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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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If anything, snowfall west of HYA may be not high enough IMO.

 

Yeah that area near PYM-Bridgewater-GHG triangle could be a sneaky monster total...everyone is focusing on the deform band, but that area is gonna get firehosed and get CF enhancement too.

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I'd feel pretty good on the south shore right now...they will avoid any screwzones I think.

Yup, Scooter can sit back count his snow and hand out his "you'll be fine" posts to others sucking subsidence exhaust ( I know Scott likes to keep those from melting lol) but as I posted earlier, it is easy to make that post when you are  in particular not failing to meet your area's forecast amounts (whether it is zero or 20). 

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Water vapor loop is pretty classic.  Live link

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Frikkin awesome to see what is happening just off the NC coast.  Love the south to north motion and explosion of cloud tops.  BTW if you didn't know, there is an awesome pinned thread in the NYC subforum with every conceivable radar, satellite pressure falls, etc link.

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There's even hints of nice enhancement into BOS too really. Could care less about all the subsidence worries.

 

 

Yeah I think BOS will be fine..."fine" in terms of I don't think they will be a local minimum. Everyone is going to do fine in this storm from an absolute standpoint.

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honest assessment Mets please, how concerned should we be from the Connecticut River Valley points west?

 

 

I wouldnt be that worried in the CT River Valley...I might be a bit concerned from Mitch's area in the western Berks down to interior SE NY and maybe far NW CT...that's kind of a wildcard. I probably would be less concerned if the RGEM didn't come in as far east as it did. It's not a crappy model in coastals like the GFS often can be.

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I think somewhere near you. Hope that's not the kiss of death.

If the banding sets up as some modeling shows (yeah, right) it could be my biggest since moving to my house. But  Iam locked onto the area around OWD, TAN as my call for biggest winners. Plus they should do well with the winds

 

Gonna be hard to get good measurements in this.

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I'm a longtime lurker, infrequent poster.  As we get set to kick this storm off, just curious from the veterans how you see this storm evolving from a "historic storm" perspective.  It seems like a hard thing to do heading into a storm - eg I'm sure nobody would have predicted the Blizzard of 78 to be historic.

 

New England is hard to make broad-brush generalizations about for the reasons inherently obvious to this group.  That being said, where do folks see this one stacking up?  

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That map over night was pretty much Euro, I think there will be more adjustments before all said and done

i dont think they wanted to put the 24-36s up but they had to mesh it with BOX.

We can analyze all of the model runs until we're blue in the face, but it's hard to pin down those deformation bands until the event gets cranking. I still think it looks best for that ORH-LWM-PSM corridor, but we'll see how it plays out. I liked 10-14" here last night and GYX has me in that now. High bust potential either way.

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