jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How much snow are we talking before the changeover now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Those are similar to this area too. Incredible differences this close to gametime. I can't even find a GFS ensemble members or even a SREF ARW member that shows that much precip reaching the ALB-BTV longtitude. Something funky happened in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ok this is climbing up a notch every run, lots of issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I switched my reservation to Mansfield MA lets hope the EURO is righr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's also important not to react to every model run. What may look great now could change a bit at 00z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 the nam needs to hold ground and the other models need to tick slightly west or its going to turn into a central and eastern New England special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This was always a central and eastern SNE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I switched my reservation to Mansfield MA lets hope the EURO is righr If not for my obligations this week, I would have probably flown up and stayed in the same hotel as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Seems like it's still snowing most places into Wed morning to varying degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Down this way, the Euro has had around an inch of precip almost every model run, with 12z increasing it further. If it busts towards the other guidance, it would be one of the more memorable Euro busts out here I have ever seen. I can't even find a GFS ensemble members or even a SREF ARW member that shows that much precip reaching the ALB-BTV longtitude. Something funky happened in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So as I see it for up here... NAM...0.2" GGEM...0.15" GFS...0.4" UKMET...0.1" ECMWF...1.0" The King is either a hero or it falls really hard. FWIW (SREF grain of salt warning) the last SREF run brought .6 to IV4 and has been fairly consistent with a mean of 10 inches or so here. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150126&RT=09&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=1V4&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=44.49234506559211&mLON=-72.82372153625488&mTYP=roadmap Plus the SREF do bring some nice dendrite growth up this way. I don't look at the SREF for much but I do like the dendrite growth loops. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2015012603&id=SREF_prob_dend_50__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EURO rots the deform band up here. That's ridiculous and I toss. You can see how it lingers QPF up here for several panels. Anyway, hard numbers are 1.4" for Lewiston and 1.7" for Laconia, 1.0" for MVL. I'll eat my hat if Dryslot only gets 0.4" more QPF than up here. That was a bizarre run. Who doesn't enjoy a nice meal of hat now and then though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's also important not to react to every model run. What may look great now could change a bit at 00z too. Of course, but does seem to accord with your earlier comment regarding ridiculous southeast MA jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EURO rots the deform band up here. That's ridiculous and I toss. You can see how it lingers QPF up here for several panels. Anyway, hard numbers are 1.4" for Lewiston and 1.7" for Laconia, 1.0" for MVL. I'll eat my hat if Dryslot only gets 0.4" more QPF than up here. That was a bizarre run. I actually don't think it's implausible for this to happen. The gradient is so tight, just a 40-50 mile further pivot of the deform zone would do this. And the stronger the system usually the further west that zone sets up vs. guidance. Perhaps the Euro is just ahead of the other models in picking that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Just under 2" of qpf this run...I think ORH is in a good spot. Might even be 2" on the dot. Nice. Thanks and have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 At this point you actually have to start talking about 40-50 inches in interior SE Mass..Every single model drops like 3 inches + of qpf down there. Even at 10:1..that's still 36+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Big break on tide heights this time, surges around 3.5 feet, waves 35-50 feet open ocean 25-35 feet nearer shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why the heck not Boston. You'd have fun. Or a town in sema where you can walk around. Urgent , i can switch my reservation mansfield instead would that be better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 At this point you actually have to start talking about 40-50 inches in interior SE Mass..Every single model drops like 3 inches + of qpf down there. Even at 10:1..that's still 36+ starting to approach the holy grail situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 At this point you actually have to start talking about 40-50 inches in interior SE Mass..Every single model drops like 3 inches + of qpf down there. Even at 10:1..that's still 36+ This is 1978...notch down with regard to cf. Someone down in se MA wil pull 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 LOL, live and die by the Euro out here. it doubles up every other model for snow in W MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What are the ratios for various cities in SNE (and NNE). If anyone wants to throw in a list of predicted amounts, that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This was always a central and eastern SNE special. not really,the euro is an all of southern New England special. 2 inches of QPF right to the New York border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 starting to approach the holy grail situation The deformation band is going to be wider and bigger than anyone expected i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherEmperor Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm not really sure what to say when I see maps approaching 40" in the area of Providence. That just sounds so absurd it is hard to contemplate. That the Euro is saying it is even more absurd. That it has been consistent 3+ times in a row is a bit scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The CF looks ridiculous for the Boston area on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 One big weenie....just swinging over sne, from west to east, east to west... For historical record first flakes 0938 1/26/15 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 The stuff you read about from days of yore. Scooter safe and sound at home tomorrow Governor Dan Malloy @GovMalloyOffice 20m 20 minutes ago ICYMI: Gov. Malloy signed a State of Emergency declaration earlier this morning in preparation for the coming storm http://www.governor.ct.gov/malloy/cwp/view.asp?Q=559968&A=4010 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can only imagine what the sref mean is going to spit out for boston based on 12hr means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The CF looks ridiculous for the Boston area on the euro. I was wondering about that! That Is a key ingredient for obscene totals in Boston ..... I was trying to load my fav meso model for CF stuff but the 4KM BTV WRF at 12z won't load for me Dick Albert (remember him old weenies) is Chuckin em' on Harvey's Twitter "This storm could be top 5 in Boston. In addition more snow later in week. In addition, some of coldest weather in years in early February." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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