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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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18z NAM QPF... two large metro areas just destroyed.  A Tolland County nightmare.  The NYC battle is amazing... EURO and NAM going big, a lot of other models going quite low.

 

nam_total_precip_ma_12_zps0b6a110a.png

 

Just like the E-E rule of the old days. For those who don't know, the predecessor to the NAM was the ETA model, and when it was in agreement with the Euro, look out. BTW, I wish they'd bring the ETA back. A lot more consistent with predictable biases that most could account for.

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DIT jumping off the Q bridge after seeing the NAM? He still gets 15", but holy subsidence there.

It looks like the I91 corridor or just east is the favorite right now to get that local min, but you never know where the bands form... 

I'm not worried one bit by that garbage.LOL..every other piece of useable guidance shifted east and it goes even farther west. There's going to be some disappointed folks to the west of SNE if they are hanging hats on NAM

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I'm not worried one bit by that garbage.LOL..every other piece of useable guidance shifted east and it goes even farther west. There's going to be some disappointed folks to the west of SNE if they are hanging hats on NAM

 

I think it's certainly a possibility. Not everyone will jackpot with 2 feet of snow. There will be an ugly zone of subsidence east of the super-band. 

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I think it's certainly a possibility. Not everyone will jackpot with 2 feet of snow. There will be an ugly zone of subsidence east of the super-band. 

What if the Nam had shifted east? Would you still think it's possible?

 

That's my point. It's always been possible for all areas except SE Mass

 

noone has a clue where it will set up.   

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You seem worried

Jay you've made your point clear..you think this area of Ct is going to get dry slotted while areas east and west don't. You're entitled to your thoughts. If the NAM had any support ok..but when the serf's jumped east..that should probably tell us something. But again..we don't know..and probably ..it's time to put down the models anyway and just watch what unfolds

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What if the Nam had shifted east? Would you still think it's possible?

 

That's my point. It's always been possible for all areas except SE Mass

 

noone has a clue where it will set up.   

 

Exactly. No one knows. Is the NAM a possibility with the heavy snow from the Berks/NYC - absolutely. Could be be 50 miles too far west - absolutely.

 

Not sure why you're melting down over it. Of course it's possible.

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Exactly. No one knows. Is the NAM a possibility with the heavy snow from the Berks/NYC - absolutely. Could be be 50 miles too far west - absolutely.

 

Not sure why you're melting down over it. Of course it's possible.

Well it was nice to see you raise totals statewide after it came out. That actually reassured me!

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Euro is def a bit east of the 18z nam. I think the nam is probably too far west. It is quite a bit further west than even the rap only 12 hours out.

It doesn't make a huge difference for most of us in here but the western fringes it might.

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