dryslot Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 lol...the model is so horrible. Nice hit here, but does it even matter? Looks like we are down to one and one only unless the RGEM comes back towards the Euro at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What am I missing on the NAM being horrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I mean it's a region wide blizzard. NYC is on the fence, LI gets crushed, CT, MA, RI, Boston, PVD, Portsmouth. The SW edge is a toss up...but everywhere else it's stay the course...feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 subsidence setting up between 128 and 495?No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What am I missing on the NAM being horrible? It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez... It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What am I missing on the NAM being horrible? 100 miles within 12 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I mean it's a region wide blizzard. NYC is on the fence, LI gets crushed, CT, MA, RI, Boston, PVD, Portsmouth. The SW edge is a toss up...but everywhere else it's stay the course...feet of snow. Horrible run-to-run consistency. Every run crushes CT/S NH/MA/RI, but those on the edge are getting flip flopped between 2ft and 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez... It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology ) I was joking when I said Newark may see 8 inches and JFK 20 but it may be close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Horrible run-to-run consistency. Every run crushes CT/S NH/MA/RI, but those on the edge are getting flip flopped between 2ft and 6-10". NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I was joking when I said Newark may see 8 inches and JFK 20 but it may be close to that. I'd laugh so much if this is the one storm to give southern Nassau 2 feet but Central Park half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez... It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology ) see below 100 miles within 12 hours? Yes but that's a given. It's not like it fit anywhere into the later capture ideas that are playing out for 2 days. I mean it was instantly tossed. This run is fine aside of the fact it is likely too slow to exit the low (IE the error/bias may still exist and this could still displace ENE at h 12 and h18 at which point it gets away from the best mechanism to make this a top 2 or 3 aka the RGEM etc. Probably not because it seems like once the lows actually bomb out models are okay. But I was speaking specifically of what it showed which was the blizzard everyone was anticipating. NYC folks shouldn't be jumping off anything yet....best snows may be right on that edge but holy crap it's a tight w to e near the city and if any shifts were to continue ...I think the chance the 12z Euro scored a coup are about zero though, it appears it just didn't see some of the pieces somehow that helped get everything a bit further NE before the turn. I mean...we're talking maybe 20 or 40 miles SW to NE....we're asking a lot to expect in this dynamic a situation any model will nail it. Some of the issue may be that the band about to rotate into NYC is super intense...and as someone was just joking where it stops - the people to the left of it will be swinging from the rafters in the AM and probably end up even below the conservative forecasts while people just to the east get what was forecast or even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NYC already has up to 6" from earlier today, so another 12" would bring some to 18" by itself, and that's doable with 12-1 ratios and 1" liquid. Obviously anywhere east of there is still in for a crushing regardless. Well aware. NYC was in that meso band for awhile. I'm talking more south of the city into E NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 TTN went from >2.00" QPF to 0.25" on the 4km NAM. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 TTN went from >2.00" QPF to 0.25" on the 4km NAM. Ouch. You have a map for the rest of the region? Check out the WV. Can really see why the models struggled. That little spin down by the VA Capes ..really helped to initially disrupt the firehouse for just a couple of hours to the immediate NNE of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 see below Yes but that's a given. It's not like it fit anywhere into the later capture ideas that are playing out for 2 days. I mean it was instantly tossed. This run is fine aside of the fact it is likely too slow to exit the low (IE the error/bias may still exist and this could still displace ENE at h 12 and h18 at which point it gets away from the best mechanism to make this a top 2 or 3 aka the RGEM etc. Probably not because it seems like once the lows actually bomb out models are okay. But I was speaking specifically of what it showed which was the blizzard everyone was anticipating. NYC folks shouldn't be jumping off anything yet....best snows may be right on that edge but holy crap it's a tight w to e near the city and if any shifts were to continue ...I think the chance the 12z Euro scored a coup are about zero though, it appears it just didn't see some of the pieces somehow that helped get everything a bit further NE before the turn. I mean...we're talking maybe 20 or 40 miles SW to NE....we're asking a lot to expect in this dynamic a situation any model will nail it. Some of the issue may be that the band about to rotate into NYC is super intense...and as someone was just joking where it stops - the people to the left of it will be swinging from the rafters in the AM and probably end up even below the conservative forecasts while people just to the east get what was forecast or even more. These storms are always a nailbiter for NYC-Boxing Day was really the exception and wasn't even a classic Miller B like this one. 2/8/13 closed off and bombed just a hair too late and blew up over Long Island. 12/30/00 nailed everyone but rained on Long Island. This one I still have a good feeling about-the bands still have good momentum west and are already coming into E NJ. Nassau and Suffolk Counties are still in a very good spot. Obviously you guys are mostly laughing about all this but for Upton and Mt. Holly it's a hair-puller since these 40 mile differences impact perhaps millions of people. Philly I think is in big trouble for anything more than 4-6" at this point-Mt. Holly had them at 10-14" on the maps. This is how Miller B's that blow up from clippers always behave, notwithstanding exceptions like 12/30/00 and Feb 1978, but some probably bit too hard from NYC to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 These storms are always a nailbiter for NYC-Boxing Day was really the exception and wasn't even a classic Miller B like this one. 2/8/13 closed off and bombed just a hair too late and blew up over Long Island. 