BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 . Nice 30" spec in SE Ma 1 pixel lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 22z RAP not looking as favorable for NYC as 21z did. Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in. I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage. I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro. We're 40 minutes from verification - again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The meltdowns would be epic. I wouldn't cheer that on, but I would find a way to take sick pleasure out of that. We really need to see those returns expand and start rotating NW and WNW over LI and east of NJ for me to think the super wet models are right to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The meltdowns would be epic. I wouldn't cheer that on, but I would find a way to take sick pleasure out of that. It would be like March 2001st 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can't imagine this verifying. From 5pm onwards Looks great for eastern ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Confirmed 2.0" on the ground, heavy snow temp of 30.9F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think Will said earlier that in Nemo the RPM had the same thing the day of the event and had Ct almost no snow..only to have the megaband end up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The meltdowns would be epic. I wouldn't cheer that on, but I would find a way to take sick pleasure out of that. I would be laughing so hard--the continuation of the 2014-15 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Definitely beginning to see the pivot taking place, radar is also filling in. I am still surprised by the fact that the returns down there are that far east of the NJ shoreline at this stage. I anticipated the back edge of the broken precip would have started essentially right on the beaches per the Euro. We're 40 minutes from verification - again rough glance but it all looks a little east to me and not fast enough up near the Cape with this first band.euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far...LGA 0.20" EWR 0.12" JFK 0.11" Of course some of that is a meso weenie band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think Will said earlier that in Nemo the RPM had the same thing the day of the event and had Ct almost no snow..only to have the megaband end up there. Yeah, it's wrong until proven right at this point. I can't imagine the Euro busting that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I would be laughing so hard--the continuation of the 2014-15 winter. Most of the general public wouldn't be. There would be lynch mobs out for the mets. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 22z HRRR comes west a bit. Analyzing these hourly models blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We will let mother nature know of your demands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The meltdowns would be epic. I wouldn't cheer that on, but I would find a way to take sick pleasure out of that. That snowfall map just posted has me at 2-4" in Central NH, actually 2-4" down to almost Concord NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Look like the Euro to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Make that .6F, now 30.3FepicObs thread though James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 22z HRRR comes west a bit. Analyzing these hourly models blows. I hate them, Especially that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 euro had about 0.15" QPF in the 18-00z period in the NYC area. Precip totals since 18z so far... LGA 0.20" EWR 0.12" JFK 0.11" Of course some of that is a meso weenie band. Just looked as carefully as I care to at this point. The GFS and Euro deviate immediately in these next 3 or so hours. GFS starts to pivot, fails and lifts everything north never getting the precip back to the west. The Euro obviously is able to do that. My take? And I didn't look very carefully but the Euro is too far west. Probably not a ton, but it is I think. However, there's clearly back building and a pivot underway. I could be totally wrong but looks like maybe a 25 or 30 mile difference. GFS does seem to be totally cracked out unless we suddenly see this pivot release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 22z HRRR comes west a bit. Analyzing these hourly models blows. There is literally no point yet. RPM looks clueless. Honestly, euro looks pretty good so far with its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro had the LP tracking NE a few more ticks before N/NNW when it had the late capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 There is literally no point yet. RPM looks clueless. Honestly, euro looks pretty good so far with its 12z run.Well when I do it I pretty much just look at the early hours. Anything past 6hr...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well when I do it I pretty much just look at the early hours. Anything past 6hr...meh. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0533 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015Areas affected, ern long island / cape cod and portions of ern ma /ri / sern ctconcerning, heavy snowvalid 262333Z - 270430Zsummary, heavy snowfall rates 1+ inches/hour will probably beginbetween 01-03 UTC along the immediate coast of srn new england andern long island.discussion, 23Z surface analysis shows an estimated 994-mb low 200mi SE acy and surface temps below freezing along the srn new englandcoast. water vapor imagery shows a negative-tilt mid-level troughlocated over the carolinas and wrn atlantic early this evening.very strong h5 height falls /180 m per 12 hr/ will likely occurdownstream during the next 12 hours to the SE of long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 radar juicing up over West Central Long island and NYC and backing up West more noticeably to the south of Long island. Not that it means anything for here, just a observation to the SW the thing that is slightly interesting is the vortex (on radar) just east of NJ , maybe a radar trick http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=okx&loop=yes doesn't show up as well on mt holly so I highly doubt it would be any sort of LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 One thing that seems like a lock, is that this is a south shore jackpot. I could imagine totals in the lower 30s, Euro has got to be too juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 One thing that seems like a lock, is that this is a south shore jackpot. I could imagine totals in the lower 30s, Euro has got to be too juiced. 40-50 inch amounts in a few places there seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the Euro will verify. Look at it backing into the NYC area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 40-50 inch amounts in a few places there seems likely I'll go on a road trip post mortem for that kind of total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 21F less than inch on the ground in Mendon. 20 miles SE of Worcester and it's just about 7PM.... When does this start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 21F less than inch on the ground in Mendon. 20 miles SE of Worcester and it's just about 7PM.... When does this start? I would say it has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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