wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 this looks alot like 18z RGEM, maxima in southeast and central MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We'll get an entirely new scenario at 6z.convective blobs causing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong on two fronts John as I know you pay attention to these things: 1. The RGEM is often the most NW/tucked model in these situations. 2. The 18z RGEM and the 0z NAM are very similar. Later tuck and roll. I believe although the NAM is obviously going to miss details and no model will be spot on, the trend will continue tonight for a later initial capture. Whether it's convective feedback or just a true blue bias this last 18 months, seems to happen with every capture. 1... Will might be better to ask that, but ... I have found the RGEM to be a darn good tool inside of 36 hours in general. In fact, I use that over the NAM in most cases. Which is interesting considering the GGEM can't predict a hole in the head after losing Russian Roulettes. 2. If they are, the NAM is coincidental... But even the RGEM isn't infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM is overdoing amounts for sure. NYC area likely to see 11".. crippling nonetheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM stuck at 27 hours on NCEP site, where you guys lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I will lay down a round at the next GTG (after February) if it doesn't cave on this run....finally. Euro? I wouldn't be surprised by a slight tick east...but cave to the NAM, I highly doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's not really a DS. Plenty of low level forcing in very cold 850 temps. BOS is fine verbatim. Yeah, either way people are forgetting boxing day. Dry slotted on that one and the coast was crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well geez guys, which model HAS shown continuity then? Oh wait... The Euro has been better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 if there was ever a good case for it this run would be it convective blobs causing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM tends to be amped up near 48 hrs, but much better IMHO inside 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take 36-48 inches based on the nam. Let's go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I noticed how it jumped when the phasing occurred, the center relocated to the east and then headed north. Not sure if that jump was legitimate or a convective feedback issue. Could be right but the Euro is definitely must see TV now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro has been better.Yeah, that's what I was alluding to lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 wow nam is epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt... Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 name the last time the NAM beat the euro before a major east coast event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Don't care what the Nam shows, don't care what the GFS shows. C'mon guy's you know the drill. Should I bump the Feb 13 thread, yea Euro will probably bump east a few but Save a horse.that being said using Rays Cut NAM by 1/3rd and we are still destroyed I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had. Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter. It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW. Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that. I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west. It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 name the last time the NAM beat the euro before a major east coast eventWhich model existed first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had. Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter. It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW. Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that. I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west. It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero. I took one look at one panel of the 18z RGEM ...36 hour panel, and structurally there are a lot of differences compared to this 00z NAM run... Believe me, I know my stuff - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I could bump a thread from the last major closed low where the Euro had me under a blizzard warning up until the bitter end but the low ended up closing out further east like the other models had. Will and I had a great back and forth about it...think it was the last major 'storm' of last winter. It lead the way and was dead consistent...in being too far SW. Not saying the NAM is specifically right, but I will continue to favor a later capture and any model that portrays that. I may go down swinging on this one but I think the EUro is still too far west. It matters ZERO for most of us anyway...I mean really zero. I remember that storm, but it sounds like you are saying that it will do the same because the last one did. Not sure that stands to reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take 36-48 inches based on the nam. Let's go.... You don't get anything close to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yes, it is the NAM. Gotta actually get to the real models first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You don't get anything close to thatk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's not about the NAM, its the fact every model other than the euro has gone east since 12z euro ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM stuck at 27 hours on NCEP site, where you guys lookin? Tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ponder this friends, we will have a storm that lasts through 2 sleep cycles for those of us sane enough to not go allnighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's not about the NAM, its the fact every model other than the euro has gone east since 12z euro ran.don't you remember 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 don't you remember 2013? Yes Bae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Quick question, does anyone know when the heavier snow is supposed to start. I'm driving back to the Framingham area around 6pm tomorrow from Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I tried to fight the good fight but weenies keep believing in the worst models. I'm not wavering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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