12/30/00 nailed everyone but rained on Long Island. This one I still have a good feeling about-the bands still have good momentum west and are already coming into E NJ. Nassau and Suffolk Counties are still in a very good spot. Obviously you guys are mostly laughing about all this but for Upton and Mt. Holly it's a hair-puller since these 40 mile differences impact perhaps millions of people. Philly I think is in big trouble for anything more than 4-6" at this point-Mt. Holly had them at 10-14" on the maps. This is how Miller B's that blow up from clippers always behave, notwithstanding exceptions like 12/30/00 and Feb 1978, but some probably bit too hard from NYC to PHL. above my pay grade...but I think there's something with the new version of the Euro that just can't get the physics down on where these things are going to stall. It's the same bias every single time and I've only noted it since the last big upgrade. Same direction, multi-run starting at about 42-48 hours from the event whether it picks up the event at 120 hours or 72...same drill. Meanwhile RGEM seems to actually do fairly well at least this last 15 months being more progressive. The others seem to offer no real consistency at all, and the GFS is ALWAYS most east. Meanwhile 0z RGEM definitely east of the 12z early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 above my pay grade...but I think there's something with the new version of the Euro that just can't get the physics down on where these things are going to stall. It's the same bias every single time and I've only noted it since the last big upgrade. Same direction, multi-run starting at about 42-48 hours from the event whether it picks up the event at 120 hours or 72...same drill. Meanwhile RGEM seems to actually do fairly well at least this last 15 months being more progressive. The others seem to offer no real consistency at all, and the GFS is ALWAYS most east. Meanwhile 0z RGEM definitely east of the 12z early. You're a lot better at picking up on these little nuances than I am, which is why I definitely keep tuned to your posts, and you called the Euro as being overdone right away and it looks very much like you'll be right. I still regard the Euro quite highly but it definitely punked lots of people west of NYC. I'm done with models at this point-right now it's all about the obs and radar, which IMO look good at least to NYC and the NJ shore. Hopefully the band coming out of Suffolk County can sit over those guys and pivot for a while. I feel bad for those who get stuck west of that-amounts might be 1/3 of what occurs in that western band. That's always a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You have a map for the rest of the region? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You're a lot better at picking up on these little nuances than I am, which is why I definitely keep tuned to your posts, and you called the Euro as being overdone right away and it looks very much like you'll be right. I still regard the Euro quite highly but it definitely punked lots of people west of NYC. I'm done with models at this point-right now it's all about the obs and radar, which IMO look good at least to NYC and the NJ shore. Hopefully the band coming out of Suffolk County can sit over those guys and pivot for a while. I feel bad for those who get stuck west of that-amounts might be 1/3 of what occurs in that western band. That's always a doozy. It's not anything I picked out from watching the last few days (other than the first jump it made occurred right in that 42 hour ish window where it seems to start). If I hadn't suffered through those two non-events that only James and I cared about anyway...I wouldn't have been as persistent. I really do believe late today and tonight it was really obvious the Euro may have been in error. And the WV right now has me even spooked for "historic" here as it could well be winding down at lunch tomorrow. I can't justify tossing the RGEM....the epic duration of this one is in doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Some need to take deep breaths and relax. From WPC : 990 MB...29.23 INCHES...WAS CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK AND MOVING NORTHWARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Does Kev get his RGEM wish? lol Ray FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's not anything I picked out from watching the last few days (other than the first jump it made occurred right in that 42 hour ish window where it seems to start). If I hadn't suffered through those two non-events that only James and I cared about anyway...I wouldn't have been as persistent. I really do believe late today and tonight it was really obvious the Euro may have been in error. And the WV right now has me even spooked for "historic" here as it could well be winding down at lunch tomorrow. I can't justify tossing the RGEM....the epic duration of this one is in doubt. Yeh, people seem to forget that the AO/NAO aren't in a good spot for a stalled out storm for days and the pattern is progressive overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's not anything I picked out from watching the last few days (other than the first jump it made occurred right in that 42 hour ish window where it seems to start). If I hadn't suffered through those two non-events that only James and I cared about anyway...I wouldn't have been as persistent. I really do believe late today and tonight it was really obvious the Euro may have been in error. And the WV right now has me even spooked for "historic" here as it could well be winding down at lunch tomorrow. I can't justify tossing the RGEM....the epic duration of this one is in doubt. RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side. But we got a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side. But we got a long ways to go. Over by lunch time? No freakin way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Over by lunch time? No freakin way Hard to believe but that's what the RGEM showed. Can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM not favoring western areas from this point forward. I will say judging by radar it looks too far east, but probably not the scenario NYC wanted to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Upton gradually shifted their map to the east, still showing insane amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I always expected the heaviest snow to be over by noon time tomorrow here......midnight to noon will have to crank out the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 RGEM definitely bothers me a bit for the higher end totals...but I'm not convinced it is 100% right. If it was, that would be a pretty severe bust for the Euro and I don't think it will be a severe bust for the Euro...maybe a mild bust on the southwest and west side. But we got a long ways to go. I'm not sure people grasp that. I was not even slated for more than -SN until midnight and it looks like what's pivoting in will be at or just ahead of that time frame. We'll see where it goes from there but current obs can sometimes deceive folks from the overall modeled solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS going pretty far east from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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