CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Lock it in boys. Time for the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 https://twitter.com/insideyourfuego/status/559638506264625152 This comforts me. Harvey likes this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 They had to cut back on those insane widespread 24-36" amounts, but this is still diesel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Harvey thinks 10-18 for the berks, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM similar to 00z A little wetter within that subby zone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM similar to 00z A little wetter within that subby zone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z RGEM almost identical to 0z RGEM Stubborn with that subsidence area for multiple runs now, tight deform and coastal front band flanking Boston metro South coast / southeast MA does well consistently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 fwiw Harvey leaning with RGEM more than 0z Euro / 6z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 RGEM similar to 00z A little wetter within that subby zone though. Is your roof strapped down? 06-12z Tuesday eastern Mass is going to rock. Ginxy's favorite U wind anomalies got even more impressive on the 00z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 And Box map updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTEDFROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TOSEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPFAMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOWTOTALS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITSPREVIOUS RUNS. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTIONOF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. DID NOT WANT TO MAKEDRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITHJUST ONE MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTOCLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANSREMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BESUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPFMAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THEUPPER LOW.STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THEPARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTTONIGHT. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. APROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NWFLANK OF THE LOW...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE MID LEVEL LOWCENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVYSNOW BANDS...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THISFAR OUT. MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFTFAR ENOUGH NW IN INTENSE CYCLONES.WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY INCOLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...BUT WE ARE STILLEXPECTING AN OVERALL 18 TO 24 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BESTMESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PERHOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGHPRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILLCREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARDWARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UPTO 35 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPHINLAND...TO 45-50 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BERULED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.WITH THE LOW NEARLY STALLING NEAR CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...LIGHT TOOCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALEBANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPTFALLING TO 15-20 TONIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY INTHE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSSSOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TOMIDDLE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I doubt Cape Cod only gets 2-3", what is BOX thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 BOX snow map is going to bust low big time on Cape Cod, MA, especially eastern parts of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 these are the storms we live for goodluck everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 change to rain I doubt Cape Cod only gets 2-3", what is BOX thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 change to rain NO, not this time, its not changing to rain until later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 but its still going to change to rain lol NO, not this time, its not changing to rain until later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NO, not this time, its not changing to rain until later in the day.Don't get blown away into the sea. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 min is 0 max is 16 for the eastern cape it all depends when things change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 lol...first thing I looked at when I woke up was the 6z NAM. So much for consistency. NAM/GFS are a nice hit up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 taking a closer look at the RGEM , that deformation banding was definitely a little heavier and a tic west of the previous run. The overall track looks almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cant sleep much, way too amped. Just a bit if dozing off and a touch of R.E.M.I have been living on 1 to 2 hours of REM for 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 i think me and you are going to get into it for awhile taking a closer look at the RGEM , that deformation banding was definitely a little heavier and a tic west of the previous run. The overall track looks almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take RGEM/EURO/GGEM over the NAM anyway of the week and win every time.Why would anyone look at the NAM right now with its run to run continuity of 0 covered in sht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why would anyone look at the NAM right now with its run to run continuity of 0 covered in sht.It's tough to trust the 12km NAM when the 4km NAM doesn't match it. It's more like the RGEM....ORH-BED-PWM for the deform jack. Ouch for WNE-NYC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's tough to trust the 12km NAM when the 4km NAM doesn't match it. It's more like the RGEM....ORH-BED-PWM for the deform jack. Ouch for WNE-NYC too.The GFS is still ridiculously different for areas just NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 6z MAV is puking 8's in the snow cats everywhere for 12z tomorrow and 12z Wed. I'll give the old MOS credit...it was piling on the 6s and 8s for awhile before the deterministic models had this. 0z MEX has an 8 for Fri too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It's tough to trust the 12km NAM when the 4km NAM doesn't match it. It's more like the RGEM....ORH-BED-PWM for the deform jack. Ouch for WNE-NYC too. Playing with fire down at OKX. Either high fives all around, or some explaining to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Playing with fire down at OKX. Either high fives all around, or some explaining to do.They invested stock in grocery chains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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