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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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I just don't understand why NWS OKX is forecasting the same totals for NE NJ/Staten Island/Brooklyn as central and eastern LI and eastern two-thirds of southern CT.  

 

In the Feb 2013 blizzard, NWS OKX also forecasted NYC to s. CT and LI to all receive similar totals.  In that event, it was fairly clear (at least to me) 1-2 days in advance from the synoptic situation and mesoscale guidance that eastern/central LI and south-central CT would be the big winners.   In that case I believe they forecast 12-20" for both NYC and eastern LI/s. CT.  

 

I do see a deform band inland locally enhancing totals somewhere from NYC N and W, but I expect totals in Suffolk County NY and Middlesex/New Haven Counties CT to be close to double those in most of NE NJ and NYC.  

 

When you're forecasting a record snowstorm for the biggest city in the NYC you better hope they crack the top 10. A 15" storm is a big deal but it's not crippling, paralyzing, or historic for the city.

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Seriously. I know you interior people don't get it, but it's going to be out of control there. Video will be awesome.

 

I've seen breakers sending spray over roof tops and jumping the sea wall there, with storms that passed well out to sea. This is going to be pretty epic.

 

I'm willing to bet a few homes pay the ultimate price on the shore.

 

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I've seen breakers sending spray over roof tops and jumping the sea wall there, with storms that passed well out to sea. This is going to be pretty epic.

 

I'm willing to bet a few homes pay the ultimate price on the shore.

 

I had video down in Marshfield from the Dec nor'easter. This storm will make that look like a seabreeze. 

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While I've got your attention...it seems like the Euro has been consistent with having copious amounts of qpf in general. Is this from closing off h5 earlier?

 

It just has a uniform slug of precip, but hi res euro does have the two areas of snow max. Different things such as closing off and low location as well as LLJ will dictate the precip shield. 

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