JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The radar is pretty impressive..GFS is def too far east to me. Prob even the RGEM. But I also think the Euro is too far west. KTOL jp it is then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Does it stall though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The radar is pretty impressive..GFS is def too far east to me. Prob even the RGEM. But I also think the Euro is too far west. I think a compromise is certainly reasonable at this juncture. Very tough forecast for the western edge...but it always is with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I don't see how an H7 track like the one suggested is giving nyc 24-36". It really needed to stall over Atlantic City to do that. H7 south of Montauk isn't going to clobber NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The radar is pretty impressive..GFS is def too far east to me. Prob even the RGEM. But I also think the Euro is too far west. I think that's the way you have to play it right now. It is the Euro, which gives you some pause, but if this was any other model that far west and juiced it would be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is reminding me of 1/26/11 when the model mayhem was so severe I had no idea what was going to happen. Meanwhile, it's snowing heavily here and the radar looks pretty great. Unless the western edge of the radar is about to dry up, it seems to me that the GFS and RGEM have almost busted already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 To support the non-panicky dialogue (despite the fact that I am a spotlight staring, radar obsessing, frightened weenie), this is the update from BOX at 9:30: 930 PM UPDATE...WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINEDCOMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWALLIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTHTO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVELCIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT ISTHIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERAND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think that's the way you have to play it right now. It is the Euro, which gives you some pause, but if this was any other model that far west and juiced it would be tossed. This will go down as one of the Euro's poorer performances. Ultimately what NCEP kept noting on it being too slow vs the other models continued to bite its' forecasts. I'm hoping the CMC products are missing something and are kicking the low NE too fast in the morning. NAM and GFS are very nice. Looking at the WV and analysis, at least through it's first 6-12 hours I really like the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We are absolutely getting pasted here right now. I'm worried that within the next few hours the power's gonna go out. We're seeing gusts easily over 40mph. I'm jealous of those seeing snow of a lighter consistency as this stuff is backbreaking to move. Best of luck to everyone keeping their lights on tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 To support the non-panicky dialogue (despite the fact that I am a spotlight staring, radar obsessing, frightened weenie), this is the update from BOX at 9:30: 930 PM UPDATE... WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG. That's exactly why the GFS is too far east IMO (the current 0z run)...with what is bolded that all should allow for a further west track than what the GFS has now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM looks too far east already to me. Yeah, it is too far east. So is the GFS. I mean the GFS is laughable. NAM precip shield looks off to me too. It had nothing heavy near me until 6z, it's 4z and my vis is down to like 100 yds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This will go down as one of the Euro's poorer performances. Ultimately what NCEP kept noting on it being too slow vs the other models continued to bite its' forecasts. I'm hoping the CMC products are missing something and are kicking the low NE too fast in the morning. NAM and GFS are very nice. Looking at the WV and analysis, at least through it's first 6-12 hours I really like the 0z GFS. Dood...your gonna get pounded. The later capture is perfect for you....and this will capture/stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This will go down as one of the Euro's poorer performances. Ultimately what NCEP kept noting on it being too slow vs the other models continued to bite its' forecasts. I'm hoping the CMC products are missing something and are kicking the low NE too fast in the morning. NAM and GFS are very nice. Looking at the WV and analysis, at least through it's first 6-12 hours I really like the 0z GFS. Curious to see what HPC does with the next update. Probably need to start thinking about sharpening the western edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, it is too far east. So is the GFS. I mean the GFS is laughable. NAM precip shield looks off to me too. It had nothing heavy near me until 6z, it's 4z and my vis is down to like 100 yds lol. The Euro was also too far west. As usual, the blend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Hard to follow. One person says it's going east, the next says it's going north. I think it's time for bed Your fine, Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Your fine, RelaxYep, heading there now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is not far off with it's low placement right now FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS big time east shift You are going to see some awesome conditions no matter what happens. Good on you for making a road trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sbos, how is this grievously wrong? It may have slightly underdone the strength of the one band over western LI but the edge of where it'd be is kind of well defined. It's also picking up on the expanding area of moisture I think every well..coming up from the south. What am I missing that you are so clearly seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Had to repost this from somewhere else, too awesome http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-71.42,38.72,2494 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So far have like 3-5" can't tell, but haven't really had heavy snow. The snow flakes seem very small. Hoping we can get a convective band tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How is this euro too far west or grievously wrong? I just did a little comparison. The Red L is the location of our storm at 6z on the 12z euro run. There Blue L is the actual current 4z location of the storm. How the hell is the euro wrong yet? 12z is when NYC gets the goods on the 12z euro, and the current storm track isn't far off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Had to repost this from somewhere else, too awesome http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-71.42,38.72,2494 Very cool. There is a hole in the sky. Someone should look into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Very cool. There is a hole in the sky. Someone should look into that. It's something to do with blue and red L's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Sbos, how is this grievously wrong? It may have slightly underdone the strength of the one band over western LI but the edge of where it'd be is kind of well defined. It's also picking up on the expanding area of moisture I think every well..coming up from the south. What am I missing that you are so clearly seeing? It's way wrong with the precip near NYC. Look at how light it is. There is a deform band on the city's doorstep as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I believe euro will end up being largely right. Nj not far from getting into the action. To say this is a terrible euro performance to me is ludicrous. It trended appropriately. But unlike the others didn't bounce around with huge swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I believe euro will end up being largely right. Nj not far from getting into the action. To say this is a terrible euro performance to me is ludicrous. It trended appropriately. But unlike the others didn't bounce around with huge swings. Agree. But it has been ticking, just ticking, east the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I believe euro will end up being largely right. Nj not far from getting into the action. To say this is a terrible euro performance to me is ludicrous. It trended appropriately. But unlike the others didn't bounce around with huge swings. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=hfd Heavy snow backing into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 How is this euro too far west or grievously wrong? I just did a little comparison. The Red L is the location of our storm at 6z on the 12z euro run. There Blue L is the actual current 4z location of the storm. How the hell is the euro wrong yet? 12z is when NYC gets the goods on the 12z euro, and the current storm track isn't far off! I will say that NWP is pretty terrible at choosing surface low locations. I would focus more on upper level features (which admittedly is more difficult since we have so much real time MSLP data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 None of these latest model runs have any practical meaning. Any preparations are already made, or not made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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