CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm puzzled by the lower totals for the Cape - at this stage. There's no indication in any model other than the old Euro that there will be anything must mostly snow for about 50/70% of the Cape. Indeed it looks like a 15-25" type deal even here. Even the WSI RPM model is showing a modest 16+ for the Cape. It's unforunate that Cape Cod is lost in the shuffle with the Boston Mets (see blizzard of 2005)...but it seems like they are taking the GFS temps (which everyone knows has a warm bias) and running with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Should start a thread for people looking to escape the subsidence zone and find deformation land. Haha, this thread would be dead if you did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm puzzled by the lower totals for the Cape - at this stage. There's no indication in any model other than the old Euro that there will be anything must mostly snow for about 50/70% of the Cape. Indeed it looks like a 15-25" type deal even here. Bufkit is 39.8 for you on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Really want to wait up for the Euro. Really should sleep. Law school semester starts again tomorrow, and tomorrow night is not going to be a sleep night. I just made a pot of coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just made a pot of coffee. This forum needs a like button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Don't Ever Fly Spirit. Had to fly them for this Historic Quest and Journey. $50 for a One way Bag check and $45 for a One way Carry On! OK - So: 2 Things as I get ready to board my flight from LAX. 1. WHAT do I look for when l I fly over the Baby Monster being birthed when I fly from AGT. Lauderdale to Boston (Couldn't get s reasonable flight to PVD)? I will have a better view of this storm than any of you, and for That, I am So Deeply honored. But I must be trained on What the heck to look for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I was looking at the older ukie I think guys.... My mistake..... FYI I saw the same one, It did not update the panel until a few minutes later when i refreshed it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bufkit numbers for GFS just came in, now I know why Harvey went 24-30,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I started a subsidence/deform circle-jerk thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bufkit numbers for GFS just came in, now I know why Harvey went 24-30,wow KBED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bufkit numbers for GFS just came in, now I know why Harvey went 24-30,wowhow about this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I hear, man. As Scott intimated earlier, I lost mine suddenly in March, while my life was already in shambles. I still struggle every day, mentally, but gotta take it day to day. This $hit helps Tough cuz I made a bold call for my bro and my mom back home in NJ for this which is why I practically jumped off the ledge when gfs confirmed the later capture. I was hoping this would give them some comfort for a day. Oh well, Im still feeling OK for my backyard though. 12-18" is still solid just not historic. anyway, good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just made a pot of coffee. Why are any of us staying up? What's the Euro going to show that's going to be any better than every other model? I need a new hobby! Bufkit is 39.8 for you on the nam I just realized I don't have a shovel. When's Morch? I refuse to own a snowblower or riding mower. I may really, really regret that stand in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 thread to obsess on banding http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45515-crunch-time-the-great-debate/#entry3297482 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 BDR please Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 KBED 24.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too. That's what lollis are for. You can write in the text or draw favored areas on a social media post, saying isolated amounts of 2 or 3 feet possible. Because I can guarantee you the only number people will remember form this forecast will be the 30+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 24.2 thank, man. About what expected because that is what I got applying the 1/3 rule to the NAM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 BDR please Steve. 12.9 GFS 14.9 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Thats the problem with stalled storms you rot in either. Fronto wallop then stall you get crushed or its wind blown shattered dendrites for hours, been there done that probably 5-8 times in my life, but also been on the other end 5-8 times. Boxing Day. Hours of non-accumulating needles on a roaring wind. Now, cast that memory into the fire! Destroy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Waiting up for euro to confirm shift east and then go to bed with a pit in my stomach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 how about this area? 26.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Still feeling the 14-18" up here? I'm leaning 10-14" right now. These E/ESE ticks with the mid level centers have me thinking the best goodies stay to my SE. I'd like to be at my old place in Auburn for this. Gut says the same, but it's going to be a delicate thing to back off what we have at this point and keep a pretty picture going. If you take 2/3 of the NAM and compare to the GFS, 14-18" is pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's what lollis are for. You can write in the text or draw favored areas on a social media post, saying isolated amounts of 2 or 3 feet possible. Because I can guarantee you the only number people will remember form this forecast will be the 30+ amounts. Yeah, everyone always remembers the high amounts. I once forecasted 6-12" for a storm for a client back in the Vday 2007 storm. They got 6.5-7" with plenty of sleet (which was also forecasted) and then asked me why the forecast busted saying "I thought we were getting a foot"...I wanted to rip my eyes out. I usualy prefer a smaller range, but that storm was difficult to forecast with the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DT UPDATE THE SHIFT EAST REAL OR NOT? right NOW my Model of choice is the RGEM --high resolution shore range Canadian model Quite frankly I don't know. For those of us who are convinced that the shift east is the REAL deal may I remind you of some of the recent flaws / busts of the NAM GFS Just within this particular event some of these models which are now shifting east with the Low and the heaviest snow have also on a few mode runs showed huge snow mounts close to what the European model was showing. So let's not say this as a case where the GFS has never showed huge snow amounts in NYC / NJ or Philly because that is not true. It is safe to say that the GFS has not had as much snow as the European... But to argue that the GFS model has never had as much knows the European is just well wrong. If you take a look of the temperatures in and around the VA MD you wIll see the temperatures are much too warm to support snow. at 11pm DCA is 46. Even Winchester is 37 with dew point fo 32. The HRRR (high resolution shore range model) has precipitation going over snow around 4AM in Northwest a AND 6AM in dca. It only snow in DCA fpor a few houts but it snows pretty good over the northwest 25% of VA central and Western Maryland into at least Noon. So those areas could in fact the actually get 4 inches of snow... but NOT DC and the immediate metro area. With regard to the issue of huge snow amounts in Philly NJ and NYC and interior se NY... Obviously the issue has to do with where does the main ocean low develop? The early Monday morning models are now showing a much more east track and that is entirely possible. However it is not at all certain and perhaps the European track might be correct after all. So if we take down the big snow amounts too far and it turns out that these short range models are too far to the east ...we end up with another complication in this difficult forecast ! Looking at the latest actual upper air data and soundings I am inclined to shift things more to the east and lower the snow mounts in Philly NJ and NYC. I do this not because of the weather models per se but I am noticing that the Friday night Saturday Low from two days ago ....which was supposed to move up into southeastern Canada and become a 50 / 50 Low ....has fallen apart and is much weaker than some of the data had suggested yesterday.This in turn means that the system coming off the coast of the Middle Atlantic states on Monday can swing further out into the Atlantic and this may be what some of the short range models are seeing a more east track. As I have said many times before for a Middle Atlantic snowstorm -- not new England --you need ideally a -AO... a -NAO and 50 / 50 low. The AO is only neutral and the 50/50 Low has fallen apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Waiting up for euro to confirm shift east and then go to bed with a pit in my stomach wait wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 26.6thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 24.2 EWB? I'm about 4 miles NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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