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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event

The EURO has had some short term fails this year, at least up here. There haven't been many winter storms for you guys to compare but up here so far this winter, the Euro sniffs the threat out first, it's the most consistent, but it's been too heavy on QPF in the short range.

Even the last wet snow event up here it had 1.6" of QPF for me within 12 hours of the event that verified with 0.6" as the heaviest went east.

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I'm a longtime lurker, infrequent poster.  As we get set to kick this storm off, just curious from the veterans how you see this storm evolving from a "historic storm" perspective.  It seems like a hard thing to do heading into a storm - eg I'm sure nobody would have predicted the Blizzard of 78 to be historic.

 

New England is hard to make broad-brush generalizations about for the reasons inherently obvious to this group.  That being said, where do folks see this one stacking up?  

Top 5 for snowfall potential in several of the "Big 4" climo sites.  The wind near you will be intense.

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Frikkin awesome to see what is happening just off the NC coast.  Love the south to north motion and explosion of cloud tops.  BTW if you didn't know, there is an awesome pinned thread in the NYC subforum with every conceivable radar, satellite pressure falls, etc link.

Many maps and images here for upcoming storm:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/

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1030 AM UPDATE...

HERE WE GO.

TOP-DOWN MOISTENING APPARENT BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING
WITH SOME DRY-AIR LINGERING AROUND H85. MUCH DRIER N PER PORTLAND
MAINE SOUNDING WITH EXTREMELY LOW PWATS. IT IS THE COMBINATION OF
THERMAL-PACKING / AIRMASS ALONG WHICH WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS THAT
WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE W-E F-GEN FORCING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
WARM-FRONT AS ACTIVITY ALOFT NEGATIVELY TROUGHS LENDING TO
INTENSIFICATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ENHANCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. CHECK OUT THE H85-5
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OUT OF THE S. H925 WINDS OUT OF THE E...
PERHAPS AIDING IN MOISTENING OF LOW-LEVELS AND ADDING A DEGREE OF
OCEAN-EFFECT FETCH TO THE DISCERNED BANDING. WITHIN THE E-W SNOW
BANDING PRESENTLY IMPACTING THE S-COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF NEW
ENGLAND...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO A MILE ON AVERAGE. SNOW SHOULD
ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY AS TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND THE UPPER-
TEENS TO LOW-20S AND THE GROUND IS EXCEPTIONALLY COLD.

ALSO SEEING A COASTAL FRONT SETUP SW-NE OFFSHORE OF THE IMMEDIATE
E-MA COASTLINE AND THROUGH THE CAPE-COD CANAL. THE CONVERGENCE OF
WINDS AND DECENT MOISTURE FETCH IS LENDING TO SOME LIGHT SNOWS
OVER THE S-BOSTON-METRO INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE ANTICIPATED DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.

IMPORTANT: AS ALLUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...WITH
INCREASING WINDS YIELDS AN INCREASING FETCH. ENHANCEMENT OF
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS E-MA POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE EVENING
COMMUTE. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...COULD BE IMPACTS TO
EVENING BOSTON-METRO AREA COMMUTE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
CLOSELY.

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i dont think they wanted to put the 24-36s up but they had to mesh it with BOX.

We can analyze all of the model runs until we're blue in the face, but it's hard to pin down those deformation bands until the event gets cranking. I still think it looks best for that ORH-LWM-PSM corridor, but we'll see how it plays out. I liked 10-14" here last night and GYX has me in that now. High bust potential either way.

 

Not going to nail down specifics as far as suckerholes, Subsidance zones or dryslots until this sets up

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i dont think they wanted to put the 24-36s up but they had to mesh it with BOX.

We can analyze all of the model runs until we're blue in the face, but it's hard to pin down those deformation bands until the event gets cranking. I still think it looks best for that ORH-LWM-PSM corridor, but we'll see how it plays out. I liked 10-14" here last night and GYX has me in that now. High bust potential either way.

 

That's my thought.  I'm liking my call of 20" ±2" for MBY but I'd like to see where that band sets up (as I know everyone would!).

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StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

GYX all over the road, my totals up and down by a foot every update it seems. 

 

First big January snowstorm in years, and I'm visiting family in S. NJ - expecting 12-16" down here, had about 1" from today's clipper.  We were planning to drive home tomorrow - guess that's not a wise idea, but the Forester ought to make it on Wednesday.   I'd be satisfied with the current GYX forecast of 8-12" for S. Franklin; would be nice to be able to get into the driveway Wednesday evening.

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I'm a longtime lurker, infrequent poster.  As we get set to kick this storm off, just curious from the veterans how you see this storm evolving from a "historic storm" perspective.  It seems like a hard thing to do heading into a storm - eg I'm sure nobody would have predicted the Blizzard of 78 to be historic.

 

New England is hard to make broad-brush generalizations about for the reasons inherently obvious to this group.  That being said, where do folks see this one stacking up?  

 

I think it is going to fall short of a storm like Feb '78 and probably even Feb 2013. But I think it will probably be in the top 10...you are correct that it is very hard to really pin down the magnitude of these events until it's usually already well underway. But just comparing the model progs from this one to Feb '13, I think it falls just a shade short. That said, there are certain areas that will get more than theydid in that storm, but I think the widespread coverage of 24"+ will be less in this storm than that one.

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He already landed in Logan...he texted me on how pumped he was that he made it.

I would have killed myself if I didn't make it. Like Literally lol. It's snowing nicely here. At a friends house in Jamacia Plain right now. Went on the T with my bags and Flamed Accordion. Happy as Ever. My dad will be picking me up later to bring me to KCNM. You guys need to come sledding at CN Mountain this weekend!!!!
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