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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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It's concerning to be honest.

Sit back and enjoy. At close lead time in 2013, nothing forecasted the band in central CT. I don't think rpm is accounting for the counterbalancing factors alluded to. And if that shadow is 10 miles further east we jump for joy. So I'm letting it all happen.

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Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots.

3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective.

And we were talking futility on the season.

I think 10-15" here will do the trick. Can adjust later. We always seem to dry slot faster than progged

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I tried to post this yesterday, but I don't remember if it went through with all the board issues.

For posterity:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_5_zps3zbl6ppv.png

If I stop to actually think about it, I really thought we were beyond a point where models would not be able to see a KU Blizzard 4 days out , or at least the Chance of one, I don't know the model history of this becauses I honestly didn't start paying attention until Saturday 12z runs. This is now billed as a Historic storm and models didn't see it at 96 hours, which to me is so unbelievably rare in this day and age I wish we had a discussion (perhaps we did) as to why this was in the models "blind" spot up toward 96 hours.

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Yeah jackpot fetishes are in full swing this morning. It's going to be a huge storm even outside the banding jackpots.

3 days ago this was a whiff. Helps keep things in perspective.

Personally, I don't care if I jackpot. Still, though, I'd like to see mby do well.

Not thrilled about maps that I see that give me 6-12.

Typically with benchmark storms, the deformation band will set up way west of where it's progged to do for this storm. Why?

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If I stop to actually think about it, I really thought we were beyond a point where models would not be able to see a KU Blizzard 4 days out , or at least the Chance of one, I don't know the model history of this becauses I honestly didn't start paying attention until Saturday 12z runs. This is now billed as a Historic storm and models didn't see it at 96 hours, which to me is so unbelievably rare in this day and age I wish we had a discussion (perhaps we did) as to why this was in the models "blind" spot up toward 96 hours.

Someone mentioned the other day that a short-wave moved on shore which was a significant piece of the puzzle...

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If I stop to actually think about it, I really thought we were beyond a point where models would not be able to see a KU Blizzard 4 days out , or at least the Chance of one, I don't know the model history of this becauses I honestly didn't start paying attention until Saturday 12z runs. This is now billed as a Historic storm and models didn't see it at 96 hours, which to me is so unbelievably rare in this day and age I wish we had a discussion (perhaps we did) as to why this was in the models "blind" spot up toward 96 hours.

Well it was on guidance the middle d last week though not to the extent that we see now. Then it disappeared for a few runs and we thought that was it but then the models started catching onto that 2nd shortwave catching up to the first and phasing. Carl Lewis chasing the fat kid.

But yeah it is fairly rare to see such a bust inside 100 hours on a storm of this magnitude.

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