Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just posted the 4pm BOX AFD in Jay's Archive Thread Just an epic read. Chills reading it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45513-january-26-28-2015-blizzard-archive/?p=3302276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Would you mind posting KPWM and KLEW? LEW 27 to 21 PWM 28 to 24 Here's the plume viewer URL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Think most of us get paranoid right before the event when a sucker hole is likely. It's one thing to have a storm whiff one way or another...but when everyone around you gets nailed and you can't manage persistent heavy snow, it's the worst IMO. We've all been there. But if you get lucky things break your way. I remember being paranoid about getting sucker holed in the Feb 2013 storm...most of the models had this area in the screw zone...I was pretty pessimistic up until the deform band moved ashore from LI around 5-6pm. 30" later... I remember this well. The CRV had a really bad run of luck between about 2003-2010 where we would always be on the low end of storm totals, and I became convinced (despite Ryan's assurances) that there was something about this area (downsloping, etc). that just made it a snow hole. That completely turned around in Jan 2011, and we've been doing really well for most storms since then, Nemo especially. The downsloping effect can be real, but it's only an issue for certain kinds of storms, and it doesn't come up that much. I've become pretty well convinced that models just don't yet have the skill to resolve the meso features that create jackpots and snow holes during big storms. They'll set up somewhere, but I try not to sweat the details of each model run, and reality always offers many surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What a slow ride home from work. Seems like everyone in CT got out of work early. Roads starting to slick up a bit and wind is really whipping in spots already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Significant tick east on the 18z rgem. Not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was thinking a tick SE of the ecens. I think Kev may have gottenmore from the NAM...lol I could be totally selfish and say the 30+ inches it gives me I wouldn't toss it but its wrong from the get go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why are short range models so southeast? It makes a world of difference for NYC. So close in and we still dont have consensus for upton's western zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Significant tick east on the 18z rgem. Not buying it. rgem_18z_1-26-15.gif Agreed. And actually it reality is a little further west I am pumped...nice banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Significant tick east on the 18z rgem. Not buying it. rgem_18z_1-26-15.gif Why not? its been pretty consistent. Im concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Interesting that the HRRR/RPM etc are wayyyyyy southeast. I wonder what's doing it. convective feedback?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 2.5km HRDPS Canadien model had the BOS/PVD/LI corridor jackpotting with a secondary jackpot on the cape at 12z. East like rgem. That's a new one. Big storms always bring out some interesting models haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Significant tick east on the 18z rgem. Not buying it. Apparently neither are any of the NWS offices. BOX has not updated map but Albany, Upton and GYX all look like updated maps (time sigs) that keep W NE well in the game. I trust their collective ability to interpret models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why not? its been pretty consistent. Im concerned. Relax, you're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Some models don't even turn us over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Some models don't even turn us over to rain. You're gonna rain a little... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Significant tick east on the 18z rgem. Not buying it. rgem_18z_1-26-15.gif Wow... 10mm is like .4" and 20mm is .8" ect... but that's really quite low from Tolland-ORH and west. Like 0.8" QPF for Tolland and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why not? its been pretty consistent. Im concerned. The Euro has been just as consistent. I'm a proud Euro hugger. It's not perfect, but it's very rarely that wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why are short range models so southeast? It makes a world of difference for NYC. So close in and we still dont have consensus for upton's western zones. Yeah its puzzling...the RAP doesn't even get the deform band to ORH through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not that it really matters, but interesting that Taunton's update to the Blizzard Warning has Boston at 1-2 feet+, while NYC east back up to 20-30 inches+. Incredible discussion though. Just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wow... 10mm is like .4" and 20mm is .8" ect... but that's really quite low from Tolland-ORH and west. Like 0.8" QPF for Tolland and west. The snow map for my hood is something I have never seen, and Jays abbreviation is the official name for what we call the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah its puzzling...the RAP doesn't even get the deform band to ORH through 18 hours. Some models just shouldnt be used..it causes confusion and panic......and I fall right into it lol. I admit, I am not ashamed that my butt cheeks are tightly clenched for the next 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 any general ideas of QPF on the RGEM? Here, go check for yourself http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 radar starting to fill in. Of course it's got a screw hole going down 495. I hope it's not a sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS qpf totals will bring frowns to lots of faces. Still a decent storm. Ride the EC. snowing lightly at the Pit. 16.4/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro has been just as consistent. I'm a proud Euro hugger. It's not perfect, but it's very rarely that wrong. I've hugged the euro since it dropped 30 in NYC on 3 consecutive runs....to only see it tick east on the next 3. So yea, Im hugging it but I wouldn't be surprised if it ticked east again tonight, actually...i expect it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The beginning stages of the super band is south of the region still, impacting Nantucket and slowing down and convergence is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Some models just shouldnt be used..it causes confusion and panic......and I fall right into it lol. I admit, I am not ashamed that my butt cheeks are tightly clenched for the next 8 hours. Haha, yeah like the RAP at 18 hours out. I would've expected a much better H7 presentation than wrapping dry air in and split omega. That should be a wall of high RH and omega jamming from NYC through New England up into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RPM completely disagree's with Euro. Interesting that some of there other hires models have also gone significantly East. If the RPM's right I only get 8", if the Euro is right 18-20"... Can't believe such a big difference at this late stage. What are the Hires models picking up ???!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS qpf totals will bring frowns to lots of faces. Still a decent storm. Ride the EC. snowing lightly at the Pit. 16.4/6 The GFS is an embarrassment of a model. Euro is king . we know this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS qpf totals will bring frowns to lots of faces. Still a decent storm. Ride the EC. snowing lightly at the Pit. 16.4/6 BOX not buying. They are riding a different horse: OVERALL WENT WITH MESOSCALE MODELS /MAINLY THE NAM WITH A TOUCH OF THE WRF/ ALONG WITH A EC/WPC BLEND POINT TO THE TWO AREAS IN QUESTION FOR SNOW-BANDING. ALL OTHER MODELS /GFS-CANADIAN-UKMET/ WERE CLUSTERED A BIT FASTER. OVERALL IT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OF LOW POSITIONING AND THERE REMAINS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. They're map has not updated from this morning but my 4:30 zone forecast is still 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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