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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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RPM completely disagree's with Euro. Interesting that some of there other hires models have also gone significantly East. If the RPM's right I only get 8", if the Euro is right 18-20"... Can't believe such a big difference at this late stage. 

 

What are the Hires models picking up ???!!??

 

They should be able to handle convective feedback right?

Initialization errors?

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Haha, yeah like the RAP at 18 hours out.

 

I would've expected a much better H7 presentation than wrapping dry air in and split omega.  That should be a wall of high RH and omega jamming from NYC through New England up into Maine.

 

rap_namer_018_700_rh_ht.gif

 

 

I've been slammed all day just settling..  first impression based on water vapor is oh fu** here comes the 7 9 split.....there's a big dry punch opening up as this system winds up.   Can see where the model battles have originated.   This is going to get very interesting in the next 6 hours.   I really don't think the east solutions can be entirely discarded yet...

 

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150126&endTime=-1&duration=6

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I went to undergrad in the Boston area, so I always root for the city for huge snowstorms. Any idea why the NWS latest warning text (1 to 2 ft, locally more) is completely out of range from the latest snowfall map (24-36", 29" being the "most likely" amount for Boston)? They were released at almost the same time. 

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Looks like the GFS vomited right up to go time once again....lol.

 

When I look at the models quickly vs 21/22z....I think and this was a very fast glance...that the Euro was still too far west and probably too slow with the systems movement.   The next hour is really critical as everything comes together, but I'd have liked to see that striated band of precip east of ACY actually right on the coast to confirm the Euro and some others western edge.

 

JMHO....  looking at the radar the orientation of the developing bands etc - I mean at least right now they appear to be originating outward from a center that is a bit SE.   Maybe it hooks up and in over the next few hours, don't know beats me.

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Box is going to be way off with Cape Cod accumulations.

How so?

 

they have 14 to 18 on W part of cape then 10-14 down the spine of cape  thru N Harwich (Along route  6) to almost CHH,  seems like they tried to put as much detail into that as they could

 

We are all pulling for you James.

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