getting tatoo'd in Tolland by that persistent band. You know I live just SE of him. Flakes are just being demolished though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We'll know what the deal is in the next six hours. plus a new euro at 1am. but better off than anything just watching radar and sat at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You know I live just SE of him. Flakes are just being demolished though How is your snow rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 11:40 2.5" 16.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How is your snow rate?Good...never been great at eyeballing it, but like I said the flakes are really being pulverized by the wind, which is starting to howl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thanks. Whatever the RGEM is doing - it happens in the next 2-3 hours. It is tucking everything nicely and I believe as the radar and WV show right now through about 7-8z...and then it just loses it and becomes progressive. Yeah the radar leads me to believe that this is tucking a bit more than the RGEM...but we'll find out soon enough. The precip the RGEM was spitting out through 06z and 09z just doesn't look far enough west with the good stuff based on the radar...just like the Euro looked wrong the other direction. It's going to be a fun system to track either way. At least for most of the people in this forum, the differences are more trivial than anything else. Maybe its 18" instead of 25"...still a massive storm. For those on the edges, it's a Heart Attack Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is a theme I've been beating since Saturday... RGEM has an intense piece of vorticity far northeast of any other model, approximately near the Cape. At times in the past 2 days, this has resulted in a dual-low system (and GGEM did this too on Saturday). And I think it's now contributing to this further and faster northeast scoot. May be totally wrong, but don't have access to Euro H5 to get a better sense of the responsible mechanics. The other mechanism that I keep beating: it's not just an eastward tick of a single SLP placement, I think it's also a northeast-stretch / dual-low-ish structure that is robbing some of the feed that would otherwise get pivoted west. This actually may be the biggest fly in the ointment that the RGEM presents to the historic potential... and it's not on the EURO. Big difference. Something to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Thanks. Whatever the RGEM is doing - it happens in the next 2-3 hours. It is tucking everything nicely and I believe as the radar and WV show right now through about 7-8z...and then it just loses it and becomes progressive. The RGEM was too far east even initially-good snow really was never supposed to make it past Islip and it's now entering NYC and still going. To me the storm still looks very potent aloft and should at least slow significantly for a while. I'm becoming more cautiously optimistic that NYC shares in some of the high totals, as does W CT/MA. Maybe even NE NJ but the band's progress is really slowing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 cloud tops near nj cooling rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 cloud tops near nj cooling rapidly Just getting going. I can't imagine BOX is risking busting badly in their 11pm update for W MA. Obviously riding the stall into the sunset: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...A CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE AREA MAINLY TONIGHT LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... MAZ002>004-008>011-026-271215- /O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150128T0600Z/ WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER 1109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE CITES AND TOWNS OF CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD AND AYER. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 18 TO 24 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. * TIMING...WHILE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN WHITE-OUT/ BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE-THREATENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. THE HEIGHT OF THE WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED! THIS IS A SERIOUS LIFE- THREATENING STORM! && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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