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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Correct me if I'm wrong on two fronts John as I know you pay attention to these things:

 

1.  The RGEM is often the most NW/tucked model in these situations.

2.  The 18z RGEM and the 0z NAM are very similar.  Later tuck and roll.

 

I believe although the NAM is obviously going to miss details and no model will be spot on, the trend will continue tonight for a later initial capture.  Whether it's convective feedback or just a true blue bias this last 18 months, seems to happen with every capture.

 

1...  Will might be better to ask that, but ... I have found the RGEM to be a darn good tool inside of 36 hours in general. In fact, I use that over the NAM in most cases.  Which is interesting considering the GGEM can't predict a hole in the head after losing Russian Roulettes.

 

2. If they are, the NAM is coincidental... But even the RGEM isn't infallible.  

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Don't care what the Nam shows, don't care what the GFS shows. C'mon guy's you know the drill. Should I bump the Feb 13 thread, yea Euro will probably bump east a few but Save a horse.that being said using Rays Cut NAM by 1/3rd and we are still destroyed

 

I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had.  Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter.  It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW.

 

Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that.  I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west.    It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero.

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I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had.  Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter.  It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW.

 

Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that.  I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west.    It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero.

 

I took one look at one panel of the 18z RGEM ...36 hour panel, and structurally there are a lot of differences compared to this 00z NAM run... 

 

Believe me, I know my stuff - 

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I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had. Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter. It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW.

Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that. I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west. It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero.

I remember that storm, but it sounds like you are saying that it will do the same because the last one did. Not sure that stands to reason.
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