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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

 

00z 4 km NAM is similar, shade west of the RGEM. Really happy to be an eastern WFO for this one.

 

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I think the euro is going to cave harder than we think tonight.

 

Down in NYC the Euro may still end up more correct than the GFS or RGEM, the RGEM is verifying too far east right now down there, we have mod-heavy snow in portions of west-central LI it is not seeing or has 50 miles further east.  The 12Z Euro will probably end up being off 30 miles on its west edge but because its impacting 20 million people, everybody is going to notice it, if it was over AVP or ABE hardly anybody would.

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RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side.

 

But we got a long ways to go.

 

 

RGEM not favoring western areas from this point forward. I will say judging by radar it looks too far east, but probably not the scenario NYC wanted to see.

 

 

RGEM looks too far east already to me.

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This thing is still east of the Delmarva and it's getting written off. All I'm saying. It's heading due north right now. Not northeast.

I'm only posting what the GFS is showing. I'm not saying I buy it or the RGEM. I can't imagine the Euro busting that badly in 1 run at T minus 0. I'm enjoying the model mayhem...it keeps met jobs.

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Looking at radar, I can't buy the RGEM or GFS.

I'd probably go 8-14 for NYC right now. Still an awesome storm, but a big bust from earlier calls. 

 

This is what we did for CT, I think some of the far northwestern areas might be closer to 8 than 12 but to make a third zone on the map is a PITA so we just left it plus Norfolk always seems to get stupid totals.

 

10952538_553217851448039_1346888880_o.jp

 

 

And oh yeah, it's absolutely nuking heavy snow right now. Easily 2"+ per hour.

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